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You are stuck in the mindset of a blank slate with Energiewende as one of the options ahead of you. That decision is done, you can not revert it. The cost is pa

You are stuck in the mindset of a blank slate with Energiewende as one of the options ahead of you. That decision is done, you can not revert it. The cost is paid. We are now in 2023. This is how the cost for solar PV and wind have transformed, since that decision. https://www.lazard.com/media/451886/grphx_lcoe-09.png https://www.lazard.com/media/451886/grphx_lcoe-09.png We are at the end of that graph. The outlook is not 2009, it is 2023. In 2023 renewables are the only choice, economically. When we hit 70-90% penetration depending on country there will be new problems to solve, but we are extremely far from that. The current large build-out is off-shore wind, since that has higher capacity factors. We will see to what percentage of penetration that brings us. Then some sprinkling of solar on top because it is essentially free. Nuclear and renewables both compete for the slice of the energy market being the most inflexible cheapest power source. Renewables win that by a landslide. Now nuclear becomes load following, and that horrific investment became even worse.

kgabis 4y ago
LCOE doesn't account for storage, backup and grid costs, please don't use it as a go to indicator that renewables are cheap. How much offshore capacity was added in the last 3 years in Germany? Zero? Or am I mistaken?
- Gwypaas 4y ago
  Energy grids tend to converge to LCOE of the producers. Just look at the average prices before the current crisis haphazardly replacing Russian gas with alternatives. We are also talking about the 70-90% case here, for that case no storage is needed. That is the point. A stupid solution, which is cheaper than nuclear, is simply burning hydrogen in turbines like todays peaker plants. We are not at the point where it is needed, so everyone is instead looking for smarter solution. The European grid is interconnected. UK awarded contracts to add 7 GW @ 60% capacity factor = 4.2 GW average last summer. Germany seems to have added ~500 MW in off-shore wind in the last three years, so with that generations capacity factor about 230 MW in average power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_offshore_wind_farms_in_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_offshore_wind_farms_in...
  - kgabis 4y ago
    It just doesn't make sense to only use LCOE for weather and season dependent sources of energy, of course you need storage if you don't want to burn gas/coal during Dunkelflaute. Just look at German grid and what's happening right now (614 gCO₂eq/kWh, mostly gas and coal). Meanwhile France is at 92g. Are you really proposing countries like Poland decarbonise like Germany instead of following France's example? Interconnected or not, you do need cheap and dependable energy and the only clean source of that is nuclear. Hydrogen is just a greenwashed natural gas. And 500MW in 3 years is quite far from being meaningful.

kgabis 4y ago

LCOE doesn't account for storage, backup and grid costs, please don't use it as a go to indicator that renewables are cheap. How much offshore capacity was added in the last 3 years in Germany? Zero? Or am I mistaken?

Gwypaas 4y ago
Energy grids tend to converge to LCOE of the producers. Just look at the average prices before the current crisis haphazardly replacing Russian gas with alternatives. We are also talking about the 70-90% case here, for that case no storage is needed. That is the point. A stupid solution, which is cheaper than nuclear, is simply burning hydrogen in turbines like todays peaker plants. We are not at the point where it is needed, so everyone is instead looking for smarter solution. The European grid is interconnected. UK awarded contracts to add 7 GW @ 60% capacity factor = 4.2 GW average last summer. Germany seems to have added ~500 MW in off-shore wind in the last three years, so with that generations capacity factor about 230 MW in average power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_offshore_wind_farms_in_Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_offshore_wind_farms_in...
- kgabis 4y ago
  It just doesn't make sense to only use LCOE for weather and season dependent sources of energy, of course you need storage if you don't want to burn gas/coal during Dunkelflaute. Just look at German grid and what's happening right now (614 gCO₂eq/kWh, mostly gas and coal). Meanwhile France is at 92g. Are you really proposing countries like Poland decarbonise like Germany instead of following France's example? Interconnected or not, you do need cheap and dependable energy and the only clean source of that is nuclear. Hydrogen is just a greenwashed natural gas. And 500MW in 3 years is quite far from being meaningful.