4 ms·

My data comes from a detailed analysis from the LAO, but back in 2018. https://everythingsouthcity.com/2018/02/california-legislative-analysts-office-reports-s

My data comes from a detailed analysis from the LAO, but back in 2018. https://everythingsouthcity.com/2018/02/california-legislative-analysts-office-reports-state-losing-residents-via-domestic-migration/ https://everythingsouthcity.com/2018/02/california-legislati... It follows trends over the past decades in California where for emigration internal to the US, California loses more residents to other states than it gains, and overall population growth comes from international immigration. If there were actually a change in this trend, I wouldn't doubt it, but I wouldn't believe the change unless I saw it from an actual analysis, not from the narratives that the media pushes in terms of fuzzy, sloppy news articles about feelings that get published in the main steam media. The churn of news articles it based on the vibes of journalists, typically their friends and social circles. For example, note the shift from terms headlines; people are leaving "high tax states" for "lower cost", but it's little known that "high tax" California is actually lower tax than Texas, except for those who are very wealthy.

pclmulqdq 4y ago
Trends on mobility of people have changed a lot post-pandemic. I wouldn't put much faith in any data from before 2021. By the way, in 2018, the NIMBYs were still getting their way, so that isn't exactly relevant to the current discussion. At the time, CA was importing a middle class from abroad and losing poor residents. Currently, the importation of that middle class has slowed down a lot, and the existing middle class appears to be moving away. Supposedly, the lower-income bracket also isn't moving around as much because it's harder. You aren't going to get a decade-long analytical post-mortem of this trend until... about 2031. The news stories are what we have, and their underlying data (which you can probably find in FRED if you search enough). Also, I don't know what you consider "very wealthy," but if the line is "people for whom total tax burden in CA is higher than total tax burden in TX," your definition of "very wealthy" is at a much lower income than most people will think - the break-even point is less than $100k of income for many people.

pclmulqdq 4y ago

Trends on mobility of people have changed a lot post-pandemic. I wouldn't put much faith in any data from before 2021. By the way, in 2018, the NIMBYs were still getting their way, so that isn't exactly relevant to the current discussion. At the time, CA was importing a middle class from abroad and losing poor residents. Currently, the importation of that middle class has slowed down a lot, and the existing middle class appears to be moving away. Supposedly, the lower-income bracket also isn't moving around as much because it's harder. You aren't going to get a decade-long analytical post-mortem of this trend until... about 2031. The news stories are what we have, and their underlying data (which you can probably find in FRED if you search enough). Also, I don't know what you consider "very wealthy," but if the line is "people for whom total tax burden in CA is higher than total tax burden in TX," your definition of "very wealthy" is at a much lower income than most people will think - the break-even point is less than $100k of income for many people.