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> "The Perestroika Deception"[1] in which he says that Perestroika is a strategic retreat because the Soviets know they are too far behind technologically to ha

by jabl 4y ago

> "The Perestroika Deception"[1] in which he says that Perestroika is a strategic retreat because the Soviets know they are too far behind technologically to have any hope of defeating the west. They will however use that retreat to acquire modern technology and improve their economy so they can ultimately conquer the west. Such generations lasting grand conspiracies just sound too fanciful to take seriously. I think the simpler explanation is that, yes, like the communists before him, Putin is a Russian imperialist. And rumor has it that Putin hates the communists with a fiery passion, for screwing up the grand Russian empire. Putin is doing his best to rekindle the empire, just using a more traditional authoritarian/fascist approach rather than relying on communist ideology. Much of the old ways of working, the propaganda, supporting all kinds of nutjob groups in foreign countries, etc etc., 'maskirovka' if you like, dating back to tsarist times, continued through the communist era and is still a tool in the arsenal they use. No change here. As for doomsday weapons with no defense against them, they have existed since the 1960'ies or so in the guise of ICBM's.

somenameforme 4y ago
ICBMs can, at least in theory, be countered by effective anti-ballistic defense systems. The point of the 'tsunami nukes' is to sidestep that defense.
- lostlogin 4y ago
  I think this thing of theirs is supposed to beat the current systems as Mach 10 is fast. It seems to be getting though in Ukraine but I am not an expert and Russia makes all sorts of claims. If it’s weapons work, it would be beating it’s smaller neighbour. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-hypersonic-missile-strikes-on-ukraine-raise-stakes-for-new-weapons-ea3b2e15 https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-hypersonic-missile-stri...
  - narrator 4y ago
    I think Russia knows that this is a war with NATO for world hegemony and it is going to last a very long time. Maybe a decade or more. Thus, what's the best way to conserve resources and deplete the enemy? Just sit in defensive positions with good logistics and shell while the Ukranians send more and more cannon fodder and the west slowly runs out of armaments. Eventually, they'll send the polish recruits. Then they'll send the rest of Europe, and finally American troops. That's why Russia is going slowly here and not getting out over their skis with the advance. I think China was supposed to not back Russia, but they reneged on the deal. That's the critical thing that went wrong with the western war effort and why Russia's economy did not collapse as was expected.
    - lostlogin 4y ago
      This is one view, the other is that the Russian military and its supplies have been decimated, it’s military smashed and the west has spent a fraction of a fraction of its reserves and none of its armies. Do you really think that Russia isn’t trying to advance? China may come out in the best position, but surely that’s the best that the non western world can hope for?
      - narrator 4y ago
        Russia isn't trying to advance. They withdrew in Kherson in an orderly fashion because they believed the supply lines were too vulnerable. The Ruble did not crash vs. the U.S dollar. In fact it strengthened for a while and it's back to its long-term average[1]. Anecdotal reports from inside Russia from average Russians that I read on other forums seem to show that there is not a lot of economic stress. [1] https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=2Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=2Y
        lostlogin 4y ago
        Yes, but that wasn’t a victory, its was a loss. The earlier retreats were complete collapses. What would you describe the carry on in the Bakhmut region as? That’s chewing up Russian resources at a far higher rate than the western ones, and for a ruined town of little strategic significance.
        somenameforme 4y ago
        This [1] is a map of the war. To locate Bakhmut, find the most critical section of the war and go to the center of it. You will be at or near Bakhmut. Alternatively, locate highway 32 ("H-32") and follow it straight to the frontline. The battle for that city has been going on for about 8 months now; the rhetoric about it being strategically irrelevant only began once the tide began shifting. But I think the real meaning of Bakhmut is not about its strategic value. What really wins battles, and wars alike, is morale. This is why things like propaganda and disinformation plays such a significant role. You try to keep your own side's morale high, while doing everything to break that of the enemy. If we imagine war only in terms of strategy then it's very possible that something like defense in depth [2] would be optimal for Ukraine. It's a massive country with lots of well fortified locations. Let the Russian forces overextend and suffer severe casualties advancing on ever fresh fortifications. But the problem is morale. Each time you fall back you suffer a morale loss, and each time the enemy achieves victory they receive a morale boost. And in Bakhmut this has become critical. Both sides have suffered immense losses there, and so the ultimate conclusion of that battle is going to have a tremendous impact on morale. I think this is the main reason there's so much dispute on the proper strategy. You have to measure an immeasurable (morale/morale impact) in order to determine the proper action, all the while balancing this against the reality on the ground. [1] - https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/uk https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/uk [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth

by jabl 4y ago

somenameforme 4y ago

ICBMs can, at least in theory, be countered by effective anti-ballistic defense systems. The point of the 'tsunami nukes' is to sidestep that defense.

lostlogin 4y ago
I think this thing of theirs is supposed to beat the current systems as Mach 10 is fast. It seems to be getting though in Ukraine but I am not an expert and Russia makes all sorts of claims. If it’s weapons work, it would be beating it’s smaller neighbour. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-hypersonic-missile-strikes-on-ukraine-raise-stakes-for-new-weapons-ea3b2e15 https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-hypersonic-missile-stri...
- narrator 4y ago
  I think Russia knows that this is a war with NATO for world hegemony and it is going to last a very long time. Maybe a decade or more. Thus, what's the best way to conserve resources and deplete the enemy? Just sit in defensive positions with good logistics and shell while the Ukranians send more and more cannon fodder and the west slowly runs out of armaments. Eventually, they'll send the polish recruits. Then they'll send the rest of Europe, and finally American troops. That's why Russia is going slowly here and not getting out over their skis with the advance. I think China was supposed to not back Russia, but they reneged on the deal. That's the critical thing that went wrong with the western war effort and why Russia's economy did not collapse as was expected.
  - lostlogin 4y ago
    This is one view, the other is that the Russian military and its supplies have been decimated, it’s military smashed and the west has spent a fraction of a fraction of its reserves and none of its armies. Do you really think that Russia isn’t trying to advance? China may come out in the best position, but surely that’s the best that the non western world can hope for?
    - narrator 4y ago
      Russia isn't trying to advance. They withdrew in Kherson in an orderly fashion because they believed the supply lines were too vulnerable. The Ruble did not crash vs. the U.S dollar. In fact it strengthened for a while and it's back to its long-term average[1]. Anecdotal reports from inside Russia from average Russians that I read on other forums seem to show that there is not a lot of economic stress. [1] https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=2Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=2Y
      - lostlogin 4y ago
        Yes, but that wasn’t a victory, its was a loss. The earlier retreats were complete collapses. What would you describe the carry on in the Bakhmut region as? That’s chewing up Russian resources at a far higher rate than the western ones, and for a ruined town of little strategic significance.
        somenameforme 4y ago
        This [1] is a map of the war. To locate Bakhmut, find the most critical section of the war and go to the center of it. You will be at or near Bakhmut. Alternatively, locate highway 32 ("H-32") and follow it straight to the frontline. The battle for that city has been going on for about 8 months now; the rhetoric about it being strategically irrelevant only began once the tide began shifting. But I think the real meaning of Bakhmut is not about its strategic value. What really wins battles, and wars alike, is morale. This is why things like propaganda and disinformation plays such a significant role. You try to keep your own side's morale high, while doing everything to break that of the enemy. If we imagine war only in terms of strategy then it's very possible that something like defense in depth [2] would be optimal for Ukraine. It's a massive country with lots of well fortified locations. Let the Russian forces overextend and suffer severe casualties advancing on ever fresh fortifications. But the problem is morale. Each time you fall back you suffer a morale loss, and each time the enemy achieves victory they receive a morale boost. And in Bakhmut this has become critical. Both sides have suffered immense losses there, and so the ultimate conclusion of that battle is going to have a tremendous impact on morale. I think this is the main reason there's so much dispute on the proper strategy. You have to measure an immeasurable (morale/morale impact) in order to determine the proper action, all the while balancing this against the reality on the ground. [1] - https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/uk https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/uk [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_in_depth