If everyone has perfect information and my speculative advantage has only to do with some insight that I had, then yeah it all works out. But once I've bought

If everyone has perfect information and my speculative advantage has only to do with some insight that I had, then yeah it all works out. But once I've bought those futures, I have an incentive to spread misinformation about just how bad the shortage is going to be, and to make it difficult for others to have the same kind of insight in the future so that I can have the same advantage next year. If I'm successful, I'll have created a situation where actors that can store energy hoard it, only parting with it at prices that leave people struggling to survive the winter. We end up losing that energy to inefficiencies in the storage media, and we end up losing people to warmer climes--people who would have otherwise contributed to energy projects that increase supply. Markets work out in the abstract, but unless they're watched closely they sabotage the conditions that made them initially useful.