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> Reality going forward is Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that will neve

> Reality going forward is Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that will never recover. Ukraine is holding out extremely well and poised to achieve an unconditional victory. It's victory comes at a price, but one that any free and independent nation prides itself of paying.

dirtyid 4y ago
>unconditional victory Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deadend for the foreseeable future even if they manage to rebuild, which is far from certain as RU can drag conflict out for long time. That's going to be increasingly obvious as war continues. TW won't be that lucky, reality is it's too small and close to PRC backyard to rebuild. PRC can ensure TW stays a subsistence society post war forever. And that's going to be the lesson / choice TW politicians will draw, they can look at integrated HK or free UKR (really, Yemen/Palestine) and decide.
- simplotek 4y ago
  I'm not going to go off on a tangent on a discussion on Taiwan, but I don't believe none of your assertions is grounded on reality. Ukraine is doing magnificently on the battlefield, specially given Russia planned their invasion to be a 3-day event with frontline soldiers packing parade uniforms and riot gear and Russian generals booking restaurants in Kiev in advance. To attest to Ukraine's prowess, Russia's ruling regime is now afraid their defeat spells the collapse of Russia and consequently it's fragmentation. In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine, not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU. There are countries who had a far less favourable postwar setting which rebounded quite well. If Taiwan has any lesson to take from Ukraine, that lesson is that fighting for its independence pays off.
  - eatonphil 4y ago
    > In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine Could you share any links on this? > not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU. It seems Ukraine is likely decades away from qualifying to join the EU. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-long-will-it-take-ukraine-join-eu-2023-02-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-long-will-it-take-u...
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    You're asserting feel good propaganda fantasy talking points, but no credible analysts see path to unconditional UKR victory and if history any judge, some sort of settlement where UKR likely end up as broken buffer state carved with balamced RU geopolitical interests in mind, i.e. territorial loss with some parts of west UKR having chance of EU integration. So far UKR maybe overperforming operationally (battle layer) but doesnt mean it's winning strategically. RU can afford to keep UKR as a prolonged frozen conflict, preventing UKR reconstruction and keeping her as broken buffer state which is still net strategic win for RU position, granted a pyrrhic one. UKR demographic loss alone makes future incredibly bleak, country HDI was shit before war for region while UKR refugees had unusual priveledge of settling in developing countries - most already said they have no plan to return. UKR will be stuck in demographic/conflict limbo for generations and there likely won't be any peaceful settlement conditions where it can rebuild without RU cooperation. TW lesson will be she can fight to prevent occupation but exist as a greatly reduced society i.e. not high income semi producers but low income pine apple farmers. And they may well still choose the latter.

dirtyid 4y ago

>unconditional victory Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deadend for the foreseeable future even if they manage to rebuild, which is far from certain as RU can drag conflict out for long time. That's going to be increasingly obvious as war continues. TW won't be that lucky, reality is it's too small and close to PRC backyard to rebuild. PRC can ensure TW stays a subsistence society post war forever. And that's going to be the lesson / choice TW politicians will draw, they can look at integrated HK or free UKR (really, Yemen/Palestine) and decide.

simplotek 4y ago
I'm not going to go off on a tangent on a discussion on Taiwan, but I don't believe none of your assertions is grounded on reality. Ukraine is doing magnificently on the battlefield, specially given Russia planned their invasion to be a 3-day event with frontline soldiers packing parade uniforms and riot gear and Russian generals booking restaurants in Kiev in advance. To attest to Ukraine's prowess, Russia's ruling regime is now afraid their defeat spells the collapse of Russia and consequently it's fragmentation. In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine, not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU. There are countries who had a far less favourable postwar setting which rebounded quite well. If Taiwan has any lesson to take from Ukraine, that lesson is that fighting for its independence pays off.
- eatonphil 4y ago
  > In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine Could you share any links on this? > not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU. It seems Ukraine is likely decades away from qualifying to join the EU. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-long-will-it-take-ukraine-join-eu-2023-02-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-long-will-it-take-u...
- dirtyid 4y ago
  You're asserting feel good propaganda fantasy talking points, but no credible analysts see path to unconditional UKR victory and if history any judge, some sort of settlement where UKR likely end up as broken buffer state carved with balamced RU geopolitical interests in mind, i.e. territorial loss with some parts of west UKR having chance of EU integration. So far UKR maybe overperforming operationally (battle layer) but doesnt mean it's winning strategically. RU can afford to keep UKR as a prolonged frozen conflict, preventing UKR reconstruction and keeping her as broken buffer state which is still net strategic win for RU position, granted a pyrrhic one. UKR demographic loss alone makes future incredibly bleak, country HDI was shit before war for region while UKR refugees had unusual priveledge of settling in developing countries - most already said they have no plan to return. UKR will be stuck in demographic/conflict limbo for generations and there likely won't be any peaceful settlement conditions where it can rebuild without RU cooperation. TW lesson will be she can fight to prevent occupation but exist as a greatly reduced society i.e. not high income semi producers but low income pine apple farmers. And they may well still choose the latter.