3 ms·

So a new target for /r/wallstreetbets?

by xur17 4y ago

WJW 4y ago
Perhaps, but probably not. Just doing some napkin math, to get to ten billion in withdrawals (ie only 5% of total assets of SV bank) you would need a million wall street bets subscribers to withdraw 10k each. Not a million to deposit it first and then retract it, a million retail subscribers who already had at least 10k deposited in this bank that mainly serves startups. I don't think it's very likely. Also, it would still be extremely illegal to arrange this with the express purpose of causing a bank run. The excuse of "yes but it was on r/wallstreetbets" is not probably very impressive to the SEC.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  While it’s unlikely we’re going to see a meme stock moment, a bank run by a collection of risk adverse founders already facing a challenging macro pulling their deposits is entirely possible. And those cash balances are likely much more than 10k assuming runway liquidity. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086853 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086853 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086888 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086888
  - WJW 4y ago
    Yes but people rationally pulling money from a failing bank is very different than a subreddit banding together to kill the bank on purpose.
    - resters 4y ago
      It really shouldn't matter. An elevator full of people shouldn't fail just because they all jump in unison, so long as the number of people / weight is below the maximum capacity. We view banking differently because ultimately banking is political and powerful people benefit from being able to leverage without a pre-defined plan to handle some aspects of the downside risk, even though creating such a plan is straightforward. Creating such a plan would surface the cost of the plan in advance and it's easier to pretend it was an "impossible" and unanticipated phenomenon rather than just greed.

3 ms·

So a new target for /r/wallstreetbets?

by xur17 4y ago

So a new target for /r/wallstreetbets?

WJW 4y ago
Perhaps, but probably not. Just doing some napkin math, to get to ten billion in withdrawals (ie only 5% of total assets of SV bank) you would need a million wall street bets subscribers to withdraw 10k each. Not a million to deposit it first and then retract it, a million retail subscribers who already had at least 10k deposited in this bank that mainly serves startups. I don't think it's very likely. Also, it would still be extremely illegal to arrange this with the express purpose of causing a bank run. The excuse of "yes but it was on r/wallstreetbets" is not probably very impressive to the SEC.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  While it’s unlikely we’re going to see a meme stock moment, a bank run by a collection of risk adverse founders already facing a challenging macro pulling their deposits is entirely possible. And those cash balances are likely much more than 10k assuming runway liquidity. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086853 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086853 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086888 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086888
  - WJW 4y ago
    Yes but people rationally pulling money from a failing bank is very different than a subreddit banding together to kill the bank on purpose.
    - resters 4y ago
      It really shouldn't matter. An elevator full of people shouldn't fail just because they all jump in unison, so long as the number of people / weight is below the maximum capacity. We view banking differently because ultimately banking is political and powerful people benefit from being able to leverage without a pre-defined plan to handle some aspects of the downside risk, even though creating such a plan is straightforward. Creating such a plan would surface the cost of the plan in advance and it's easier to pretend it was an "impossible" and unanticipated phenomenon rather than just greed.