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AI winter isn't an issue anymore and won't be - the breakthrough in public perception already happened for its first time at this scale.

by siva7 4y ago

russdill 4y ago
I am curious if AI is successful if an AI backlash is coming. Perhaps one of the existing political parties or a new political party taking up the mantle of regulating or outright banning of AI. Or even just attacks on AI researchers and institutions.
- ethanbond 4y ago
  I mean… the fear/goal of AI success, depending on who you ask, is social and economic upheaval. I suspect there will be a lot of resistance as it “succeeds.”
  - russdill 4y ago
    Could make "AI revolution" take on an entirely different meaning
  - pksebben 4y ago
    it's already happening. Stable diffusion forums regularly get brigaded, and there are lawsuits in the works against stability ai and midjourney. Those lawsuits are nominally about copyright, but one gets the sense that it's really about putting the breaks on developing the tech. I kind of get it, too. If I made my money making art this would scare me. What I wonder is what's gonna happen when it's [ artists, accountants, copywriters, bloggers, designers, programmers, etc, etc, etc]. I see problems coming.
    - p1esk 4y ago
      The resistance if futile. The amount of effort currently going into making generative models like Stable Diffusion or ChatGPT is insane. It's the fastest changing subfield in ML. These models are getting better and better every month, with no sign of plateauing in the near future. I expect decent music and video generation models appearing within the next 2 years. There's no way to stop the progress.
ethanbond 4y ago
Why is that a perception question rather than a delivery question? We still don’t really know how/if the current crop of AI is going to deliver. Even if there are a lot of great applications for these things (I think there are), it’s not clear they’re going to be truly transformative?
- osigurdson 4y ago
  >> truly transformative For me, it is already pretty transformative. I use ChatGPT at least as much as the regular internet - probably more.
  - ethanbond 4y ago
    Out of curiosity: to do what? Not just as a hobby/toy?
    - recursive 4y ago
      Today it told me how to write a powershell command to make a git commit that includes the current timestamp in the commit message. For example. I could have figured it out elseways, but would have taken >20x the time.
      - ethanbond 4y ago
        I don’t see how this type of usage (which is real/valuable) adds up to “as much or more” than the actual internet.
        p1esk 4y ago
        "The actual internet" allowed people to get information 20x times faster than before (e.g. vs physically going to a library, or writing a letter to an expert). If we now have a technology that lets us get answers 20x times faster than what we had before it, then yes - I see this technology as a huge advancement over the "old" internet.
    - 4y ago
dangero 4y ago
Public interest wanes quickly if the technology doesn’t continue to be magic https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle
spion 4y ago
Its not the first time. Chess was the first time.

AI winter isn't an issue anymore and won't be - the breakthrough in public perception already happened for its first time at this scale.

by siva7 4y ago

AI winter isn't an issue anymore and won't be - the breakthrough in public perception already happened for its first time at this scale.

russdill 4y ago

I am curious if AI is successful if an AI backlash is coming. Perhaps one of the existing political parties or a new political party taking up the mantle of regulating or outright banning of AI. Or even just attacks on AI researchers and institutions.

ethanbond 4y ago
I mean… the fear/goal of AI success, depending on who you ask, is social and economic upheaval. I suspect there will be a lot of resistance as it “succeeds.”
- russdill 4y ago
  Could make "AI revolution" take on an entirely different meaning
- pksebben 4y ago
  it's already happening. Stable diffusion forums regularly get brigaded, and there are lawsuits in the works against stability ai and midjourney. Those lawsuits are nominally about copyright, but one gets the sense that it's really about putting the breaks on developing the tech. I kind of get it, too. If I made my money making art this would scare me. What I wonder is what's gonna happen when it's [ artists, accountants, copywriters, bloggers, designers, programmers, etc, etc, etc]. I see problems coming.
  - p1esk 4y ago
    The resistance if futile. The amount of effort currently going into making generative models like Stable Diffusion or ChatGPT is insane. It's the fastest changing subfield in ML. These models are getting better and better every month, with no sign of plateauing in the near future. I expect decent music and video generation models appearing within the next 2 years. There's no way to stop the progress.

ethanbond 4y ago

Why is that a perception question rather than a delivery question? We still don’t really know how/if the current crop of AI is going to deliver. Even if there are a lot of great applications for these things (I think there are), it’s not clear they’re going to be truly transformative?

osigurdson 4y ago
>> truly transformative For me, it is already pretty transformative. I use ChatGPT at least as much as the regular internet - probably more.
- ethanbond 4y ago
  Out of curiosity: to do what? Not just as a hobby/toy?
  - recursive 4y ago
    Today it told me how to write a powershell command to make a git commit that includes the current timestamp in the commit message. For example. I could have figured it out elseways, but would have taken >20x the time.
    - ethanbond 4y ago
      I don’t see how this type of usage (which is real/valuable) adds up to “as much or more” than the actual internet.
      - p1esk 4y ago
        "The actual internet" allowed people to get information 20x times faster than before (e.g. vs physically going to a library, or writing a letter to an expert). If we now have a technology that lets us get answers 20x times faster than what we had before it, then yes - I see this technology as a huge advancement over the "old" internet.
  - 4y ago

dangero 4y ago

Public interest wanes quickly if the technology doesn’t continue to be magic https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

spion 4y ago

Its not the first time. Chess was the first time.