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I think you might have stopped after the first point you made. I will give you a brief precis. UK announces they are leaving, projections that hundreds of thou

I think you might have stopped after the first point you made. I will give you a brief precis. UK announces they are leaving, projections that hundreds of thousands of jobs will go from the City, massive drop in trade and growth, and that the EU will never concede anything in negotiations. Time has now passed. The number of jobs gone is likely negative, projections that have found positive numbers (usually in the thousands) typically use any job created in Europe in financial services as a job "taken" from the City...the number is still tiny. Trade with the EU is above pre-Brexit levels. Exports are growing slowly but that is because the EU is growing slowly. Exports to RoW are up (but the main issue with the UK remains supply growth, even if we were in the EU it wouldn't change the fact that unemployment is extremely low). EU has conceded everything. The 2019 deal was regarded as totally impossible, it happened. The EU turned NI into a political football then people started being shot in NI, and they have conceded that now too. Btw, you are right...you didn't need to know much about trade or economics to know this. I do happen to know a bit about both, but it was obvious before because trade is based on mutual interest. The EU is highly protectionist, but the UK is such a large trading partner that the eventual outcome (a deal that resulted in no costs for either side) was predictable...but no-one was making that prediction beforehand (and, unfortunately, much of the debate in the UK is composed of people who made very confident-sounding predictions without much understanding of economics, and were wrong).

padjo 4y ago
> The EU turned NI into a political football That’s a pretty bizarre interpretation of events given that it was the UK that threatened to unilaterally abandon the Northern Ireland protocol as a negotiating tactic
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
  The NI protocol came significantly after the EU decided to turn the NI border into an issue in the Brexit negotiations (iirc, the EU's position paper was published in 2017). The reason why the UK had to look at unilateral action was: because the EU wouldn't negotiate (the original position paper was made with the premise that the UK would actually go back on Brexit and that the issue could be used to force another vote), because NI hadn't had a govt for years as a result, and because terrorist attacks were increasing. This isn't a negotiating tactic, the EU attempted to break up the UK in order to "win" at Brexit. You may call that a "bizarre interpretation" but the Windsor framework accepted this because all the EU's previous reservations were dropped entirely (i.e. they were negotiating tactics). The mistake that previous UK govts made was to accept the EU turning the UK's territorial integrity into an issue over, essentially, a trade deal.
123pie123 4y ago
>Trade with the EU is above pre-Brexit levels. please give details? please explain the costs and screw up to our military of pulling out of Galileo??
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/december2022 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpay... What has been the military cost of Brexit in Ukraine? The UK had to lead alone at the start, as we would have done in the EU. Foreign policy generally is one of the key advantages because, so far, the EU fails to be serious. The US has funded their defence for decades: anti-US. Blocked sanctions on Iran. Helped Russia break off Ukraine. Now moving closer to China. If the EU wants to do that, fine. But I don't see why any country needs to go along with that because Germany says so.
  - 123pie123 4y ago
    that link only goes back to 2020?? I did NOT say anything about Ukraine - I'm talking about the next generation stuff, not the older stuff Ukraine is getting UK has gone to the 3rd country status and lost (Billions) crap loads of research on weapons - why do you think the gov has done the laughable investment in to OneWeb?? but Money does not seem to factor in to any discussions??
    - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
      Correct, the UK left the Single Market in 2021. Money? France is the only European country that spends anywhere close to the amount required by NATO on defence. European countries rely very heavily on the US. If we were in the EU, Europe is still not going to spend enough. OneWeb merged with Eutelsat. Iirc, the UK invested in OneWeb at a £1bn valuation, and the Eutelsat transaction valued OneWeb at just under £3bn. The UK govt gets a stake in the largest satellite company in Europe, it does so at a lower price by making a shrewd investment in a company in bankruptcy, and all outside of the EU.
jacooper 4y ago
Sources would be helpful, as your comment strongly goes against the common consensus against Brexit.
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
  Ah, the "common consensus" (i.e. you) has spoken.
  - jacooper 4y ago
    Actually no, most other comments and news coverage are against Brexit and are highlighting its negatives on the UK.
- TapWaterBandit 4y ago
  The common consensus, ay? Is this that same "common consensus" that ASSURED us that a lab leak in Wuhan was a ridiculous idea for the origin of Covid-19? Fair views on Brexit are hard to have in general but the idea the "common consensus" (or more specifically, the media consensus) is giving a fair one is nonsense.
  - red-iron-pine 4y ago
    good attempt at whataboutism and derailing the narrative. other trolls -- get a look at this, you need to be copying this approach. Brexit, COVID, China, and a dig at what is implied to be mainstream media. Some masterfully crafted dog-whistles here.
    - TapWaterBandit 4y ago
      > Some masterfully crafted dog-whistles here. Some people's brains are so addled they think they hear dog whistles when really it is an original thought struggling to breakthrough from the sludge they've buried their mind with. No bigger tell these days for someone being an ideologue than dog whistle talk. Even the FBI is saying the lab leak is the most likely cause of Covid now. Must be a dog whistle I suppose (rolls eyes)
mrtksn 4y ago
Any rise which is below the inflation is actually a shrink. You can tell by having a %10 rise in your salary but the meal deal in Sainsbury's going from 3GBP to 4GBP. Guess what happens if EU sells it's 5GBP wines for 7GBP and UK sells it's 3GBP cheddar for 5GBP? Trade increase! EU Agreeing to everything? Like giving access to the single market? Nope, that't didn't happen. The City of London not losing its business to Frankfurt etc. is true though. Also, some bureaucracy jobs are probably created to deal with all the compliance requirements for selling to EU through the new free trade deal.

padjo 4y ago

> The EU turned NI into a political football That’s a pretty bizarre interpretation of events given that it was the UK that threatened to unilaterally abandon the Northern Ireland protocol as a negotiating tactic

skippyboxedhero 4y ago
The NI protocol came significantly after the EU decided to turn the NI border into an issue in the Brexit negotiations (iirc, the EU's position paper was published in 2017). The reason why the UK had to look at unilateral action was: because the EU wouldn't negotiate (the original position paper was made with the premise that the UK would actually go back on Brexit and that the issue could be used to force another vote), because NI hadn't had a govt for years as a result, and because terrorist attacks were increasing. This isn't a negotiating tactic, the EU attempted to break up the UK in order to "win" at Brexit. You may call that a "bizarre interpretation" but the Windsor framework accepted this because all the EU's previous reservations were dropped entirely (i.e. they were negotiating tactics). The mistake that previous UK govts made was to accept the EU turning the UK's territorial integrity into an issue over, essentially, a trade deal.

123pie123 4y ago

>Trade with the EU is above pre-Brexit levels. please give details? please explain the costs and screw up to our military of pulling out of Galileo??

skippyboxedhero 4y ago
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/december2022 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpay... What has been the military cost of Brexit in Ukraine? The UK had to lead alone at the start, as we would have done in the EU. Foreign policy generally is one of the key advantages because, so far, the EU fails to be serious. The US has funded their defence for decades: anti-US. Blocked sanctions on Iran. Helped Russia break off Ukraine. Now moving closer to China. If the EU wants to do that, fine. But I don't see why any country needs to go along with that because Germany says so.
- 123pie123 4y ago
  that link only goes back to 2020?? I did NOT say anything about Ukraine - I'm talking about the next generation stuff, not the older stuff Ukraine is getting UK has gone to the 3rd country status and lost (Billions) crap loads of research on weapons - why do you think the gov has done the laughable investment in to OneWeb?? but Money does not seem to factor in to any discussions??
  - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
    Correct, the UK left the Single Market in 2021. Money? France is the only European country that spends anywhere close to the amount required by NATO on defence. European countries rely very heavily on the US. If we were in the EU, Europe is still not going to spend enough. OneWeb merged with Eutelsat. Iirc, the UK invested in OneWeb at a £1bn valuation, and the Eutelsat transaction valued OneWeb at just under £3bn. The UK govt gets a stake in the largest satellite company in Europe, it does so at a lower price by making a shrewd investment in a company in bankruptcy, and all outside of the EU.

jacooper 4y ago

Sources would be helpful, as your comment strongly goes against the common consensus against Brexit.

skippyboxedhero 4y ago
Ah, the "common consensus" (i.e. you) has spoken.
- jacooper 4y ago
  Actually no, most other comments and news coverage are against Brexit and are highlighting its negatives on the UK.
TapWaterBandit 4y ago
The common consensus, ay? Is this that same "common consensus" that ASSURED us that a lab leak in Wuhan was a ridiculous idea for the origin of Covid-19? Fair views on Brexit are hard to have in general but the idea the "common consensus" (or more specifically, the media consensus) is giving a fair one is nonsense.
- red-iron-pine 4y ago
  good attempt at whataboutism and derailing the narrative. other trolls -- get a look at this, you need to be copying this approach. Brexit, COVID, China, and a dig at what is implied to be mainstream media. Some masterfully crafted dog-whistles here.
  - TapWaterBandit 4y ago
    > Some masterfully crafted dog-whistles here. Some people's brains are so addled they think they hear dog whistles when really it is an original thought struggling to breakthrough from the sludge they've buried their mind with. No bigger tell these days for someone being an ideologue than dog whistle talk. Even the FBI is saying the lab leak is the most likely cause of Covid now. Must be a dog whistle I suppose (rolls eyes)

mrtksn 4y ago

Any rise which is below the inflation is actually a shrink. You can tell by having a %10 rise in your salary but the meal deal in Sainsbury's going from 3GBP to 4GBP. Guess what happens if EU sells it's 5GBP wines for 7GBP and UK sells it's 3GBP cheddar for 5GBP? Trade increase! EU Agreeing to everything? Like giving access to the single market? Nope, that't didn't happen. The City of London not losing its business to Frankfurt etc. is true though. Also, some bureaucracy jobs are probably created to deal with all the compliance requirements for selling to EU through the new free trade deal.