Isn't the question though, if you acted on the set of companies/banks that were showing these signs, how often would you be right and saved your money (or made

Isn't the question though, if you acted on the set of companies/banks that were showing these signs, how often would you be right and saved your money (or made money)? The analyses that tell you what led to a particular crash are hard to stomach as a reliable bet for the next time. I just saw this story: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230310718/20-banks-that-are-sitting-on-huge-potential-securities-lossesas-was-svb https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230310718/20-... ("20 banks that are sitting on huge potential securities losses—as was SVB") Would you short Ally right now? Hard to make such a bet.