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It's not that crazy considering we saw 10 years of 0% interest rates... well for the past 10 years. If anything it was the status quo. Only in hindsight does it
by boc 4y ago
It's not that crazy considering we saw 10 years of 0% interest rates... well for the past 10 years. If anything it was the status quo. Only in hindsight does it look crazy.
- JohnFen 4y agoThat the interest rates were at 0% for so long implies that the rates will have to be going up in the near future. They can't stay at 0 forever, and 10 years is a very long time. The obviously risky bet is that the rates would stay 0.
- boc 4y agoThat's just gambler's fallacy. If you said the same thing in 2018 you'd have just as much evidence, but you would have been wrong.
- JohnFen 4y agoHow would I have been wrong? They didn't stay at zero forever.
- boc 4y agoIn 2018 some countries had started experimenting with negative interest rates, so 0 isn’t the lower bound. Secondly, you would have been wrong for the next ~3 years. That’s a long time to be on the wrong side of a bet. Long term nothing is guaranteed of course.