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> This is another example of how the state gets its numbers wrong, promising something it can not deliver without bankrupting the country. France pension syste

> This is another example of how the state gets its numbers wrong, promising something it can not deliver without bankrupting the country. France pension system isn't close to bankruptcy. It needs some adjustment but pushing retirement age isn't the only option. Also one thing to understand is that there are two criteria to get a full pension 1. work 43 years (this used to be 36.5 but has been increased 10 years ago), so we're not feeling this yet 2. be at least 62 The reform wants to push 62 to 64 in 2. The problem is that educated people will already retire after 64 because of the first constraint. So this reform targets explicitly those who started to work younger, and who are also those with lower life expectancy and with the hardest job. This is unfair. At the same time, France (as in French citizen) has never been as rich in history as it is now. There should be better wealth redistribution here. It's very apparent when you look at the numbers. Another issue is employment. In practice, a lot of people struggle to find a job when they are 55+. These reforms will increase poverty in the country. Last point. France isn't like the US were people are incentized to build equity for their retirement. The rule of the game here is that current employees pay for retirees and in exchange expect their pension to be taken care of when they are older. The rules are changing midway and people are upset about it.

bsaul 4y ago
"france has never been as rich in history". Which number are you talking about ? It seems like a pretty hard fact to demonstrate. If you look at the production of france-based international companies, then you're also including the production performed by citizen of other countries. If you look at total revenue per inhabitant, then you need to adjust for inflation, and the fact that some citizen gain revenues from production performed in other countries (via shares, or simply working in a multinational company) What's clear however, is that france as never been ranked lower in every international ranking (education and economy) as today.
- Twisell 4y ago
  That's the point right wing neoliberal policies applied in France over the last two decades have degraded life conditions of the commons people and only maximized record profit of french shareholders (this is what OP was referring to "never as rich in history") So yeah maybe it's time to stop trying to fix the french model by applying the same recipes that increased inequalities in the US in the first place...
  - bsaul 4y ago
    We are so far away from anything remotely looking like liberalism.. france has the worst of both worlds : a behemot of a public sectors, costing a fortune, but undergoing enough random budget cuts to make it also very bad at fullfilling its mission. It’s a disaster, but it’s very very far from anything remotely looking like a liberal economy..
    - Twisell 4y ago
      Yes and this is precisely why many french economists make this distinction by referring to the term "neo-liberalisme" maybe the meaning is somehow lost in translation. French neo-liberalisme is what you describe, the worst of both world. A strong state that impose highly impacting laws on both public and private sector. The difference between left wing strong state policies is that theses laws tends to benefit huge companies and shareholders instead of common people and small business.
      - bsaul 4y ago
        le néolibéralisme est une doctrine de critique radicale de la main-mise de l'état sur l'économie. La signification est la même en français. C'est ce que faisaient regan et thatcher, et ça n'a rien à voir avec les politiques de de gaulle chirac ou françois hollande. Même les plus à droite comme sarkozy continuaient d'avoir une vision très jacobine de l'état.
        Twisell 4y ago
        Ok ben alors le premier truc qu'un gouvernement vraiment libéral devrait faire c'est supprimer l'ARENH ou encore plaider pour l'arrêt immédiat du "quantitative easing" qui est la pire forme d'interventionnisme. C'est par ce type de contradiction que le néolibéralisme actuel se distingue je trouve de son idéologie parente. En fait il y a un ambiguïté forte autour de ce terme et une différence observable entre la théorie et les politiques menées qui sont censées s'en inspirer. Donc pour ma part quand je me réfère au néolibéralisme français je pense plutôt à "la doctrine politique néolibérale appliquée en France ces 20 dernières années et ce qu'elle a entraînée". Parce qu'une théorie économique coupée de son contexte et de ses conséquences n'est qu'un objet intellectuel abstrait et inutile. Si on excuse les conséquences de l'application du néolibéralisme, on devrait par exemple excuser de la même manière les conséquences de l'application du communisme en URSS. Pour ma part j'estime qu'aucune des deux doctrines (parmi d'autres) n'ont résistées a l'épreuve du réel. La doctrine de demain, adaptée au défi climatique notamment reste à inventer (et dans l'idéal via une transition démocratique et pas un bain de sang).
dh2022 4y ago
But the rules have to change because the demographics changed. The number of old people is increasing, the size of the workforce is not increasing.
- ChemSpider 4y ago
  That.Is.It. Simple math. France will (have to) move to 64 and later to 67. If not this year, then in a few years. Any many EU countries might even have to move to 70, Germany for sure. People live longer (great), so they also have to work longer.
  - Twisell 4y ago
    Do you frankly believe that french civilisation is dumb or masochist enough to have produced like ten thousands of hours of passionates TV debates (to pick only one metric) if the underlying math was simple?
    - dh2022 4y ago
      Because while the math is simple, the politics are very complicated. Which fills these hours of passionate TV debates.
      - Twisell 4y ago
        Even if this was true, I would like to point out that a good part of this debates is about the accuracy of the input data used for the math. With disputed input data math is never simple just ask any data analyst around. Edit: Also this math involve predictions about demographics evolution over the next decades in a global warming and war in europe context. Both can result in unpredictable populations movements. This is never simple ask any demographer around. Edit2: What is complicated about politics especially in french strong state tradition is that laws reform are precisely meant to alter the input data of your model, often with unforeseen side effects, so it's not simple math ask any historian around. This especially worst in France because it's a known and widely discussed issue that the government is indirectly doctoring some key statistics like unemployment data. Changing the metric while you are rolling out a reform is at this point a patented french strategy to prevent any citizen to evaluate a new policy.
conradfr 4y ago
One more point is that the employment rate for 55+yo in France is quite bad (56% in 2021 for 55-64yo). So for a lot of people pushing the retirement age means surviving two more years with their savings and the small welfare benefit (as regular unemployment benefit is capped at two years). This is not addressed at all by this reform. Also the government was caught lying about some aspects of this reform (and still do). edit: not sure why downvoted for adding facts
ChemSpider 4y ago
Many countries in the EU have 67 as retirement age - so 64 does not feel a big issue to me. (France and Malta are the only one with 62) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe
- yodsanklai 4y ago
  France isn't 62, it is (according to your link) > 62 to 67: Depends on the duration of contribution (minimum 43 years) For instance, for me it will be 67. Besides, these numbers don't mean anything without context.
  - Jyaif 4y ago
    Only just realised it will be 67 for me as well. In a way that's great news: I won't feel bad taking a sabbatical. Unless the limit is raised of course.
    - yodsanklai 4y ago
      > I won't feel bad taking a sabbatical It's not that easy unfortunately ;) If you have less than 43 years, the amount of your pension will be decreased according to some formula. At 67, you'll get the full pension no matter what. But this amount is also determined by the number of years you worked. So if you take a sabbatical, or go work abroad for a few years, you won't get the full amount. I recommend that you do a simulation of what your retirement will be. I think it's something like 50% of your 25 best years, if you worked 43 years. Then it depends what you invested outside of the system.
jandrewrogers 4y ago
> France isn't like the US were people are incentized to build equity for their retirement. This is true but puzzling for one reason: the US pension system (Social Security) pays retirees the same amount of money as the French one. US pensions are not ungenerous compared to Europe. Americans are incentivized by the government to build equity in addition to their government pension, so that they are not wholly dependent on the government pension -- this has been a consistent part of the messaging. I think this takes some pressure off the US pension system, since it creates a joint responsibility between the individual and the government, rather than putting it all on the government to unilaterally solve this problem to everyone's satisfaction. I do understand that it is easier to build equity in the US than Europe, so that probably is a factor in how the population views it.
- yodsanklai 4y ago
  Yes, an American friend of mine just started to claim its SS pension and it seemed reasonable compared to what we would get, but that's just one data point. And the US is a much richer country with higher wages, so that plays a role. I think, for most French, the retirement model was that we should own a house/apt by the time we retire, and then our pension would be enough to cover our expenses. It seems we're transitioning to a system more akin to the US and it's causing some friction as we're not prepared. Another interesting point to me is that the retirement age is causing protests, but we were essentially screwed when they increased the number of worked years from 36 to 43 - which arguably was a necessary reform. Someone who started to work at 23 (college graduate - HN demographics) won't retire before 66. At that point, my concern isn't so much about working until 66, but having a job at that age. Working in tech, I don't see many people over 50 around me.
ur-whale 4y ago
> France pension system isn't close to bankruptcy. Citation required. Last I looked, France's national debt as a percent of its GDP wasn't exactly in happy territory. On the other hand, if you believe that France will continue to be able to borrow for eternity to feed its increasingly large retiree population, then yes you are correct: when a banker is always ready to lend you money however large your existing debt, you can never physically go bankrupt.
- yodsanklai 4y ago
  I can't find citation in English https://www.retraite.com/dossier-retraite/le-deficit-du-systeme-de-retraite-francais.html https://www.retraite.com/dossier-retraite/le-deficit-du-syst... Roughly 20 billion euro per year, which isn't big. For comparison, public debt is 3000 billion. Bernard Arnault net worth is 120 billion (6 times more than 10 years ago), Total profit in 2022 is 40 billions. There must be ways to have better wealth redistribution.
  - bsaul 4y ago
    The reason bernard arnault is rich is partly because of tax cuts, but mostly because the luxury industry sells well internationally. The reason french people in general are poor is because france, as a country, is collapsing, because french people have been voting for the wrong people for the last 50 years. People that managed to sell their skills to other countries are less affected.
_2uwr 4y ago
> France pension system isn't close to bankruptcy. You are in the Euro zone now and whilst France, Germany and Italy are the main sponsors, I haven't forgotten the Greek Govt crisis of 2009. I know Norwegians are paper millionaires because of where the Norwegian govt has invested like a state hedge fund, but start cashing that in and and like share prices, the status of paper millionaire will decline rapidly, in much the same way if Zuck cashed in his Facebook shares. > France isn't like the US were people are incentized to build equity for their retirement. I know, the price of some of your chateaux's are an absolute steal compared to UK houseprices. > The rule of the game here is that current employees pay for retirees and in exchange expect their pension to be taken care of when they are older. The rules are changing midway and people are upset about it. Well the US Boomer rhetoric perhaps exemplifies the younger generations dislike of their grandparents (and parents) being able to raise a family on one wage, job for life, afford a reasonable family sized home, and have a comfortable lifestyle and retirement, shows how some countries have kind of shafted their young. Here in the UK, the North Sea oil and gas revenues were _supposed_ to have paid off the UK's national debt, I see that hasnt happened! But with govt's like this, who needs enemies, when the vampire state sucks the life out of you with the "Death and taxes" idiom.

bsaul 4y ago

"france has never been as rich in history". Which number are you talking about ? It seems like a pretty hard fact to demonstrate. If you look at the production of france-based international companies, then you're also including the production performed by citizen of other countries. If you look at total revenue per inhabitant, then you need to adjust for inflation, and the fact that some citizen gain revenues from production performed in other countries (via shares, or simply working in a multinational company) What's clear however, is that france as never been ranked lower in every international ranking (education and economy) as today.

Twisell 4y ago
That's the point right wing neoliberal policies applied in France over the last two decades have degraded life conditions of the commons people and only maximized record profit of french shareholders (this is what OP was referring to "never as rich in history") So yeah maybe it's time to stop trying to fix the french model by applying the same recipes that increased inequalities in the US in the first place...
- bsaul 4y ago
  We are so far away from anything remotely looking like liberalism.. france has the worst of both worlds : a behemot of a public sectors, costing a fortune, but undergoing enough random budget cuts to make it also very bad at fullfilling its mission. It’s a disaster, but it’s very very far from anything remotely looking like a liberal economy..
  - Twisell 4y ago
    Yes and this is precisely why many french economists make this distinction by referring to the term "neo-liberalisme" maybe the meaning is somehow lost in translation. French neo-liberalisme is what you describe, the worst of both world. A strong state that impose highly impacting laws on both public and private sector. The difference between left wing strong state policies is that theses laws tends to benefit huge companies and shareholders instead of common people and small business.
    - bsaul 4y ago
      le néolibéralisme est une doctrine de critique radicale de la main-mise de l'état sur l'économie. La signification est la même en français. C'est ce que faisaient regan et thatcher, et ça n'a rien à voir avec les politiques de de gaulle chirac ou françois hollande. Même les plus à droite comme sarkozy continuaient d'avoir une vision très jacobine de l'état.
      - Twisell 4y ago
        Ok ben alors le premier truc qu'un gouvernement vraiment libéral devrait faire c'est supprimer l'ARENH ou encore plaider pour l'arrêt immédiat du "quantitative easing" qui est la pire forme d'interventionnisme. C'est par ce type de contradiction que le néolibéralisme actuel se distingue je trouve de son idéologie parente. En fait il y a un ambiguïté forte autour de ce terme et une différence observable entre la théorie et les politiques menées qui sont censées s'en inspirer. Donc pour ma part quand je me réfère au néolibéralisme français je pense plutôt à "la doctrine politique néolibérale appliquée en France ces 20 dernières années et ce qu'elle a entraînée". Parce qu'une théorie économique coupée de son contexte et de ses conséquences n'est qu'un objet intellectuel abstrait et inutile. Si on excuse les conséquences de l'application du néolibéralisme, on devrait par exemple excuser de la même manière les conséquences de l'application du communisme en URSS. Pour ma part j'estime qu'aucune des deux doctrines (parmi d'autres) n'ont résistées a l'épreuve du réel. La doctrine de demain, adaptée au défi climatique notamment reste à inventer (et dans l'idéal via une transition démocratique et pas un bain de sang).

dh2022 4y ago

But the rules have to change because the demographics changed. The number of old people is increasing, the size of the workforce is not increasing.

ChemSpider 4y ago
That.Is.It. Simple math. France will (have to) move to 64 and later to 67. If not this year, then in a few years. Any many EU countries might even have to move to 70, Germany for sure. People live longer (great), so they also have to work longer.
- Twisell 4y ago
  Do you frankly believe that french civilisation is dumb or masochist enough to have produced like ten thousands of hours of passionates TV debates (to pick only one metric) if the underlying math was simple?
  - dh2022 4y ago
    Because while the math is simple, the politics are very complicated. Which fills these hours of passionate TV debates.
    - Twisell 4y ago
      Even if this was true, I would like to point out that a good part of this debates is about the accuracy of the input data used for the math. With disputed input data math is never simple just ask any data analyst around. Edit: Also this math involve predictions about demographics evolution over the next decades in a global warming and war in europe context. Both can result in unpredictable populations movements. This is never simple ask any demographer around. Edit2: What is complicated about politics especially in french strong state tradition is that laws reform are precisely meant to alter the input data of your model, often with unforeseen side effects, so it's not simple math ask any historian around. This especially worst in France because it's a known and widely discussed issue that the government is indirectly doctoring some key statistics like unemployment data. Changing the metric while you are rolling out a reform is at this point a patented french strategy to prevent any citizen to evaluate a new policy.

conradfr 4y ago

One more point is that the employment rate for 55+yo in France is quite bad (56% in 2021 for 55-64yo). So for a lot of people pushing the retirement age means surviving two more years with their savings and the small welfare benefit (as regular unemployment benefit is capped at two years). This is not addressed at all by this reform. Also the government was caught lying about some aspects of this reform (and still do). edit: not sure why downvoted for adding facts

ChemSpider 4y ago

Many countries in the EU have 67 as retirement age - so 64 does not feel a big issue to me. (France and Malta are the only one with 62) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe

yodsanklai 4y ago
France isn't 62, it is (according to your link) > 62 to 67: Depends on the duration of contribution (minimum 43 years) For instance, for me it will be 67. Besides, these numbers don't mean anything without context.
- Jyaif 4y ago
  Only just realised it will be 67 for me as well. In a way that's great news: I won't feel bad taking a sabbatical. Unless the limit is raised of course.
  - yodsanklai 4y ago
    > I won't feel bad taking a sabbatical It's not that easy unfortunately ;) If you have less than 43 years, the amount of your pension will be decreased according to some formula. At 67, you'll get the full pension no matter what. But this amount is also determined by the number of years you worked. So if you take a sabbatical, or go work abroad for a few years, you won't get the full amount. I recommend that you do a simulation of what your retirement will be. I think it's something like 50% of your 25 best years, if you worked 43 years. Then it depends what you invested outside of the system.

jandrewrogers 4y ago

> France isn't like the US were people are incentized to build equity for their retirement. This is true but puzzling for one reason: the US pension system (Social Security) pays retirees the same amount of money as the French one. US pensions are not ungenerous compared to Europe. Americans are incentivized by the government to build equity in addition to their government pension, so that they are not wholly dependent on the government pension -- this has been a consistent part of the messaging. I think this takes some pressure off the US pension system, since it creates a joint responsibility between the individual and the government, rather than putting it all on the government to unilaterally solve this problem to everyone's satisfaction. I do understand that it is easier to build equity in the US than Europe, so that probably is a factor in how the population views it.

yodsanklai 4y ago
Yes, an American friend of mine just started to claim its SS pension and it seemed reasonable compared to what we would get, but that's just one data point. And the US is a much richer country with higher wages, so that plays a role. I think, for most French, the retirement model was that we should own a house/apt by the time we retire, and then our pension would be enough to cover our expenses. It seems we're transitioning to a system more akin to the US and it's causing some friction as we're not prepared. Another interesting point to me is that the retirement age is causing protests, but we were essentially screwed when they increased the number of worked years from 36 to 43 - which arguably was a necessary reform. Someone who started to work at 23 (college graduate - HN demographics) won't retire before 66. At that point, my concern isn't so much about working until 66, but having a job at that age. Working in tech, I don't see many people over 50 around me.

ur-whale 4y ago

> France pension system isn't close to bankruptcy. Citation required. Last I looked, France's national debt as a percent of its GDP wasn't exactly in happy territory. On the other hand, if you believe that France will continue to be able to borrow for eternity to feed its increasingly large retiree population, then yes you are correct: when a banker is always ready to lend you money however large your existing debt, you can never physically go bankrupt.

yodsanklai 4y ago
I can't find citation in English https://www.retraite.com/dossier-retraite/le-deficit-du-systeme-de-retraite-francais.html https://www.retraite.com/dossier-retraite/le-deficit-du-syst... Roughly 20 billion euro per year, which isn't big. For comparison, public debt is 3000 billion. Bernard Arnault net worth is 120 billion (6 times more than 10 years ago), Total profit in 2022 is 40 billions. There must be ways to have better wealth redistribution.
- bsaul 4y ago
  The reason bernard arnault is rich is partly because of tax cuts, but mostly because the luxury industry sells well internationally. The reason french people in general are poor is because france, as a country, is collapsing, because french people have been voting for the wrong people for the last 50 years. People that managed to sell their skills to other countries are less affected.

_2uwr 4y ago

> France pension system isn't close to bankruptcy. You are in the Euro zone now and whilst France, Germany and Italy are the main sponsors, I haven't forgotten the Greek Govt crisis of 2009. I know Norwegians are paper millionaires because of where the Norwegian govt has invested like a state hedge fund, but start cashing that in and and like share prices, the status of paper millionaire will decline rapidly, in much the same way if Zuck cashed in his Facebook shares. > France isn't like the US were people are incentized to build equity for their retirement. I know, the price of some of your chateaux's are an absolute steal compared to UK houseprices. > The rule of the game here is that current employees pay for retirees and in exchange expect their pension to be taken care of when they are older. The rules are changing midway and people are upset about it. Well the US Boomer rhetoric perhaps exemplifies the younger generations dislike of their grandparents (and parents) being able to raise a family on one wage, job for life, afford a reasonable family sized home, and have a comfortable lifestyle and retirement, shows how some countries have kind of shafted their young. Here in the UK, the North Sea oil and gas revenues were _supposed_ to have paid off the UK's national debt, I see that hasnt happened! But with govt's like this, who needs enemies, when the vampire state sucks the life out of you with the "Death and taxes" idiom.