I am way, way, way far from an expert on AI. Not even particularly interested in it. But is it really fair to say these models just give you the next likeliest

I am way, way, way far from an expert on AI. Not even particularly interested in it. But is it really fair to say these models just give you the next likeliest word based on training? If that were true shouldn't you be able to replicate what they can do with a really advanced Markov chain?