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One would think new manufacturing jobs in the US would be increasingly robotic over that timeframe.

by natch 4y ago

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> would think new manufacturing jobs in the US would be increasingly robotic over that timeframe We're a long way from robots that can look at my roof, climb it, install solar panels and hook them up to my power supply.
- natch 4y ago
  You call that manufacturing?
philipkglass 4y ago
They probably will be. Solar manufacturing productivity per full time employee has grown rapidly in the last 7 years and I expect the same in the next 7 years. That said, total solar equipment output is growing even faster so I think that projections of robust job growth are correct.
kube-system 4y ago
And many expected the demise of office jobs in the 90s as computers took over. What actually happened is that companies leveraged the respective strengths of both automation and labor to increase growth.
quadrifoliate 4y ago
Someone needs to bring in, control, service, and oil the robots, and take them off the assembly line when they malfunction. Thinking of new jobs as anywhere close to 100% robotic is a misunderstanding.
TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
I did CapEx at Tesla. Almost no human intervention is required for the solar line in buffalo; I.E. Completely automated. The jetsons made us think there will be some use to general, bipedal robots. Turns out the robots are just giant machines that pushes a panel through, applys a special glue, and stacks the metals, glass and silicon. There's some general assembly at the end, but the amount of people on the line is a rounding error to what it takes to keep that line running. It takes hundreds of people to ensure that automated line doesn't stop. Just because we reached automation, doesn't mean we need less people. With automation comes scale. With scale comes new problems and new needs. As robotics takes over, giga factorys will become terafactorys. where factorys used to have thousands of employees, we now have hundreds of thousands. Imagine the terrafactory of the future that employes millions of people, from supply chain to robot whispers and prompt engineerss.
- dashundchen 4y ago
  > Almost no human intervention is required for the solar line in buffalo; I.E. Completely automated. Did Tesla ever actually produce solar roofs in Buffalo at any scale? Panasonic pulled out of the venture and NYS sold or scrapped most of the equipment they purchased for the factory.
  - TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
    well, solar roofs? not really. Depends on your definition of scale... I guess i should had said the 'energy line'. Tesla produces a number of products including charging infrastructure, solar (Roof, and panels), and has a very large fab capability there.
m463 4y ago
Maybe not robotic, but traditionally the US has ALWAYS (~1776) had labor shortages/expensive labor. So it has always expanded manufacturing from via efficiency instead of using more workers. So automation of all sorts.

One would think new manufacturing jobs in the US would be increasingly robotic over that timeframe.

by natch 4y ago

One would think new manufacturing jobs in the US would be increasingly robotic over that timeframe.

> would think new manufacturing jobs in the US would be increasingly robotic over that timeframe We're a long way from robots that can look at my roof, climb it, install solar panels and hook them up to my power supply.

natch 4y ago
You call that manufacturing?

philipkglass 4y ago

They probably will be. Solar manufacturing productivity per full time employee has grown rapidly in the last 7 years and I expect the same in the next 7 years. That said, total solar equipment output is growing even faster so I think that projections of robust job growth are correct.

kube-system 4y ago

And many expected the demise of office jobs in the 90s as computers took over. What actually happened is that companies leveraged the respective strengths of both automation and labor to increase growth.

quadrifoliate 4y ago

Someone needs to bring in, control, service, and oil the robots, and take them off the assembly line when they malfunction. Thinking of new jobs as anywhere close to 100% robotic is a misunderstanding.

TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago

I did CapEx at Tesla. Almost no human intervention is required for the solar line in buffalo; I.E. Completely automated. The jetsons made us think there will be some use to general, bipedal robots. Turns out the robots are just giant machines that pushes a panel through, applys a special glue, and stacks the metals, glass and silicon. There's some general assembly at the end, but the amount of people on the line is a rounding error to what it takes to keep that line running. It takes hundreds of people to ensure that automated line doesn't stop. Just because we reached automation, doesn't mean we need less people. With automation comes scale. With scale comes new problems and new needs. As robotics takes over, giga factorys will become terafactorys. where factorys used to have thousands of employees, we now have hundreds of thousands. Imagine the terrafactory of the future that employes millions of people, from supply chain to robot whispers and prompt engineerss.

dashundchen 4y ago
> Almost no human intervention is required for the solar line in buffalo; I.E. Completely automated. Did Tesla ever actually produce solar roofs in Buffalo at any scale? Panasonic pulled out of the venture and NYS sold or scrapped most of the equipment they purchased for the factory.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
  well, solar roofs? not really. Depends on your definition of scale... I guess i should had said the 'energy line'. Tesla produces a number of products including charging infrastructure, solar (Roof, and panels), and has a very large fab capability there.

m463 4y ago

Maybe not robotic, but traditionally the US has ALWAYS (~1776) had labor shortages/expensive labor. So it has always expanded manufacturing from via efficiency instead of using more workers. So automation of all sorts.