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Tangentially related but one of my favorite stories is that the earliest derivatives contract we have recorded was based on astrology: > A story, with differen

Tangentially related but one of my favorite stories is that the earliest derivatives contract we have recorded was based on astrology: > A story, with different versions, recounts how Thales achieved riches from an olive harvest by prediction of the weather. In one version, he bought all the olive presses in Miletus after predicting the weather and a good harvest for a particular year. Another version of the story has Aristotle explain that Thales had reserved presses in advance, at a discount, and could rent them out at a high price when demand peaked, following his prediction of a particularly good harvest. This first version of the story would constitute the first historically known creation and use of futures, whereas the second version would be the first historically known creation and use of options. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_of_Miletus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_of_Miletus Aristotle clarifies that Thales supposedly predicted the weather by using astrology: > Thales, so the story goes, because of his poverty was taunted with the uselessness of philosophy; but from his knowledge of astronomy he had observed while it was still winter that there was going to be a large crop of olives.... https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.01.0058:book=1:section=1259a&highlight=thales https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1...

dylan604 4y ago
we seem to be using astrology and astronomy interchangeably here, and that makes me not happy.
- DoreenMichele 4y ago
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_astronomy#:~:text=Astrology%20and%20astronomy%20were%20archaically%20treated%20together%2C%20but,of%20celestial%20objects%20as%20the%20basis%20for%20divination https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_astronomy#:~:t....
- jacobmartin 4y ago
  I would agree, but as DoreenMichele pointed out, they were treated the same in ancient Greece. And it's not like the Greeks had extremely sophisticated climate models able to predict the harvest seasons in advance. As far as I know, even today these sorts of models are hit-and-miss. I think we should call it astrology in English in this circumstance. (Edit) even so if you look at an untranslated version of the Politics (https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0057%3Abook%3D1%3Asection%3D1259a https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext...), you can see that he is using the word ἀστρολογίας (astrologias).
  - dylan604 4y ago
    That's all well and good for the nerds that really want to know what words were used by some ancients. But when translating from the ancient language to the modern language, it is best to use the more appropriate modern words. Lots of languages loose a lot in translation, and need a bit of help to make better sense when translated into the new language. In 2023, it will always make me a little sad when someone confuses astrology and astronomy.

dylan604 4y ago

we seem to be using astrology and astronomy interchangeably here, and that makes me not happy.

DoreenMichele 4y ago
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_astronomy#:~:text=Astrology%20and%20astronomy%20were%20archaically%20treated%20together%2C%20but,of%20celestial%20objects%20as%20the%20basis%20for%20divination https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_astronomy#:~:t....
jacobmartin 4y ago
I would agree, but as DoreenMichele pointed out, they were treated the same in ancient Greece. And it's not like the Greeks had extremely sophisticated climate models able to predict the harvest seasons in advance. As far as I know, even today these sorts of models are hit-and-miss. I think we should call it astrology in English in this circumstance. (Edit) even so if you look at an untranslated version of the Politics (https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0057%3Abook%3D1%3Asection%3D1259a https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext...), you can see that he is using the word ἀστρολογίας (astrologias).
- dylan604 4y ago
  That's all well and good for the nerds that really want to know what words were used by some ancients. But when translating from the ancient language to the modern language, it is best to use the more appropriate modern words. Lots of languages loose a lot in translation, and need a bit of help to make better sense when translated into the new language. In 2023, it will always make me a little sad when someone confuses astrology and astronomy.