4 ms·
There is basically no real chance the risk of default was actually 12%. I will absolutely buy the risk of default could be 4-5%, which is why you don't see me f
by icelancer 4y ago
There is basically no real chance the risk of default was actually 12%. I will absolutely buy the risk of default could be 4-5%, which is why you don't see me filling my pockets with USDC at 94-96c.
Below 90c with the information we had on Friday was a silly price.
- TheAlchemist 4y agoYou must have some very sophisticated models to be able to distinguish between a risk of 4-5% and 12%. Impressive !
- icelancer 4y agoNot really. Just look at the press releases, the data, and verify USDC's backing, down to the T-Bill number. The balances don't support a significant risk of default outside of a systemic collapse (of which USDC will be the least of our worries). Do I think there is a small chance of a systemic collapse? Sure, the Fed and the Biden administration are completely capable of blundering. Is that risk double digits? Let's be real. Again, even if the real risk is as low as 1-2% (which I think it is), on a risk-adjusted return on a limited/capped amount for 4% ROI short-term trade is not a good use of funds for most portfolios. Kelly Criterion and so forth.