5 ms·

"I really don't want to spend years of my life on something which has a 90% chance of being worthless." How does that mesh with the fact that a failed startup

"I really don't want to spend years of my life on something which has a 90% chance of being worthless." How does that mesh with the fact that a failed startup is probably worthless (in the literal sense that you can't make money from it), and most startups probably have >90% failure rate? I know there is a learning experience in startups and that working hard on something fun is valuable, so worthless is really just talking about immediate money here.

cperciva 19y ago
I don't think my probability of failure is 90%. :-) This isn't as naive as it sounds: If you take VC with standard liquidation preference terms, the company needs to do really well before you get anything back -- so the amount of money you need to avoid "failing" is dramatically increased. In my case, since I don't intend to take any VC, there's a wide range between "failure" (making less money than I would have earned risk-free by working at the university for the same duration) and "success" (making enough money that I never need to work again). Also, on a more self-serving note: I'm a heck of a lot more competent than 90% of startup founders. Or even 90% of YC-funded-startup founders for that matter -- and YC-funded startups have distinctly less than a 90% failure rate.
- ivankirigin 19y ago
  "Or even 90% of YC-funded-startup founders for that matter" Not to deny this, as I don't know anything about you, but... that is a very bold statement.
  - cperciva 19y ago
    Of course it's a bold statement. But if I wasn't bold, I wouldn't have started university at age 13, set three world records for calculating pi (a stunt, I admit), ranked in the top six mathematics undergraduates in North America, received a $100k+ scholarship to Oxford University (not the Rhodes, unfortunately -- their mistake), received a doctorate in computer science from said university, and become the security officer for the FreeBSD operating system.
    - sanj 19y ago
      Did you win the Putnam? If not, please don't be "bolder" than this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_Vakil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_Vakil
      - cperciva 19y ago
        "Did you win the Putnam?" Yes, I did.
        pg 19y ago
        That has to be the comeback of all time.
        ivankirigin 19y ago
        HAHAHA! Awesome.
        Alex3917 19y ago
        This whole thread is hilarious.
        kf 19y ago
        News.YC does flame wars a whole lot better than the rest of the internet...
        ordersup 19y ago
        Sometimes with the flames on here however, it feels like Craigslist forums, in all of their 2.0 glory... ;)
      - sanj 19y ago
        Damn. I'm totally busted. Just the once, though, huh?
        cperciva 19y ago
- create_account 19y ago
  Well, if you want to impress people with your startup prowess, you're better off succeeding in that context before bragging about it. I have no opinion of you or your entrepreneurial abilities in the same way a physicist has no opinion of gravity. If I can measure what you've done (e.g. in terms of customers, revenues, successful exit sale, etc.) then I'll respect you (or not).

cperciva 19y ago

I don't think my probability of failure is 90%. :-) This isn't as naive as it sounds: If you take VC with standard liquidation preference terms, the company needs to do really well before you get anything back -- so the amount of money you need to avoid "failing" is dramatically increased. In my case, since I don't intend to take any VC, there's a wide range between "failure" (making less money than I would have earned risk-free by working at the university for the same duration) and "success" (making enough money that I never need to work again). Also, on a more self-serving note: I'm a heck of a lot more competent than 90% of startup founders. Or even 90% of YC-funded-startup founders for that matter -- and YC-funded startups have distinctly less than a 90% failure rate.

ivankirigin 19y ago
"Or even 90% of YC-funded-startup founders for that matter" Not to deny this, as I don't know anything about you, but... that is a very bold statement.
- cperciva 19y ago
  Of course it's a bold statement. But if I wasn't bold, I wouldn't have started university at age 13, set three world records for calculating pi (a stunt, I admit), ranked in the top six mathematics undergraduates in North America, received a $100k+ scholarship to Oxford University (not the Rhodes, unfortunately -- their mistake), received a doctorate in computer science from said university, and become the security officer for the FreeBSD operating system.
  - sanj 19y ago
    Did you win the Putnam? If not, please don't be "bolder" than this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_Vakil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_Vakil
    - cperciva 19y ago
      "Did you win the Putnam?" Yes, I did.
      - pg 19y ago
        That has to be the comeback of all time.
      - ivankirigin 19y ago
        HAHAHA! Awesome.
        Alex3917 19y ago
        This whole thread is hilarious.
      - kf 19y ago
        News.YC does flame wars a whole lot better than the rest of the internet...
        ordersup 19y ago
        Sometimes with the flames on here however, it feels like Craigslist forums, in all of their 2.0 glory... ;)
    - sanj 19y ago
      Damn. I'm totally busted. Just the once, though, huh?
      - cperciva 19y ago
create_account 19y ago
Well, if you want to impress people with your startup prowess, you're better off succeeding in that context before bragging about it. I have no opinion of you or your entrepreneurial abilities in the same way a physicist has no opinion of gravity. If I can measure what you've done (e.g. in terms of customers, revenues, successful exit sale, etc.) then I'll respect you (or not).