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I don't think that's exactly what the article is stating. It'd be really hard for an upstart to build a formidable competitor to AWS for example, but that just

I don't think that's exactly what the article is stating. It'd be really hard for an upstart to build a formidable competitor to AWS for example, but that just means that the next breakthroughs will be less about infrastructure and more about applications (not apps, but different use cases). "Innovation, uh, finds a way."

JohnFen 4y ago
Perhaps I was misled by the article analogizing to the auto industry. The auto industry is a great example of exactly what I fear is the future of of the software industry.
- jen20 4y ago
  I'm not sure sure the auto analogy is very good, either. Today there is the choice of a large variety of safe, efficient and performant car models from insanely low prices (once inflation is taken into account), and soon there will be a similar range of choice in EVs. Generally speaking, quality is vastly higher than it has been in most lifetimes too - when did you last see a new car with rust on it, for example? (A few brands, notably Mercedes Benz, produce far worse products than they did in the 90s, but they are the exception). If a wide choice of quality products is the future of the software industry, I'd welcome that, since it certainly is not the state of it today.
  - JohnFen 4y ago
    I am certainly not saying there aren't some advantages to an oligopoly, as the auto industry illustrates. But I do think the disadvantages exceed the advantages by a very large margin, even in the auto industry. For instance, there are aspects of new cars that are ubiquitous and I find so objectionable that they prevent me from buying one, probably ever. If the market were more vibrant, I suspect that I'd have real options aside from "I can't have a newer car". Also, oligopolies don't automatically mean that the products are improved. Usually, it's just the opposite.
    - jen20 4y ago
      The auto industry isn’t really an oligopoly though. Even if you restrict to “manufactured in the US” there are more options now than there were 30 years ago _because_ the three big manufactures were making trash, and competition did the job it was supposed to.
      - JohnFen 4y ago
        > there are more options now than there were 30 years ago I suppose how true this is depends on what sorts of options you're looking for. The number of acceptable cars on the market now, according to my criteria, is lower than it has ever been.

JohnFen 4y ago

Perhaps I was misled by the article analogizing to the auto industry. The auto industry is a great example of exactly what I fear is the future of of the software industry.

jen20 4y ago
I'm not sure sure the auto analogy is very good, either. Today there is the choice of a large variety of safe, efficient and performant car models from insanely low prices (once inflation is taken into account), and soon there will be a similar range of choice in EVs. Generally speaking, quality is vastly higher than it has been in most lifetimes too - when did you last see a new car with rust on it, for example? (A few brands, notably Mercedes Benz, produce far worse products than they did in the 90s, but they are the exception). If a wide choice of quality products is the future of the software industry, I'd welcome that, since it certainly is not the state of it today.
- JohnFen 4y ago
  I am certainly not saying there aren't some advantages to an oligopoly, as the auto industry illustrates. But I do think the disadvantages exceed the advantages by a very large margin, even in the auto industry. For instance, there are aspects of new cars that are ubiquitous and I find so objectionable that they prevent me from buying one, probably ever. If the market were more vibrant, I suspect that I'd have real options aside from "I can't have a newer car". Also, oligopolies don't automatically mean that the products are improved. Usually, it's just the opposite.
  - jen20 4y ago
    The auto industry isn’t really an oligopoly though. Even if you restrict to “manufactured in the US” there are more options now than there were 30 years ago _because_ the three big manufactures were making trash, and competition did the job it was supposed to.
    - JohnFen 4y ago
      > there are more options now than there were 30 years ago I suppose how true this is depends on what sorts of options you're looking for. The number of acceptable cars on the market now, according to my criteria, is lower than it has ever been.