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The crypto market cap is about 1 trillion USD. Now suppose all current crypto holders want to exchange their crypto for dollars. How many dollars do they get, c
by gizmo 4y ago
The crypto market cap is about 1 trillion USD. Now suppose all current crypto holders want to exchange their crypto for dollars. How many dollars do they get, collectively? The market cap is 1 trillion, but for them to get dollars somebody else has to put up those dollars in exchange for the crypto. And that's a problem, because everybody who thinks crypto is a good idea is already in crypto, which means there is no sizable group of people to sell into.
If all current Apple shareholders decide to get rid of Apple an inflow of 2.5 trillion is needed. The new group of shareholders will like Apple less than the current group of shareholders, so the stock would get sold at a slight discount (10% maybe). The universe of investors who are willing to buy Apple shares at a discount is enormous, so it's fine.
With crypto, not so much. The first 100bn you might be able to sell to people at a reasonable discount, but then you're out of buyers for sure. So who are the holders of the remaining 900bn worth of crypto going to sell to? How big of a discount do they need to offer to get the dollars they want? 30%? 60%? 99%?
With crypto the market cap is an illusion because when people sell crypto en masse the price will trend towards the intrinsic value (which is zero). That's what the parent means with "The money is not there. Some folks will lose. Everyone knows it."
- senttoschool 4y agoThis is called having "intrinsic value". In the event that all Apple shareholders want to sell, there will still be a market for it because Apple produces goods and will do share buy backs and give dividends. There will be a discount like you said, but the intrinsic value is there. There is no intrinsic value in bitcoin or 99% of crypto.
- Lapsa 4y agoCrypto has intrinsic value. It provides named globally immutable lists. As they can be named anything you like and may or may not enforce additional whatnot rules - it leads to a lot of confusion (gr8 4 crooks).
- frankreyes 4y ago> This is called having "intrinsic value". It should be clear by now that the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is the USD. Because the only practical problem it solves is to bridge USD to USD transactions as USD-BTC-USD.