3 ms·

This is an interesting re-look because in '23 we are now starting to see what the next big wave could be, and it is obviously generative AI. If I took the diagr

by sulam 4y ago

This is an interesting re-look because in '23 we are now starting to see what the next big wave could be, and it is obviously generative AI. If I took the diagram on the blog post and extended it, it would be something like the interaction model today being discrete and human-powered, but now we can envision a future where poking at things becomes an outdated model and computing comes to us. Voice assistants were a misnomer, they were voice UIs, but LLMs could potentially be the assistant we never got from Alexa, and transform how we use computers entirely.

sfvisser 4y ago
AI models might transform how we use computers, but will it also change the outcome? Will it make society more productive, efficient and generate more growth? Or will it just provide more forms of entertainment, maybe provide some convenience. Or worse make the bureaucracies of life even more impenetrable? Don’t know the answer, but as with software/internet in general we need to at least watch out for false sense of progress. I personally hope the next big wave will be somewhere along the IoT line and physical automation, agri-tech, health-tech, where software transcends the virtual and finally start automating the physical.
bruce511 4y ago
It's really too early to tell what the long term impact of LLMs will be. I know it's new, and exciting, and so on, but we saw the same hype with VR, with 3D TVs and so on. It's perhaps unfortunate that the high-profile one is made by a company with AI in the name. This is confusing media, and by extension, non-techies into into using the word "intelligent". Sure these models pass a Turing test, and they write incredibly well, but they're not intelligent. They're basically a search engine with good grammer. As humans we consider well-spokeness as a proxy for intelligence. How we mock those who speak broken English - they are clearly not intelligent. By contrast the well spoken person is clearly smart (even if what he says is bullshit to those who actually know.) So here is a computer that speaks with excellent grammer. Clearly it is intelligent. Clearly it is out to rule the world. The truth alas is less exotic. By scraping a zillion Web pages, and reading a zillion twitter feeds, it merely parrots what has already been written. Computers used to be good at math (once a sign of intelligence) now they are good at language as well. Is this useful? Sure. There are lots of places where good writing is important. Is it the next wave of computing? It's too early to tell. I have my doubts, but that I'd likely somewhat fueled by the many waves I've seen on the horizon that were ripples when they got to shore.
- ghaff 4y ago
  Yeah, I really have mixed feelings. I've played around with ChatGPT a fair bit. My feeling is that I can imagine it for high school essays or low-effort corporate BS. It might also be useful for someone looking at a blank sheet of paper who really struggles with that. I can even imagine a degree of generating a template for certain types of articles. OTOH, editing from an an existing article can actually be harder and produce lower-quality output than starting at said blank sheet of paper.
grogenaut 4y ago
the hype came so fast with LLMs... it has me sus that it's actually the next big thing... then again I hated the ipad... I think I was right on it long term but also wrong on my positive view of humanity (humans aren't just consumers, why use a consume only device). the internet was/is huge, it took forever for it to become hyped... tho the internet is a hype accelerant. Docker is big, and slow hype. Crypto was actually slow now that I think abput it but it went absurd and died recently (queue explaints on why the blockchain is better than functional programming). Crypto wasn't baked before it got hyped I think is my theory, LLMs feel similar. But we'll see. Maybe I'm just old. I've tried chat gpt for a few months and I've already burnt out on it.

by sulam 4y ago

sfvisser 4y ago

AI models might transform how we use computers, but will it also change the outcome? Will it make society more productive, efficient and generate more growth? Or will it just provide more forms of entertainment, maybe provide some convenience. Or worse make the bureaucracies of life even more impenetrable? Don’t know the answer, but as with software/internet in general we need to at least watch out for false sense of progress. I personally hope the next big wave will be somewhere along the IoT line and physical automation, agri-tech, health-tech, where software transcends the virtual and finally start automating the physical.

bruce511 4y ago

It's really too early to tell what the long term impact of LLMs will be. I know it's new, and exciting, and so on, but we saw the same hype with VR, with 3D TVs and so on. It's perhaps unfortunate that the high-profile one is made by a company with AI in the name. This is confusing media, and by extension, non-techies into into using the word "intelligent". Sure these models pass a Turing test, and they write incredibly well, but they're not intelligent. They're basically a search engine with good grammer. As humans we consider well-spokeness as a proxy for intelligence. How we mock those who speak broken English - they are clearly not intelligent. By contrast the well spoken person is clearly smart (even if what he says is bullshit to those who actually know.) So here is a computer that speaks with excellent grammer. Clearly it is intelligent. Clearly it is out to rule the world. The truth alas is less exotic. By scraping a zillion Web pages, and reading a zillion twitter feeds, it merely parrots what has already been written. Computers used to be good at math (once a sign of intelligence) now they are good at language as well. Is this useful? Sure. There are lots of places where good writing is important. Is it the next wave of computing? It's too early to tell. I have my doubts, but that I'd likely somewhat fueled by the many waves I've seen on the horizon that were ripples when they got to shore.

ghaff 4y ago
Yeah, I really have mixed feelings. I've played around with ChatGPT a fair bit. My feeling is that I can imagine it for high school essays or low-effort corporate BS. It might also be useful for someone looking at a blank sheet of paper who really struggles with that. I can even imagine a degree of generating a template for certain types of articles. OTOH, editing from an an existing article can actually be harder and produce lower-quality output than starting at said blank sheet of paper.

grogenaut 4y ago

the hype came so fast with LLMs... it has me sus that it's actually the next big thing... then again I hated the ipad... I think I was right on it long term but also wrong on my positive view of humanity (humans aren't just consumers, why use a consume only device). the internet was/is huge, it took forever for it to become hyped... tho the internet is a hype accelerant. Docker is big, and slow hype. Crypto was actually slow now that I think abput it but it went absurd and died recently (queue explaints on why the blockchain is better than functional programming). Crypto wasn't baked before it got hyped I think is my theory, LLMs feel similar. But we'll see. Maybe I'm just old. I've tried chat gpt for a few months and I've already burnt out on it.