4 ms·
The first step would be to recognize the error bounds on epistemological error and redo one’s estimates, but the tl;dr is that one’s certainty on edge case pred
by AbrahamParangi 4y ago
The first step would be to recognize the error bounds on epistemological error and redo one’s estimates, but the tl;dr is that one’s certainty on edge case predictions should drop by a lot.
- mitthrowaway2 4y agoHaving low certainty on edge case predictions is fine, but it also should result in correspondingly larger updates when those edge-case predictions come true, which one had previously doubted. For me, that was the case with AlphaGo, AlphaFold, and now ChatGPT. In all three cases I was highly skeptical that, in my lifetime, AI would ever beat humans at Go, adapt the same architecture to problems like protein folding, and blow the Turing Test right out of the water. I've had to update accordingly, and now I'm less skeptical that the barriers ahead will be harder to break than the ones behind us.