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I was more optimistic about EVs until I learned about the amount of CO2 produced by electricity generation in countris like Germany. nuclear energy has been la

I was more optimistic about EVs until I learned about the amount of CO2 produced by electricity generation in countris like Germany. nuclear energy has been largely phased down for political reasons and CO2 emissions are still on a level where EVs might not be much cleaner in comparison, see https://app.electricitymaps.com/map https://app.electricitymaps.com/map

olivermuty 4y ago
The EV will be better even if the energy mix was 100% brown coal? Just takes longer to offset the climate effects of making the battery. It’s just so wildly more efficient in operation.
- sshine 4y ago
  > It’s just so wildly more efficient in operation. Can you elaborate?
  - parker_mountain 4y ago
    ICE cars have a few key deficiencies - lots of energy lost to heat - aggregate efficiency lost to going to refueling stations - decreased efficiency over the life span of the vehicle EV cars have a few key efficiencies - able to regenerate power on braking (a HUGE amount, and also why hybrid cars last so long) - longer lifespan of vehicle and drive train (EVs are significantly more reliable, and the lack of moving parts means that wear takes quite a lot longer). an example of this in practice is the significantly better reliability of hybrid cars, which reduce hours on the ICE engine with batteries to great benefit and we haven't even unlocked all of the benefits, battery density, and recycling stories available for EVs that will propel them further. The key deficiencies for EVs right now are - cost - this has been going down over time, EVs are still firmly in the luxury segment, although we will likely see a new sub-$25k EV with reasonable mileage by the end of the decade - battery pollution - mining the batteries is bad, there is no way around it. battery recycling is a new technology and will be crucial for EVs in the future, both for cost reasons, but also pollution - tire pollution - the heavy weight of EVs leads to high particulate matter of rubber, but this is also something that is being actively worked on. It also increases load wear, but new battery tech will help mitigate this. - power grid - high ev saturation will overload the powergrid, although this is greatly mitigated by solar banking and low peak charging. This might be one of the hardest things to overcome, as it requires significant public spending, but it's not hopeless at all. No matter which way you look at it, EVs are the future, but there are still lots of issues to be worked on.
    - zamnos 4y ago
      Not just regenerate power on braking, but regenerative braking also means fewer consumables in the form of brake pads. Which, interestingly, the dust from pads is third after tires which is second to the ICE engine. The other thing we've still haven't had enough time to fully discover is how much individual cells wear out and the big picture of the economics of swapping out only the individual cell that's bad. There's already been some practical work doing that, I'm just not aware of any longitudinal studies about it.
    - reducesuffering 4y ago
      > we will likely see a new sub-$25k EV with reasonable mileage by the end of the decade Right now, 2023 Chevy Bolt are being sold in the US for $26.5k msrp, with $7.5k off EV credit, and a 259 mile range.
    - m463 4y ago
      > power grid Isn't the power grid a bunch of wires in the air or on the ground that can span thousands of miles? Compare that to oil wells, supertankers, refineries, fuel trucks and gas stations, it seems to be relatively benign infrastructure. also, I think with distributed pv solar and wind, the power grid will become more distributed. And I think fair time-of-use might solve problems too.
polytely 4y ago
Yes, but it is still a better situation to be in because then when you do start to moving toward renewables (which seems almost inevitable with the lowering costs of solar and batteries (battery improvements largely coming from EV development(?))) it will have more impact. EV's also have some other side benefits, like less noise (noise pollution is a real thing) and less air pollution (tires and asphalt are also a large part of car related air pollution).
- ehnto 4y ago
  Less air polution in cities will be an amazing change, I think people underestimate it since they either don't live in it or they are used to it. Countless studies regale the impact of local car polution on citizens. That EVs produce none while stopped in traffic, and significantly less overall is amazing, especially in the denser parts of a city. Anecdotally whenever I return home from time out in rural Australia, it takes me a while to adjust to the air pollution while near roads, and we have some of the cleanest air of any city.
bryanlarsen 4y ago
Your map shows that today Germany got about 35% of its power from coal, 15% from natgas and 50% from zero-carbon sources (nuclear & wind primarily). A coal powered EV has roughly equivalent emissions to a gasoline car, and a natgas powered EV has roughly 2/3 the emissions of a gasoline car. So a German EV would have roughly 0.35 + 0.15x2/3 + 0.5x0 = 0.45 the emissions of an EV. And you cherry picked one of the higher polluting countries.
- abdullahkhalids 4y ago
  > A coal powered EV has roughly equivalent emissions to a gasoline car, Can you cite this? Thank you
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Let's do the math the other way. Germany is showing 543 gCO₂eq/kWh. A gallon of gasoline is 8887 grams/gallon. Add 40% to account for refining & transporting the gas to the gas station. A Tesla at 5 miles/kWh emits 109 g/mile. A Camry at 30 mpg emits 415 g/mile.
    - niloc132 4y ago
      > A gallon of gas is 8887 grams/gallon. That doesn’t seem right, gas is 20-30% lighter than water and water is only 8lbs~=3600 grams.
      - Symbiote 4y ago
        The additional mass comes from oxygen from the air used to burn the fuel. Burn 1g of coal, to make it easy: C + O₂ → CO₂ Carbon has molecular mass 12g/mole (carbon has atomic weight ~12), carbon dioxide 44g/mole (12 + 2×16). So burning 1g of carbon produces 3.67g of CO₂.
        niloc132 4y ago
        Ah thanks, that does indeed line up the numbers I had misunderstood.
melling 4y ago
Have you considered that replacing a billion cars will take a couple decades, and it’s really not important that the grid is ready at the beginning. I’ve been having this discussion for a decade. The “do you know where the electricity comes from” group gets a little quieter every year. What’s really critical is getting the EV market jumpstarted. Controlling the emissions at several thousand power plants vs a billion cars is orders of magnitude easier.
ehnto 4y ago
That is just one part of the same legacy technology problem. As part of moving away from fossil fuels in general, we want to electrify transport and transform the grid to renewables or greener alternatives to fossil fuels. Not everywhere is doing well at the second part of the problem, but Germany's grid is already at 30% renewables, and has time to transform toward renewables while we attempt to electrify the vehicles. You can also shortcut the process if you own a house, by putting solar on your roof and charging from that. Places like California and South Australia have immense deployments of rooftop solar generation that have rocketed the states toward their renewables goals. South Australia generates over 70% of it's power from renewables. It went from 1% renewable to 70%+ in just 15 years.

olivermuty 4y ago

The EV will be better even if the energy mix was 100% brown coal? Just takes longer to offset the climate effects of making the battery. It’s just so wildly more efficient in operation.

sshine 4y ago
> It’s just so wildly more efficient in operation. Can you elaborate?
- parker_mountain 4y ago
  ICE cars have a few key deficiencies - lots of energy lost to heat - aggregate efficiency lost to going to refueling stations - decreased efficiency over the life span of the vehicle EV cars have a few key efficiencies - able to regenerate power on braking (a HUGE amount, and also why hybrid cars last so long) - longer lifespan of vehicle and drive train (EVs are significantly more reliable, and the lack of moving parts means that wear takes quite a lot longer). an example of this in practice is the significantly better reliability of hybrid cars, which reduce hours on the ICE engine with batteries to great benefit and we haven't even unlocked all of the benefits, battery density, and recycling stories available for EVs that will propel them further. The key deficiencies for EVs right now are - cost - this has been going down over time, EVs are still firmly in the luxury segment, although we will likely see a new sub-$25k EV with reasonable mileage by the end of the decade - battery pollution - mining the batteries is bad, there is no way around it. battery recycling is a new technology and will be crucial for EVs in the future, both for cost reasons, but also pollution - tire pollution - the heavy weight of EVs leads to high particulate matter of rubber, but this is also something that is being actively worked on. It also increases load wear, but new battery tech will help mitigate this. - power grid - high ev saturation will overload the powergrid, although this is greatly mitigated by solar banking and low peak charging. This might be one of the hardest things to overcome, as it requires significant public spending, but it's not hopeless at all. No matter which way you look at it, EVs are the future, but there are still lots of issues to be worked on.
  - zamnos 4y ago
    Not just regenerate power on braking, but regenerative braking also means fewer consumables in the form of brake pads. Which, interestingly, the dust from pads is third after tires which is second to the ICE engine. The other thing we've still haven't had enough time to fully discover is how much individual cells wear out and the big picture of the economics of swapping out only the individual cell that's bad. There's already been some practical work doing that, I'm just not aware of any longitudinal studies about it.
  - reducesuffering 4y ago
    > we will likely see a new sub-$25k EV with reasonable mileage by the end of the decade Right now, 2023 Chevy Bolt are being sold in the US for $26.5k msrp, with $7.5k off EV credit, and a 259 mile range.
  - m463 4y ago
    > power grid Isn't the power grid a bunch of wires in the air or on the ground that can span thousands of miles? Compare that to oil wells, supertankers, refineries, fuel trucks and gas stations, it seems to be relatively benign infrastructure. also, I think with distributed pv solar and wind, the power grid will become more distributed. And I think fair time-of-use might solve problems too.

polytely 4y ago

Yes, but it is still a better situation to be in because then when you do start to moving toward renewables (which seems almost inevitable with the lowering costs of solar and batteries (battery improvements largely coming from EV development(?))) it will have more impact. EV's also have some other side benefits, like less noise (noise pollution is a real thing) and less air pollution (tires and asphalt are also a large part of car related air pollution).

ehnto 4y ago
Less air polution in cities will be an amazing change, I think people underestimate it since they either don't live in it or they are used to it. Countless studies regale the impact of local car polution on citizens. That EVs produce none while stopped in traffic, and significantly less overall is amazing, especially in the denser parts of a city. Anecdotally whenever I return home from time out in rural Australia, it takes me a while to adjust to the air pollution while near roads, and we have some of the cleanest air of any city.

bryanlarsen 4y ago

Your map shows that today Germany got about 35% of its power from coal, 15% from natgas and 50% from zero-carbon sources (nuclear & wind primarily). A coal powered EV has roughly equivalent emissions to a gasoline car, and a natgas powered EV has roughly 2/3 the emissions of a gasoline car. So a German EV would have roughly 0.35 + 0.15x2/3 + 0.5x0 = 0.45 the emissions of an EV. And you cherry picked one of the higher polluting countries.

abdullahkhalids 4y ago
> A coal powered EV has roughly equivalent emissions to a gasoline car, Can you cite this? Thank you
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Let's do the math the other way. Germany is showing 543 gCO₂eq/kWh. A gallon of gasoline is 8887 grams/gallon. Add 40% to account for refining & transporting the gas to the gas station. A Tesla at 5 miles/kWh emits 109 g/mile. A Camry at 30 mpg emits 415 g/mile.
  - niloc132 4y ago
    > A gallon of gas is 8887 grams/gallon. That doesn’t seem right, gas is 20-30% lighter than water and water is only 8lbs~=3600 grams.
    - Symbiote 4y ago
      The additional mass comes from oxygen from the air used to burn the fuel. Burn 1g of coal, to make it easy: C + O₂ → CO₂ Carbon has molecular mass 12g/mole (carbon has atomic weight ~12), carbon dioxide 44g/mole (12 + 2×16). So burning 1g of carbon produces 3.67g of CO₂.
      - niloc132 4y ago
        Ah thanks, that does indeed line up the numbers I had misunderstood.

melling 4y ago

Have you considered that replacing a billion cars will take a couple decades, and it’s really not important that the grid is ready at the beginning. I’ve been having this discussion for a decade. The “do you know where the electricity comes from” group gets a little quieter every year. What’s really critical is getting the EV market jumpstarted. Controlling the emissions at several thousand power plants vs a billion cars is orders of magnitude easier.

ehnto 4y ago

That is just one part of the same legacy technology problem. As part of moving away from fossil fuels in general, we want to electrify transport and transform the grid to renewables or greener alternatives to fossil fuels. Not everywhere is doing well at the second part of the problem, but Germany's grid is already at 30% renewables, and has time to transform toward renewables while we attempt to electrify the vehicles. You can also shortcut the process if you own a house, by putting solar on your roof and charging from that. Places like California and South Australia have immense deployments of rooftop solar generation that have rocketed the states toward their renewables goals. South Australia generates over 70% of it's power from renewables. It went from 1% renewable to 70%+ in just 15 years.