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From @commbankerguy | https://twitter.com/commbankerguy https://twitter.com/commbankerguy | on Twitter on evaluating your bank, where more than one factor shoul
by howmayiannoyyou 4y ago
From @commbankerguy | https://twitter.com/commbankerguy https://twitter.com/commbankerguy | on Twitter on evaluating your bank, where more than one factor should be in play to probably be of concern:
https://twitter.com/commbankerguy/status/1634637082659364866 https://twitter.com/commbankerguy/status/1634637082659364866
1. Red flag if cash as % of assets or deposits is below 3%. Meaning can they handle a withdrawal of up to 3% or is cash tied up in bonds.
2. Red flag if tangible capital is under 4% after looking at bond portfolio as % of tangible capital (this one wasn't totally clear, but I think get the idea).
3. Red flag if over 20% of liabilities are brokered deposits and/or funds borrowed from FHLB. If the bank is not well capitalized those funds become restricted/unavailable.
Also:
High concentration of consumer deposits is less likely to face destabilizing run.
For example @commbankerguy says:
"If 50% in brokered/FHLB and capital level of 5%, I would recommend you move your money if over $250k." https://twitter.com/commbankerguy/status/1634764850126520320?s=20 https://twitter.com/commbankerguy/status/1634764850126520320...
@Citrini7 shorted $SIVB in late 2022 after marking their holding to market and finding their book value was negative. https://twitter.com/Citrini7/status/1583593158738612226?s=20 https://twitter.com/Citrini7/status/1583593158738612226?s=20
Then this dude created an SVB recovery analysis that is legend:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13OyOLDePh85Wna5xcyTihfvWgMKI8Y4ejtLydKvXUrg/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13OyOLDePh85Wna5xcyTi...
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]