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Timing is exactly the challenge! The share price of $SIVB actually climbed pretty significantly since the prediction back in January before collapsing this week
by roland35 4y ago
Timing is exactly the challenge! The share price of $SIVB actually climbed pretty significantly since the prediction back in January before collapsing this week.
You don't need to look too hard to see examples of share prices doing weird things despite reality ($BBBY most recently)!
- neop1x 4y agoThis is very true. I have also tried shorting couple of times and while I got lucky a few times, there were trades where my PUT options expired just a week before a big downturn. :D And they say "market is perfect" or something like that in the sense that everything is priced in. So if you wanted to short in already-bearish market, the implied volatility would make it cost-prohibitive. And if you would try shorting in "good times" where IV is low, often you would see bullish market and your option value just slowly decreasing to 0... It is always about timing and predicting the future, one way or another.