I cant tell whether the parent comment is disingenuous though it looks a lot like it, but I will take it at face value. The models created by the oil companies

I cant tell whether the parent comment is disingenuous though it looks a lot like it, but I will take it at face value. The models created by the oil companies back in the 70s seem to be “breathtakingly accurate” [1] Second, the problem with your analogy is that with football you expect the prediction to be X team will win, and similarly expect the predictions to be X weather event at $place will occur. The problem with your expectations of predictions regarding the latter is the sample space. The sample space is so large that extreme weather events will occur $somewhere. Predicting exactly where and their trajectories is difficult due to chaos and the complexity of the system. There is a bound on our capacity to predict exact events long ahead of time. However, what we can do is give a probability of the event occurring over a large enough region. When you scale said region to the earth, we can ignore very small details and focus on the bigger picture, which is that the variance in weather in creases. The problem with an increasing variance is that extreme events occur more frequently in all directions. Meaning high and low temperatures, droughts and floods and so on. To observe this in action, a year or so ago europe had severe floods that killed many people and simultaneously over the next summer experienced historic droughts. The sample space strikes again and we saw historic droughts in China too. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-climate-change-global-warming-research https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-clima... [2] Firmament, by Dr Simon Clark