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> investigators already suspect the crash took place when the driver of the Tesla was employing an automated driving system Contradicts the headline, which imp

> investigators already suspect the crash took place when the driver of the Tesla was employing an automated driving system Contradicts the headline, which implies that NHTSA told AP that they had specific reason to believe Autopilot was engaged. Tesla Autopilot is 10x safer than driving without it [0]. We keep seeing speculative clickbait headlines because "Tesla" gets clicks. We also keep seeing confirmation a few months later that, oh yeah... turns out the driver was drunk and pressing the accelerator, and Autopilot wasn't engaged. Telemetry clears these up easily. Also the "recall" (OTA software update) they mention at the end was for FSD, not Autopilot, and it was unrelated: they asked Tesla to eliminate human-like rolling stop behavior and to stop at yellow lights. [0] https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

joshuamorton 4y ago
> Tesla Autopilot is 10x safer than driving without it [0]. No, Autopilot only works in relatively safe conditions where accident rates are already lowest (highway driving). A fair comparison would be accidents per mile for Autopilot vs. Accidents per mile with human drivers in similar conditions, where Autopilot is almost certainly not significantly better, and that's why Tesla doesn't share that data. > Contradicts the headline, which implies that NHTSA told AP that they had specific reason to believe Autopilot was engaged No it doesn't unless both the original headline and HN updated in the past 3 minutes.
- steveBK123 4y ago
  Exactly - theres huge selection bias at play, plus Tesla selecting what numbers to release to prove how much safer they are. If you are using AP as intended, then you are using it on the easiest places to drive - limited access highways in good weather. All of the accidents my family & I have been in over the course of our lives have been in places you are not supposed to be using AP. Crossing traffic, left hand turns, mall parking lots, etc are where the majority of accidents happen. There is also arguably selection bias in the driver profiles. Young males (16~20ish) and older people (75+) have significantly higher accident rates but are less likely to be driving a Tesla, on AP.
- clnq 4y ago
  I don’t think many people who tried full self driving believe the “better than a human driver” thing. The ridiculous idea seems to be mostly in fan circles, not among Tesla owners. Tesla themselves say that the tech is meant to assist the driver, and not be FSD in the true sense of the words. And even with assistance, it only makes driving somewhat safer, and somewhat more dangerous in other areas. I wouldn't want to use FSD in the city with my kids in the car, let's say it this way. It's an amazing technology to my SWE brain. And from a business perspective, it disrupted the automotive industry. We should appreciate it for what it is, not try to make it what it is not. And full self driving it is not. Reasonable self driving, maybe it is. It would be more accurate to call it full driving assist.
elromulous 4y ago
I'm sorry, but this reads like it was written by Tesla PR. As the other child points out, this is conveniently making rather specious/unproven assertions.
threeseed 4y ago
There is also this analysis [1] which normalises crash data. Although Level 2 vehicles were claimed to have a 43% lower crash rate than Level 1 vehicles, their improvement was only 10% after controlling for different rates of freeway driving. Direct comparison with general public driving was impossible due to unclear crash severity thresholds in the manufacturer’s reports, but analysis showed that controlling for driver age would increase reported crash rates by 11%. [1] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.2178566?journalCode=utss20 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.21...

joshuamorton 4y ago

> Tesla Autopilot is 10x safer than driving without it [0]. No, Autopilot only works in relatively safe conditions where accident rates are already lowest (highway driving). A fair comparison would be accidents per mile for Autopilot vs. Accidents per mile with human drivers in similar conditions, where Autopilot is almost certainly not significantly better, and that's why Tesla doesn't share that data. > Contradicts the headline, which implies that NHTSA told AP that they had specific reason to believe Autopilot was engaged No it doesn't unless both the original headline and HN updated in the past 3 minutes.

steveBK123 4y ago
Exactly - theres huge selection bias at play, plus Tesla selecting what numbers to release to prove how much safer they are. If you are using AP as intended, then you are using it on the easiest places to drive - limited access highways in good weather. All of the accidents my family & I have been in over the course of our lives have been in places you are not supposed to be using AP. Crossing traffic, left hand turns, mall parking lots, etc are where the majority of accidents happen. There is also arguably selection bias in the driver profiles. Young males (16~20ish) and older people (75+) have significantly higher accident rates but are less likely to be driving a Tesla, on AP.
clnq 4y ago
I don’t think many people who tried full self driving believe the “better than a human driver” thing. The ridiculous idea seems to be mostly in fan circles, not among Tesla owners. Tesla themselves say that the tech is meant to assist the driver, and not be FSD in the true sense of the words. And even with assistance, it only makes driving somewhat safer, and somewhat more dangerous in other areas. I wouldn't want to use FSD in the city with my kids in the car, let's say it this way. It's an amazing technology to my SWE brain. And from a business perspective, it disrupted the automotive industry. We should appreciate it for what it is, not try to make it what it is not. And full self driving it is not. Reasonable self driving, maybe it is. It would be more accurate to call it full driving assist.

elromulous 4y ago

I'm sorry, but this reads like it was written by Tesla PR. As the other child points out, this is conveniently making rather specious/unproven assertions.

threeseed 4y ago

There is also this analysis [1] which normalises crash data. Although Level 2 vehicles were claimed to have a 43% lower crash rate than Level 1 vehicles, their improvement was only 10% after controlling for different rates of freeway driving. Direct comparison with general public driving was impossible due to unclear crash severity thresholds in the manufacturer’s reports, but analysis showed that controlling for driver age would increase reported crash rates by 11%. [1] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.2178566?journalCode=utss20 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19439962.2023.21...