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1. Climate is a long-term average. Long-time averages are much simpler to predict than individual outcomes. You cannot predict the result of a coin toss, but yo
by IngoBlechschmid 4y ago
1. Climate is a long-term average. Long-time averages are much simpler to predict than individual outcomes. You cannot predict the result of a coin toss, but you can be reasonably confident that among 1000 tosses there will be between 400 and 600 occurrences of heads.
2. Scientists, especially young ones, have an incentive to challenge dominating scientific views because that is how you make yourself known in the scientific community. Being known can be transformed to getting the next academic position.
- fwungy 4y agoWe have millions of years of climate history of which only a tiny fraction has substantial data. The rest is theoretical data that can only be verified by a web of theoretical means. Variance accumulates across models. The less actual data you have the wider the variance is on your estimators. When your data is mostly projected the confidence interval on your outcome makes it meaningless, e.g. average temperatures will change by plus or minus 20 degrees.