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> China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes We're watching warfare change right now. There are many paths to success for China, given enough attent

> China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes We're watching warfare change right now. There are many paths to success for China, given enough attention and focus. Just one: 100 million drones to deal with all the fixed defences, and then you arrive to negotiate once you've repeatedly overwhelmed the enemy for 6 months. We've spent the last few decades helping China build the biggest manufacturing engine in history, and Ukraine has shown us what "cheap and accurate" can do. No doubt in my mind that China will be able to innovate further once it has a very good reason to do so. If the West tries to copy this, surely it's mostly relying on chips produced in Taiwan? Give that 6 months, because I'm pretty sure China can restrict chip flow faster than the West can build backup capability. And once China owns that chip production it could easily result in 20 years (or indefinite) tech dominance. Sure, experts will be fleeing in droves but factories and supply chains don't just spring up overnight.

cm2187 4y ago
On drones, fair points but a missile is easy to hide. I suspect those chip factories would have been destroyed before China takes control of them. China’s leverage is more about denying access to those chips to the west.
- richardw 4y ago
  Outcomes aren't binary. You can burn a few factories and many will escape but the vast majority of humans will want to get on with life and rebuild the jobs they had. "It's been two years of no work and little food. China offers you a great salary to do what you did before the war. Do you A) Say no! B) Feed your kid and rebuild the factory."
runsWphotons 4y ago
I mean TSMC would likely burn everything to the ground. It seems more like no one would have the chips, until the US onshores the capability, which seems much less than 20 years away.
infamia 4y ago
China simply does not have the amphibious capabilities for an invasion let alone sustainment of an invading force. All the estimates I've looked at says they won't have that capability for around another ten years or so. A blockade favors the west and neighborhing friendly powers like Japan, since that would give it time to bring its mass to bear. All that talk about drones ignores that there are easy hard counters to drones (I.e. electronic warfare). They're not some unstoppable force. They're like any other weapon, they have their uses, but there are no silver bullets.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  PRC civilian (RO/RO) fleet used to augment landing is enough to bring 7 full Group Armies (300K+ troops) & their equipment in about 10 days. Go look at Shugarts estimates which is incomplete undercount while PRC increased auto export means sealift cap massively expanding. His outdated estimates = PRC can deliver every Brigade Combat Team in the U.S. Army in a little over 5 days for years now. It's been clear for years PLA hasn't pursued massive dedicated amphib capabilities because every RMB spent on purpose built sealift is one not spent on deterring USN. Building civilian RO/RO to military standards and employing civilian assets, which at PRC scale is massive, was always part of the plan. Blockade wouldn't favour west because PRC mass dramatically outweights what west can bring in theatre which itself is currently deemed unlikely to survive since it's contesting entire PRC land based hardware, i.e. everything PLA has. Like PRC doesn't even need mass drones as rocket force and glide munitions enough to hit every inch of TW from mainland positions.
  - infamia 4y ago
    The Chinese would have to pull off the most difficult military operation in the books (i.e., a contested amphibious landing into heavily defended shores), with a force that has never conducted a major operation of any kind, while using uncle's modifed freighter and dad's fishing vessel in place of built for purpose amphibious assault vessels. All in a sector who's commander has turned over 4-5 times (I forget the exact count at this point) in the past 24 months. It would take the miracle of a lifetime for the Chinese to be able to land such a force let alone sustain such an effort if Taiwan is paying any attention at all. I don't know of any successful amphibious landing in circumstances anywhere near that challenging. Unless China can catch Taiwan asleep at the switch, their loses would be catastrophic. Blockade favors the west because they only need enough mass for denial of area operations. That center of mass is growing as we speak with Japan arming up and larger US forces in the Philippines and Japan. This includes new Marine litorral forces built specifically for the Asian theater and the new breed of warfare we're seeing in some of the Russian/Ukraine War. China imports most of it's food and oil. It is difficult to see how their economy can sustain a blockade and sanctions, especially considering their debt crisis that will take 10 years or more to unwind the way China is currently handling things. In a prolonged comflict, their losses would be horrendous in both human, material, and capital terms. Mass drone attacks are whiteboard fantasies with present day capabilities. Why even bring them up? I would point out that Taiwan also has plenty air, surface, and anti-ship missles. This includes long range, supersonic surface to surface cruise missles. While traditionally Taiwan has opted for for area denial operations that makes them a very unappealing target, they now have the ability to strike China's mainland at will, and there is little China can do about it. The way Ukraine (and the West) is taking it to Russia I would imagine would give Xi pause. I would think twice if I were him, assuming the west maintains their support. From a geopolitical perspective, after Russia, China is the biggest potential loser in the Ukrainian War. The west and partners in the East are revving up their defense industrial capacity and arming up in a big way. If the Ukrainian war keeps going the way it is, the Russians will be far less help if they're able to provide any significant help at all. China can't take on the entire free world by themselves without major help.

cm2187 4y ago

On drones, fair points but a missile is easy to hide. I suspect those chip factories would have been destroyed before China takes control of them. China’s leverage is more about denying access to those chips to the west.

richardw 4y ago
Outcomes aren't binary. You can burn a few factories and many will escape but the vast majority of humans will want to get on with life and rebuild the jobs they had. "It's been two years of no work and little food. China offers you a great salary to do what you did before the war. Do you A) Say no! B) Feed your kid and rebuild the factory."

runsWphotons 4y ago

I mean TSMC would likely burn everything to the ground. It seems more like no one would have the chips, until the US onshores the capability, which seems much less than 20 years away.

infamia 4y ago

China simply does not have the amphibious capabilities for an invasion let alone sustainment of an invading force. All the estimates I've looked at says they won't have that capability for around another ten years or so. A blockade favors the west and neighborhing friendly powers like Japan, since that would give it time to bring its mass to bear. All that talk about drones ignores that there are easy hard counters to drones (I.e. electronic warfare). They're not some unstoppable force. They're like any other weapon, they have their uses, but there are no silver bullets.

dirtyid 4y ago
PRC civilian (RO/RO) fleet used to augment landing is enough to bring 7 full Group Armies (300K+ troops) & their equipment in about 10 days. Go look at Shugarts estimates which is incomplete undercount while PRC increased auto export means sealift cap massively expanding. His outdated estimates = PRC can deliver every Brigade Combat Team in the U.S. Army in a little over 5 days for years now. It's been clear for years PLA hasn't pursued massive dedicated amphib capabilities because every RMB spent on purpose built sealift is one not spent on deterring USN. Building civilian RO/RO to military standards and employing civilian assets, which at PRC scale is massive, was always part of the plan. Blockade wouldn't favour west because PRC mass dramatically outweights what west can bring in theatre which itself is currently deemed unlikely to survive since it's contesting entire PRC land based hardware, i.e. everything PLA has. Like PRC doesn't even need mass drones as rocket force and glide munitions enough to hit every inch of TW from mainland positions.
- infamia 4y ago
  The Chinese would have to pull off the most difficult military operation in the books (i.e., a contested amphibious landing into heavily defended shores), with a force that has never conducted a major operation of any kind, while using uncle's modifed freighter and dad's fishing vessel in place of built for purpose amphibious assault vessels. All in a sector who's commander has turned over 4-5 times (I forget the exact count at this point) in the past 24 months. It would take the miracle of a lifetime for the Chinese to be able to land such a force let alone sustain such an effort if Taiwan is paying any attention at all. I don't know of any successful amphibious landing in circumstances anywhere near that challenging. Unless China can catch Taiwan asleep at the switch, their loses would be catastrophic. Blockade favors the west because they only need enough mass for denial of area operations. That center of mass is growing as we speak with Japan arming up and larger US forces in the Philippines and Japan. This includes new Marine litorral forces built specifically for the Asian theater and the new breed of warfare we're seeing in some of the Russian/Ukraine War. China imports most of it's food and oil. It is difficult to see how their economy can sustain a blockade and sanctions, especially considering their debt crisis that will take 10 years or more to unwind the way China is currently handling things. In a prolonged comflict, their losses would be horrendous in both human, material, and capital terms. Mass drone attacks are whiteboard fantasies with present day capabilities. Why even bring them up? I would point out that Taiwan also has plenty air, surface, and anti-ship missles. This includes long range, supersonic surface to surface cruise missles. While traditionally Taiwan has opted for for area denial operations that makes them a very unappealing target, they now have the ability to strike China's mainland at will, and there is little China can do about it. The way Ukraine (and the West) is taking it to Russia I would imagine would give Xi pause. I would think twice if I were him, assuming the west maintains their support. From a geopolitical perspective, after Russia, China is the biggest potential loser in the Ukrainian War. The west and partners in the East are revving up their defense industrial capacity and arming up in a big way. If the Ukrainian war keeps going the way it is, the Russians will be far less help if they're able to provide any significant help at all. China can't take on the entire free world by themselves without major help.