4 ms·
The big tech products might have this, but there will be competitors that don't.
by HDThoreaun 4y ago
The big tech products might have this, but there will be competitors that don't.
- twelve40 4y agothere will be non-rent-seeking competitors that will raise $11B and will have nothing to do with big tech. Got it.
- HDThoreaun 4y agoYou won't need $11B to create an LLM in a couple years. Stable diffusion has created the blueprint for open source large models. Sure it might be worse in some sense than the cutting edge ad bloated products, but some people will take that tradeoff.
- ilkke 4y agoMaybe nation-states? You'd just get a different kind of ads then I guess.
- MagicMoonlight 4y agoOnce a model is trained thats 99% of the work. Open source models or a hacker leaking a major model will be enough to compete.
- Gigachad 4y agoIt's been 20+ years and people still pay for Photoshop instead of using GIMP. I think it's safe to say that the commercial models will continue to be a few steps ahead of the free stuff so people will continue using them.
- valine 4y agoBlender is the counter example. Usage of Blender far exceeds the close source alternative.
- barrysteve 4y agoThhe favourable closed source alternatives fell behind in features. Rip modo.
- AlexandrB 4y agoChatGPT style AI is an example of an innovation that seems to be very capital intensive. People are generally not going to be spinning up viable competitors in their garage. The reliance on tons of capital up-front will drive the need to monetize the resulting product in as many ways as possible to recoup the investment.
- HDThoreaun 4y agoI don't agree. Within a couple years wealthy technocrats will absolutely be spinning up low cost minimal ad LLMs in their garage. Running these things certainly isn't cheap, but most of the cost is in training which can be crowdfunded and the model released for free. At which point anyone with 100k can buy a computer that can run the model commercially. We're also seeing smaller models with equivalent performance such as the recent one from facebook. If that trend continues it will be even easier for small groups to train and run models with minimal advertising.
- jodrellblank 4y agoWithin a couple years wealthy technocrats will absolutely be spinning up low cost minimal ad LLMs in your browser. Running these things certainly isn't cheap on your battery, but that's a cost they're willing to pay.
- int_19h 4y agoThe LLaMA 13B and 30B models that Facebook leaked a few days ago have already been successfully spun up on home-grade GPUs using 8-bit and 4-bit quantization, and they work surprisingly well: https://rentry.org/llama-tard-v2 https://rentry.org/llama-tard-v2 30B is not quite as good as ChatGPT yet, but that's mainly a function of fine-tuning quality prompts, and the model is comparable in principle. There are already scripts for fine-tuning, so I expect plenty of pre-tuned chat models to show up very soon now.