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I still think there is a high probability the whole bubble will burst explosively by the end up the summer. We've seen an unprecedented self-reinforcing wave of

I still think there is a high probability the whole bubble will burst explosively by the end up the summer. We've seen an unprecedented self-reinforcing wave of hype and commensurately inflated expectations. When it falls apart, it's going to fall hard. I'm not saying there's nothing to the tech, just that expectation have become so inflated that whatever new developments actually happen will never he able to keep up. I'm still betting on AI winter (with a long fall driven by inertia in governments and big institutions that didn't get the memo). This is going to be a highly exaggerated version of what we've seen with blockchain (edit: with the qualifier that while blockchain will go to zero unless someone finds a use for it, ML will settle to its nonzero real utility)

operatingthetan 4y ago
Under 6 months seems way too small for a tech hype cycle. This AI stuff has more staying power than Crypto and that has had a 10 years or so of cycles so far. Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta will circle the wagons around AI for years, consulting firms will start offering integrations to small players, there will be many startups. We are too early on this to be predicting AI demise.
Felminor 4y ago
I'm following ml papers, ml work etc for a while. The progress is crazy. The use cases popping up are already here. Not betting on ai/ml right now is something someone can't afford. And I'm not easily be swayed. But alone the fact how good Charcpt understood what I wanted it to do and seamless switching languages is crazy good. And ml is everywhere: voice synthesis, OCR, image analysis, image synthesis, text understanding, driving, ... This is the new way.
- RC_ITR 4y ago
  > And ml is everywhere: voice synthesis, OCR, image analysis, image synthesis, text understanding, driving, Just to be clear, in order those are: RNNs/CNNs, CNNs, CNNs, not something neural nets do, and multiple AI systems with widely different architecture. The progress in GPT has very few aspects that pass over to those.

operatingthetan 4y ago

Under 6 months seems way too small for a tech hype cycle. This AI stuff has more staying power than Crypto and that has had a 10 years or so of cycles so far. Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta will circle the wagons around AI for years, consulting firms will start offering integrations to small players, there will be many startups. We are too early on this to be predicting AI demise.

Felminor 4y ago

I'm following ml papers, ml work etc for a while. The progress is crazy. The use cases popping up are already here. Not betting on ai/ml right now is something someone can't afford. And I'm not easily be swayed. But alone the fact how good Charcpt understood what I wanted it to do and seamless switching languages is crazy good. And ml is everywhere: voice synthesis, OCR, image analysis, image synthesis, text understanding, driving, ... This is the new way.

RC_ITR 4y ago
> And ml is everywhere: voice synthesis, OCR, image analysis, image synthesis, text understanding, driving, Just to be clear, in order those are: RNNs/CNNs, CNNs, CNNs, not something neural nets do, and multiple AI systems with widely different architecture. The progress in GPT has very few aspects that pass over to those.