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We all know what Russia and Putin are capable of. It must be some Russian separatist groups in Ukraine pretending to be pro-Ukraine had sabotaged the pipelines.

We all know what Russia and Putin are capable of. It must be some Russian separatist groups in Ukraine pretending to be pro-Ukraine had sabotaged the pipelines. We are in the midst of another disinformation campaign by Russia.

unmole 4y ago
What exactly does Russia accomplish by blowing up the pipeline?
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
  I don't like this line of thought because people and nations are not perfectly logical. People and nations sabotage and act against their own best interests all the time for dick measuring reasons. It still comes down to fallible humans making the decisions.
  - unmole 4y ago
    So, we make up whatever narrative we want that aligns with our existing biases even when it makes no sense?
    - 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
      We don't make anything up. We try to stick to facts rather than psychoanalyze fallible, impulsive, irrational humans.
      - kubectl_h 4y ago
        The facts are that the two countries that stand to gain the most from blowing up the pipeline are the Ukraine and the United States. Russia has very little to gain.
        2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
        The facts are that your account is 81 days old and you say, "the Ukraine". Given these facts someone might conclude that you're a shill. You could be, but it doesn't necessarily follow.
        kubectl_h 4y ago
        This is an unhinged reply. Also people say "the Ukraine", so? And what would I be shilling? I'd suggest common sense, but the terminally online seem hungry for war and global conflict these days so they all seem to be checking that at the door.
      - unmole 4y ago
        Facts like these? > It must be some Russian separatist groups in Ukraine pretending to be pro-Ukraine had sabotaged the pipelines. We are in the midst of another disinformation campaign by Russia.
  - croes 4y ago
    You mean like a pro Ukrainian group blowing up the pipeline and risking losing western partners?
  - vintermann 4y ago
    In general, I agree! But there's limits. We can't even come up with a stupid thing that Putin would have believed, for this to make sense on his own terms. Then there's the question of capability. We're supposed to believe they do extremely stupid things, but also do it with such superhuman competence that we don't have a clue afterwards.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > What exactly does Russia accomplish by blowing up the pipeline? A threat directed at Baltic Pipe. Which makes sense if you think their basis is that leverage with gas supplies through Nordstream had failed and it had lost its value for that purpose (and it wasn't making money, for the same reason), and that they were desirous enough for any (even low probability of success) leverage on European action to take an action which would remove that theoretical long-term asset whose utility had diminished for an (also low probability) additional swing at intimidation. Just as a pro-Ukrainian attack makes sense if you think that their basis was that Russian leverage with gas supplies, though at the time not producing, was only transitionally failing and was likely to recover soon enough to be strategically relevant, or at least probable enough to make an action which, if traced back, could boomerang badly on image of their cause to eliminate the possibility. I think a lot of people narrow possibilities of who could have done a thing because they ascribe their own assessment of the strategic situation to all participants, when, in fact, parties to the conflict often have very different views of the strategic situation than each other, much less random outside observers.
TurkishPoptart 4y ago
1) There is no evidence for that. 2) If thinking Russia did it, it's irrational to blow up one's own money-making infrastructure. 3) If thinking it's a separatist group, it's not a reasonable idea. The technology, tactics, and scale of committing that with a Russian separatist budget without anyone finding out is hard to imagine. It'd be far easier, I imagine, to try to just shoot/grenade Putin than do that.
croes 4y ago
We all saw how we overestimated the capabilities of russia. So I doubt that Russia could pull such sort of attack.
steponlego 4y ago
You guys are pretty much out of fighting age males, but you're also pretty much out of gas for your propaganda wing too aren't you?

unmole 4y ago

What exactly does Russia accomplish by blowing up the pipeline?

2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
I don't like this line of thought because people and nations are not perfectly logical. People and nations sabotage and act against their own best interests all the time for dick measuring reasons. It still comes down to fallible humans making the decisions.
- unmole 4y ago
  So, we make up whatever narrative we want that aligns with our existing biases even when it makes no sense?
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
    We don't make anything up. We try to stick to facts rather than psychoanalyze fallible, impulsive, irrational humans.
    - kubectl_h 4y ago
      The facts are that the two countries that stand to gain the most from blowing up the pipeline are the Ukraine and the United States. Russia has very little to gain.
      - 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
        The facts are that your account is 81 days old and you say, "the Ukraine". Given these facts someone might conclude that you're a shill. You could be, but it doesn't necessarily follow.
        kubectl_h 4y ago
        This is an unhinged reply. Also people say "the Ukraine", so? And what would I be shilling? I'd suggest common sense, but the terminally online seem hungry for war and global conflict these days so they all seem to be checking that at the door.
    - unmole 4y ago
      Facts like these? > It must be some Russian separatist groups in Ukraine pretending to be pro-Ukraine had sabotaged the pipelines. We are in the midst of another disinformation campaign by Russia.
- croes 4y ago
  You mean like a pro Ukrainian group blowing up the pipeline and risking losing western partners?
- vintermann 4y ago
  In general, I agree! But there's limits. We can't even come up with a stupid thing that Putin would have believed, for this to make sense on his own terms. Then there's the question of capability. We're supposed to believe they do extremely stupid things, but also do it with such superhuman competence that we don't have a clue afterwards.
dragonwriter 4y ago
> What exactly does Russia accomplish by blowing up the pipeline? A threat directed at Baltic Pipe. Which makes sense if you think their basis is that leverage with gas supplies through Nordstream had failed and it had lost its value for that purpose (and it wasn't making money, for the same reason), and that they were desirous enough for any (even low probability of success) leverage on European action to take an action which would remove that theoretical long-term asset whose utility had diminished for an (also low probability) additional swing at intimidation. Just as a pro-Ukrainian attack makes sense if you think that their basis was that Russian leverage with gas supplies, though at the time not producing, was only transitionally failing and was likely to recover soon enough to be strategically relevant, or at least probable enough to make an action which, if traced back, could boomerang badly on image of their cause to eliminate the possibility. I think a lot of people narrow possibilities of who could have done a thing because they ascribe their own assessment of the strategic situation to all participants, when, in fact, parties to the conflict often have very different views of the strategic situation than each other, much less random outside observers.

TurkishPoptart 4y ago

1) There is no evidence for that. 2) If thinking Russia did it, it's irrational to blow up one's own money-making infrastructure. 3) If thinking it's a separatist group, it's not a reasonable idea. The technology, tactics, and scale of committing that with a Russian separatist budget without anyone finding out is hard to imagine. It'd be far easier, I imagine, to try to just shoot/grenade Putin than do that.

croes 4y ago

We all saw how we overestimated the capabilities of russia. So I doubt that Russia could pull such sort of attack.

steponlego 4y ago

You guys are pretty much out of fighting age males, but you're also pretty much out of gas for your propaganda wing too aren't you?