4 ms·

Yes. Their reasoning can still be interesting.

• kqr 4y ago
  But is it more interesting than the reasoning of the losers? I'm tempted to say the losers' reasoning is more interesting. A winner's reasoning could be completely unrelated to the event at hand and we'd never know the difference. A loser's reasoning is definitely wrong in some way, so we can learn something from it.
  • mym1990 4y ago
    Generally yes, that’s how engineers figured out where to reinforce war planes so they could survive longer in battle. In markets the loser’s reasoning often comes down to poor timing. They see similar red flags but can’t quite catch the right time. Predicting markets is relatively straightforward, predicting when something will happen is infinitely harder :)
    • kqr 4y ago
      I take issue with the characterisation of "poor timing" which makes it sound like a matter of accurately predicting an event occurring at some instant in time. Failure to do that teaches us comparatively little, much like failure to win the lottery. In reality, it's about picking a position that one can hold through various trajectories and that is profitable in most of the more likely ones. If one has assessed the actual trajectory at a lower probability than reasonable, that's still something we can learn from.
      • mym1990 4y ago
        I mean I can give you that strategy right now: go buy index funds. You can be right 99% of the time and still lose money because the market always rewards based on risk. Conversely you can be right 30% of the time and make billions. With market timing you don't need to predict the instant something will happen, your time horizon really should depend on what your drawdown is. The predictions don't have to be single events, it can be a market environment. Timing a bear market when everyone is bullish, etc... Every time you short the market you effectively open yourself to infinite loss, whether you are leveraged or not. There are effective hedging strategies in place, but unless you're doing this for a living or a very serious hobby, its tough to figure all the pieces out. That is why staying on the buy side can be pretty helpful for not losing one's shirt.
        • hd95489 4y ago
          If you are short via options you have limited risks but you pay the premium
          • windexh8er 4y ago
            Most people buying options don't primarily buy one side. They exercise some sort of inverted position as well to cover. Those who play one sided, short term, options can often be referred to as gamblers.
  • achr2 4y ago
    With zero external correlation, both have equal merit.
  • ianai 4y ago
    It’s dubious asking the winners of any survivorship bias. I’d say hear what they’ve got to say(if you’ve got time), but never take it as gospel until you’re sure they have earned that respect. A broken clock is accurate twice a day, but the rest of the day is full of times it’s obviously wrong if you cross check with external sources.