3 ms·

What? No. Everything about this short comment is wrong. Wealthy people are staying in California, it's lower income people that can't pay rent and are leaving.

What? No. Everything about this short comment is wrong. Wealthy people are staying in California, it's lower income people that can't pay rent and are leaving. The state's finances have had many years of huge surpluses, when these 3-5 stories were being built. This year's deficit is a tiny fraction of the magnitude of 2022's surplus. Second, the state doesn't see any money from new developments. Property taxes fund county and city budgets, not the state. Finally, despite property tax going to local governments that approve or deny housing, increased tax revenue is almost never part of the decision, and to the degree that tax revenue has come up for residential approvals, it's usually a negative because residential housing is viewed as likely consuming more city budget in services than it generates. Instead, government officials fast track hotels, retail, and other types of land use that generate lots of tax revenue.

s1artibartfast 4y ago
Doesn't the state get its pound of flesh from new home sales and resale? I know this can be offset by purchase of a similar home but has anyone calculated how much it is in terms of the state budget
pclmulqdq 4y ago
Do you have a source showing that lower income people are the ones who are leaving or are you guessing? Bloomberg has pretty convincingly argued that it is actually the middle class (the upper-middle class particularly), those who can afford rent and pay the highest tax load to states, who are leaving places like CA and NY. New York has all but admitted that is the case, too: * https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-16/new-york-vs-florida-how-to-decide-where-to-move-now https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-16/new-yo... * https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/states-with-low-taxes-americans-leave-new-york-moving-to-florida-texas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/states-wi... * https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-mayor-eric-adams-ceos-bring-workers-back-office-2022-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-mayor-eric-adams-ce... * https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-adams-softens-stance-on-working-from-home-for-city-employees/4106612/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-a...
- epistasis 4y ago
  My data comes from a detailed analysis from the LAO, but back in 2018. https://everythingsouthcity.com/2018/02/california-legislative-analysts-office-reports-state-losing-residents-via-domestic-migration/ https://everythingsouthcity.com/2018/02/california-legislati... It follows trends over the past decades in California where for emigration internal to the US, California loses more residents to other states than it gains, and overall population growth comes from international immigration. If there were actually a change in this trend, I wouldn't doubt it, but I wouldn't believe the change unless I saw it from an actual analysis, not from the narratives that the media pushes in terms of fuzzy, sloppy news articles about feelings that get published in the main steam media. The churn of news articles it based on the vibes of journalists, typically their friends and social circles. For example, note the shift from terms headlines; people are leaving "high tax states" for "lower cost", but it's little known that "high tax" California is actually lower tax than Texas, except for those who are very wealthy.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    Trends on mobility of people have changed a lot post-pandemic. I wouldn't put much faith in any data from before 2021. By the way, in 2018, the NIMBYs were still getting their way, so that isn't exactly relevant to the current discussion. At the time, CA was importing a middle class from abroad and losing poor residents. Currently, the importation of that middle class has slowed down a lot, and the existing middle class appears to be moving away. Supposedly, the lower-income bracket also isn't moving around as much because it's harder. You aren't going to get a decade-long analytical post-mortem of this trend until... about 2031. The news stories are what we have, and their underlying data (which you can probably find in FRED if you search enough). Also, I don't know what you consider "very wealthy," but if the line is "people for whom total tax burden in CA is higher than total tax burden in TX," your definition of "very wealthy" is at a much lower income than most people will think - the break-even point is less than $100k of income for many people.

s1artibartfast 4y ago

Doesn't the state get its pound of flesh from new home sales and resale? I know this can be offset by purchase of a similar home but has anyone calculated how much it is in terms of the state budget

pclmulqdq 4y ago

Do you have a source showing that lower income people are the ones who are leaving or are you guessing? Bloomberg has pretty convincingly argued that it is actually the middle class (the upper-middle class particularly), those who can afford rent and pay the highest tax load to states, who are leaving places like CA and NY. New York has all but admitted that is the case, too: * https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-16/new-york-vs-florida-how-to-decide-where-to-move-now https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-16/new-yo... * https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/states-with-low-taxes-americans-leave-new-york-moving-to-florida-texas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/states-wi... * https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-mayor-eric-adams-ceos-bring-workers-back-office-2022-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-mayor-eric-adams-ce... * https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-adams-softens-stance-on-working-from-home-for-city-employees/4106612/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-a...

epistasis 4y ago
My data comes from a detailed analysis from the LAO, but back in 2018. https://everythingsouthcity.com/2018/02/california-legislative-analysts-office-reports-state-losing-residents-via-domestic-migration/ https://everythingsouthcity.com/2018/02/california-legislati... It follows trends over the past decades in California where for emigration internal to the US, California loses more residents to other states than it gains, and overall population growth comes from international immigration. If there were actually a change in this trend, I wouldn't doubt it, but I wouldn't believe the change unless I saw it from an actual analysis, not from the narratives that the media pushes in terms of fuzzy, sloppy news articles about feelings that get published in the main steam media. The churn of news articles it based on the vibes of journalists, typically their friends and social circles. For example, note the shift from terms headlines; people are leaving "high tax states" for "lower cost", but it's little known that "high tax" California is actually lower tax than Texas, except for those who are very wealthy.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  Trends on mobility of people have changed a lot post-pandemic. I wouldn't put much faith in any data from before 2021. By the way, in 2018, the NIMBYs were still getting their way, so that isn't exactly relevant to the current discussion. At the time, CA was importing a middle class from abroad and losing poor residents. Currently, the importation of that middle class has slowed down a lot, and the existing middle class appears to be moving away. Supposedly, the lower-income bracket also isn't moving around as much because it's harder. You aren't going to get a decade-long analytical post-mortem of this trend until... about 2031. The news stories are what we have, and their underlying data (which you can probably find in FRED if you search enough). Also, I don't know what you consider "very wealthy," but if the line is "people for whom total tax burden in CA is higher than total tax burden in TX," your definition of "very wealthy" is at a much lower income than most people will think - the break-even point is less than $100k of income for many people.