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He doesn't seem to have the resources (or troops) just for Ukraine, so it would be surprising if he opened a new front in Georgia. Abandoning the Ukraine invasi

by smt88 4y ago

He doesn't seem to have the resources (or troops) just for Ukraine, so it would be surprising if he opened a new front in Georgia. Abandoning the Ukraine invasion seems very unlikely given the optics. I think more likely scenarios are: - allying with nearby dictators to boost his military and sphere of influence (already happening with China) - starting to use tactical nukes - "soft annexing" nearby territories by pushing pro-Putin candidates (similar to what the US did in Central/South America in the 20th century) He really needs to find a cheap source of military hardware, because his biggest political liability at home is sending more Russians to die. China may end up helping with both.

bradwood 4y ago
I don't see China playing ball as much as you are suggesting (but who truly knows). I think the Chinese authorities would be very hesitant to back Russia in anything but perhaps the most clandestine ways (if at all).
- BoiledCabbage 4y ago
  I could see China using a cut out like Belarus to trade arms with - knowing they will "accidentally" end up in Russian hands. Coincidentally enough the Belarusian leader was just in China last week meeting with the govt.
  - bradwood 4y ago
    If this happens, I find it hard to see how it'll be via Belarus given how obvious it is to the whole world that they are just Russia's stooges.
Bender 4y ago
AFAIK he has not actually used many trained or experienced troops on the front line yet. It's been mostly conscripts and Wagner mercs and most of those mercs are convicted felons they want dealt with, kindof a win-win usage. Hence all the weird mistakes. I think those mistakes were just to soften the battle field based on their military history. The bigger wave of conscripts and actual troops are likely to show up in May/June after the snow melts and they are supposedly even planning to re-implement Stalin's old tactic of having mercs shoot their own troops if they retreat. Should they succeed in Ukraine I would expect them to show up in Poland and Finland next. Maybe also Moldova but I don't know what they are doing there and I have zero idea what China will do beyond providing weapons and ammo.

by smt88 4y ago

bradwood 4y ago

I don't see China playing ball as much as you are suggesting (but who truly knows). I think the Chinese authorities would be very hesitant to back Russia in anything but perhaps the most clandestine ways (if at all).

BoiledCabbage 4y ago
I could see China using a cut out like Belarus to trade arms with - knowing they will "accidentally" end up in Russian hands. Coincidentally enough the Belarusian leader was just in China last week meeting with the govt.
- bradwood 4y ago
  If this happens, I find it hard to see how it'll be via Belarus given how obvious it is to the whole world that they are just Russia's stooges.

Bender 4y ago

AFAIK he has not actually used many trained or experienced troops on the front line yet. It's been mostly conscripts and Wagner mercs and most of those mercs are convicted felons they want dealt with, kindof a win-win usage. Hence all the weird mistakes. I think those mistakes were just to soften the battle field based on their military history. The bigger wave of conscripts and actual troops are likely to show up in May/June after the snow melts and they are supposedly even planning to re-implement Stalin's old tactic of having mercs shoot their own troops if they retreat. Should they succeed in Ukraine I would expect them to show up in Poland and Finland next. Maybe also Moldova but I don't know what they are doing there and I have zero idea what China will do beyond providing weapons and ammo.