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Generally speaking, people will always choose to spend money living as close to their ideal as they can, with the resources they are able to give toward it. Th
by johnweldon 4y ago
Generally speaking, people will always choose to spend money living as close to their ideal as they can, with the resources they are able to give toward it.
The fact that so many people choose to live in suburbs, or the "sticks", suggests that there is something desirable to _them_ about living there. I.e. the same spending power required to live in a house in the suburbs, or rurally, could usually be used to live in higher density living, closer to urban centers, but instead they choose to suffer long commutes and expensive transportation in order to enjoy a different lifestyle.
I think it's naive to suggest that "American housing" is a Ponzi scheme.
- roywiggins 4y agoPonzi's are very attractive too, for a while. People get a lot out of Ponzis. "the revenue collected over time does not come near to covering the costs of meeting these long-term obligations. Development spread out over a broad area is very expensive to maintain. Over a life cycle, a city frequently receives just a dime or two of revenue for each dollar of liability... Decades into this experiment, American cities have a ticking time bomb of unfunded liability for infrastructure maintenance. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) estimates deferred maintenance at multiple trillions of dollars, but that's just for major infrastructure, not the local streets, curbs, walks, and pipes that directly serve our homes. Every mature city has a backlog of deferred maintenance, a growing list of promises with no discernible path to make good on them." https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/5/14/americas-growth-ponzi-scheme-md2020?format=amp https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/5/14/americas-growt...
- johnweldon 4y agoI'm a fan of strongtowns too. To the degree that that analysis is true, it will sort itself out. We don't need to do anything to save our neighbor from themself. We can make a lifetime of difference solving our own problems.
- bluGill 4y agoYou need to quit reading strongtowns and start thinking. Every city has deferred maintenance and unmeetable promises, most of it is maintenance that it is more cost effective to defer. We don't need perfectly smooth streets, so defer minor maintenance makes sense. Most unmeetable promisees are things they never intended to meet. Suburbs have existed for over 100 years. If there was a problem we would see it all over, not just in a few random ones.
- stouset 4y ago> Suburbs have existed for over 100 years. If there was a problem we would see it all over, not just in a few random ones. "We've been throwing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for hundreds of years. If this was a problem we'd be seeing the consequences of it by now." Anyone who's looking does see the problem. Meanwhile there's a critical mass of people whose lives and identity revolve around the status quo and who simply prefer not to see it. The people who see the problem have been trying to tell you (and everyone else) about it, and it continues to fall on deaf ears.
- bluGill 4y agoThere is a problem i agree, but strongtowns does not see the real problems and so is not helpful in solving them.
- oangemangut 4y agoSure, when we subsidize all expensive bits of suburban living it artificially decreases the cost to the home owner of all the negative externalities.
- johnweldon 4y agoI appreciate this argument - and there is some truth to it, but certainly not to the point of (paraphrasing here) "anyone who doesn't want to live in the city is participating in a Ponzi scheme"
- pchristensen 4y agoNo one is questioning that people want to live in suburbs. People object to the government power preventing any additional development in these low density areas. These areas are desirable, but economically uncompetitive.
- johnweldon 4y agoI agree with your take.
- kiba 4y agoDesirable to who? It's not like folks have much of a choice in the density of housing and transportation.
- rr888 4y ago> economically uncompetitive How can you say that? Usually nice suburbs pay huge amount in taxes that subsidize urban cores.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 4y agoCitation needed. Everything I have seen shows that suburbs are a net drain in contrast to dense urban areas. Infrastructure has very high fixed costs that require more people to net even.
- hdhddhshhshd 4y ago[dead]
- bluGill 4y agoCitation needed on what you have read as well. I too have read the same, but it conflicts with the reality that suburbs have existed for more than 100 years now, and those old ones have added and replaced infrastructure many times over their history. That nothing i've read acknowledges that fact suggests they are cherry picking evidence instead of giving an unbiased analysis .
- karmelapple 4y agoI disagree that it’s naive. Here is a video talking about why that term is being used: https://youtu.be/7IsMeKl-Sv0 https://youtu.be/7IsMeKl-Sv0 And the Strong Towns write up that has links to more reading that I believe informed that video: https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/8/28/the-growth-ponzi-scheme-a-crash-course https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/8/28/the-growth-pon...
- johnweldon 4y agoI called it naive because I believe it is an oversimplification. Strong Towns has an agenda (which I mostly agree with), and in order to promote their agenda they have a straw man argument that broadly categorizes _all_ suburban development as an unsustainable venture that is borrowing against the future. I agree that there is (in many cases, but not all) some deferred costs and externalities that are not being fully accounted for in new development. However, I'm not nearly so pessimistic as to think that the people living in those developments won't make changes to account for those deferred costs and even possibly some of the externalities. I think it's naive to cry "the sky is falling".
- babypuncher 4y agoThey are able to make that choice because we pretty heavily subsidize it for them. Rural communities receive a disproportionately large amount of federal aid per capita in order to build and maintain the infrastructure that makes that lifestyle possible. If the individual cost of buying a house "in the sticks" was reflective of that, people might start to think twice.
- johnweldon 4y ago> pretty heavily subsidize Is a pretty general term that's hard to respond to. Yes there are rural subsidies, but I'm unconvinced that the per-capita subsidization of rural and suburban dwellers is so much greater than their urban counterparts. You may have a very good argument, but I don't know the numbers, and I haven't seen anyone provide the numbers for this yet either.
- bluGill 4y agoRural areas have such a tiny population that the subsidy going to them is mostly used by urban folks. If your food goes over a subsidized road that counts against you.
- johnweldon 4y ago> If the individual cost of buying a house "in the sticks" was reflective of that, people might start to think twice. I don't buy that subsidization is what makes buying a house "in the sticks" so much cheaper.
- bluGill 4y agoIt is partially supply and demand, and partially the sticks have much less services. Gravel roads are cheap. Libraries cost money, so rural areas do without
- twblalock 4y agoIt's important not to conflate "suburbs" and "rural." For example, most of the Santa Clara Valley is suburban, consisting of subdivisions of detached homes with front yards, driveways, garages etc. But the area is definitely not rural: millions of people live here and 4 of the 5 FAANG companies are headquartered here. You could say similar things about LA, or the areas outside Chicago and NYC, etc. They are definitely suburban, and definitely not rural.
- AnthonyMouse 4y ago> The fact that so many people choose to live in suburbs, or the "sticks", suggests that there is something desirable to _them_ about living there. A major reason for the preference is the lower price per square foot in the suburbs than in higher density areas. They can't afford that much space in the city, which in turn is so expensive because the amount of high density housing is artificially limited by zoning. You have to let the market decide how much high density housing there should be before you can score "the market has decided" as a point.
- TheCoelacanth 4y agoThe market has decided. High-density is better. If it weren't, then it wouldn't be so much more expensive.
- AnthonyMouse 4y agoThat argument doesn't work either. If you pass a law restricting the supply of A and then notice that A costs more than B, it could as easily be because of lower supply as higher demand. If you want to know what happens in a free market you have to let a free market happen.
- johnweldon 4y ago> A major reason for the preference is the lower price per square foot in the suburbs than in higher density areas. I think that's a big part of it, but also people choose suburbs and rural living for reasons more to do with quality of life rather than cost.
- AnthonyMouse 4y agoWhich is fine. The proposal isn't a law against low density housing, it's to remove the laws against high density housing.
- johnweldon 4y agoI think the original comment proposal was (my, slightly sarcastic, paraphrase) "stop incentivizing anything but urban infrastructure and living, everything else is a ponzi scheme" I agree with your proposal. I have no objection to removing laws against high density housing.
- bkettle 4y ago"Happy City" by Charles Montgomery brings an interesting angle on the typical urban planning story by focusing largely on how we can plan cities and communities to maximize happiness. In the book, he discusses that people have this "ideal" of moving to the suburbs, owning their own house, etc, but then the long commutes, isolation of living in a car-dependent neighborhood, dangers of living among high-speed cars, etc. all lead many people to actually be less happy overall after moving to the suburbs. So I think that some of this fact that the suburbs are desirable is not necessarily completely rational, and may instead be heavily influenced by the idea that moving to suburbs is what they grew up seeing as their future (due, of course, to federal programs that incentivized suburbanization) and by auto-industry lobbying and marketing that idealizes a car-dependent lifestyle. Obviously there will be variability and I'm sure many people enjoy a suburban/rural lifestyle more than they would a city lifestyle. But I don't know if a preference for suburban living is really part of our human nature, and I think assuming that it is can be detrimental as it can take effort away from recreating the peace and quiet and nature access in a way that is accessible to all in a more efficient urban setting.
- johnweldon 4y agoWell said - I don't fully agree, but I agree that an automobile centered world is sub-optimal, and fuels our feelings of disconnection. I'm fully on-board with working to make suburbs more self-contained and walkable. As others have said, the issue may be zoning and regulations.
- outside1234 4y agoAgreed - this is a really great book
- pxeboot 4y ago>The fact that so many people choose to live in suburbs, or the "sticks", suggests that there is something desirable to _them_ about living there. Many people I know would rather live in the city, but the upfront cost of a house in the suburbs are much lower.
- johnweldon 4y agoAgreed. Although I think it has to do with more than location. For a childless couple, the cost of a 3 bedroom house in the suburbs might be the same as for a one room apartment in the city. If they choose the suburbs, maybe they're choosing more than location, they're also choosing quality of life.
- closeparen 4y agoThe point of producing dramatically more urban housing would be to stop having to ration our consumption of it so stringently.
- cma 4y agoThat's on an individual basis, but it can have collective side effects. For example, most would rather a personal car rather than the bus, but that makes bus stops less frequent due to less ridership which then makes cars even more desireable. Or flight from urban crime to the suburbs then makes urban crime more likely for the remaining people, who then have more reasons to flee.
- bluGill 4y agoWould they prefer the car, or is it just that the bus with poor routing and infrequent service is not a viable alternative and those in charge waste a ton of money which makes useful expansions not affordable.
- snow_mac 4y agoWhy the hell would I live in an American city? I live in Colorado. Denver is our 'city', there is no parking, no room for my 2 dogs and my kid would not have a giant backyard to play in. Instead, I have a 3400 sq ft house on 10,000 sq ft of land with giant trees everywhere. I'm within 2 miles of lightrail, that I will never use. I work from home, I have a home office with a indoor, led powered garden with fresh fruit and flowers year round. My wife works 30 minutes from home, she's a school teacher. We wanted to live closer to her school but we'd get a much smaller house with no parking and no room for the kids and dogs to play. Again, why would I buy near or in any city? 15 minutes from downtown Denver is to close for my taste. I love theatre, I love restaurants but honestly, I hate driving in Denver. The traffic sucks. I love driving. I love craft coffee, my house is 1 mile from the coffee factory that makes the coffee whole foods uses; I enjoy a craft coffee from that place once in a while. Why is walkable so desired? When it's cold (like today) I don't want to leave my car. I'd drive through any day, I'd drive just to avoid walking half a mile. Denver banned the scooters and other options from lyft and bird, so I have to lug my giant body from location to location? No thanks, I'll take my 4000 pound car to the restaurant instead. Then I'll go home, enjoy my big beautiful yard and not worry about living in the city. I don't go to the gym, instead I have a treadmill and a bike in my basement. If I want to do something, I just get in my car and go. I want to get a solar system and buy an electric car but so far no one will install on my style of roof
- asciimike 4y ago> Denver banned the scooters and other options from lyft and bird, so I have to lug my giant body from location to location? No thanks, I'll take my 4000 pound car to the restaurant instead. Is there a source for this? I live in Denver and am currently staring at a dozen Lyft scooters and a few bikes parked on the corner next to my apartment. Lime also operates scooters and bikes, which I usually see parked across the street at the apartments next door. There are a few places that are geofenced (e.g. along 16th St Mall), but judging by how many people I see riding them on e.g. Cherry Creek trail as I'm biking, I don't think they're generally banned.
- 0x53 4y ago
- tshaddox 4y ago> The fact that so many people choose to live in suburbs, or the "sticks", suggests that there is something desirable to _them_ about living there. The fact that people dump their sewage into the creek instead of paying for proper sewage treatment/disposal suggests that there's something desirable to _them_ to do the easier and cheaper thing. Of course! The problem is externalities.
- johnweldon 4y agoI think your comment is a bit misleading. Dumping sewage into a creek is an externality that is bad. Someone preferring to live in a suburb does not mean they're generating externalities at that level. The very reason I pushed back on the comment was because of this black and white thinking. Saying > The fact that people dump their sewage into the creek instead of paying for proper sewage treatment/disposal suggests that there's something desirable to _them_ to do the easier and cheaper thing. Of course! seems condescending to me. As though "those" people don't have the character or moral rectitude to live in the city. Maybe I'm reading in more than you intended.
- adeimantus2001 4y agoSuburban development, as it stands in America today, has enormous levels of externalities. The roads and sewers of suburban developments are subsidized by downtown areas which are more tax-dense. Suburban development requires cars which are always the least efficient way to get around vs. walking/transit, regardless of electrification. Suburban homes are large and freestanding both of which detract from building energy efficiency. Most suburban homes today are built with only a 50 year expected lifespan making them incredibly wasteful compared to construction in other parts of the world.
- twblalock 4y agoPeople keep talking about the "subsidies" as if they apply to all suburbs. It seems to be an article of faith. It really needs some evidence (preferably from an unbiased source).
- closeparen 4y ago> the same spending power required to live in a house in the suburbs, or rurally, could usually be used to live in higher density living, closer to urban centers Have you seen what condos cost? This is not true. Homeownership in walkable neighborhoods is basically reserved for plutocrats.
- JeremyNT 4y agoThis is the strange/sad truth. Clearly walkable neighbourhoods are highly desirable, and in the US people pay a massive premium to get them because they are so scarce. Yet, for some reason, new construction in the suburbs is all disconnected and almost never walkable. There's a huge disconnect between what people want and what developers are actually building. The kind of density that leads to walkability seems to only occur in older and already expensive areas with infill development, never green field construction further from an existing city center. Maybe it's impossible to build new walkable areas in the US.
- closeparen 4y agoAlmost all actually-existing cities replaced less intense uses on the same land. They simply had the foresight to get this done before we recognized a community’s right to veto such changes. The next ones will not come until we have stopped recognizing it.
- golemiprague 4y ago[dead]