5 ms·

The Bay Area isn’t remotely “packed in.” It’s good that the state of California is starting to take steps to prevent its current inhabitants from pulling the la

The Bay Area isn’t remotely “packed in.” It’s good that the state of California is starting to take steps to prevent its current inhabitants from pulling the ladder up behind them.

khazhoux 4y ago
There’s not an acre of open land between San Jose and SF that doesn’t have a building structure on it. Compare with most other US states where land is plentiful and they could use the economic boost of additional residents.
- clpm4j 4y ago
  This is not even close to accurate unless you meant to say private open land.
  - khazhoux 4y ago
    As opposed to… public parks and preserves? I guess I don’t follow your point.
    - clpm4j 4y ago
      My point was just that the peninsula is not very dense at all - tons of open land and space.
- jdminhbg 4y ago
  > There’s not an acre of open land between San Jose and SF that doesn’t have a building structure on it. Fortunately we have the technology to tear down crappy post-war single family homes and replace them with multi-unit buildings.
  - tekknik 4y ago
    not everybody wants to live in a multi-tenant structure. some of us want miles between us and our neighbors.
    - 8note 4y ago
      Taxes should generally handle that to make sure people don't stay in such places where lots of people want to live. If you're wanting that much space between neighbors in a high populations spot, that should be like $1M/y in property taxes
      - tekknik 4y ago
        > should be like $1M/y in property taxes why? because you want to be a dictator and force people to live how you want / like to live?
        benja810 4y ago
        I believe GP was describing the [Land Value Tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax). The idea being that a government invests in the infrastructure that improves the value of the land and because it's _public_ money funding those improvements, the property taxes should reflect the value provided. No one would be forcing people to live a certain way, just forcing them to either pay for the privilege of living in an area that was granted public funding for improved infrastructure, or live somewhere else that received less public investment. As a thought experiment, I find it easiest to understand the arguments for the Land Value Tax if you imagine a local government building a new subway line. Obviously, the existing homes around the new stops would have their property values increased. After all, many commute times were just cut in half! The local government is interested in more people living near those lines, more people == more tax revenue after all. If the local government had a Land Value Tax implemented, the infrastructure improvements they made to the area would automatically be included in the calculation for the taxes owed by the existing homeowners near the new subway stops. $1M/yr may sound insane, and it would be for a single-family home, but because of the new subway line, local developers are lining up to purchase the homes around that line in order to build new higher-density homes. The existing homeowners can either choose to pay the high tax and enjoy their short commute paid for by other taxpayers, or sell at a nice profit to developers. New higher-density homes get built, more taxpayers move in, the city can now build more infrastructure to improve the city!
- jacob171714 4y ago
  You are correct that all the easily buildable land is filled in, however it is mostly with suburb. San Jose is like 94% single family homes although that likely has decreased slightly since that statistic came out.
- danielmarkbruce 4y ago
  If you go east there is a lot of open land.
  - wyclif 4y ago
    I have a question that is tangentially related to the OP, but not based on the irrationality of the housing market. What I want to know is: given the way things are today, how do you identify and locate neighbourhoods, towns, and cities where housing will appreciate in value the most? IOW, what is the data you need to make a good "buy low, sell high" decision?
    - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
      Demand: Interest rates(good luck predicting that) Median income(predictable) School districts (good schools attract people who care about that... as you can imagine that's a spiral one way or the other) Supply: Current inventory Potential inventory
      - nemonemo 4y ago
        One more factor in the demand side: population. IMO it is hard to predict.
        danielmarkbruce 4y ago
        For a given area, population isn't really a demand side thing - it's the intersection of demand and supply.
  - krferriter 4y ago
    There's also a lot of open area in the yards and air 10-30ft above single-family homes. There are lot of property owners who'd be willing to demolish the SFH on their lot and build a lowrise multi-unit building with 2-6 units, and the only thing stopping them is that it is illegal to do this.
bumby 4y ago
Tbf, SF is listed as the second highest population density among non-metro areas, behind NYC (according to Wikipedia)
- jacob171714 4y ago
  Sf is dense but SF is and has been for 70 years about 800k people. The bay area overall is around 7.7 million and the greater bay area is 10 million. Places like San Jose which take up a lot of the bay area are almost all suburb. That means even with long commutes to those high paying jobs houses are still 2+ million.
  - dredmorbius 4y ago
    Not quite that many or long, though reasonably close. SF hit 5000k in the 1920 census (506,676), 634k in 1930 and 1940, 775k in 1950k, which was its peak until the 2000 census, at 776k. The first census besting 800k was 2010, and as of 2020, 873k. Wikipedia shows the 2021 population as 815,201, a loss of 58,764 (6.72%). I'd heard the population had dropped, but that's a pretty significant town's worth of exits. The city of San Rafael in Marin Country, for example had 61,271 residents --- SF lost very nearly that. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco>
aosmith 4y ago
You are correct but the NIMBYs will stop at nothing to prevent new housing because they think it will make their homes go down in value. The market for SFHs is completely different from the market for MFHs / apartments.

The Bay Area isn’t remotely “packed in.” It’s good that the state of California is starting to take steps to prevent its current inhabitants from pulling the ladder up behind them.

khazhoux 4y ago

There’s not an acre of open land between San Jose and SF that doesn’t have a building structure on it. Compare with most other US states where land is plentiful and they could use the economic boost of additional residents.

clpm4j 4y ago
This is not even close to accurate unless you meant to say private open land.
- khazhoux 4y ago
  As opposed to… public parks and preserves? I guess I don’t follow your point.
  - clpm4j 4y ago
    My point was just that the peninsula is not very dense at all - tons of open land and space.
jdminhbg 4y ago
> There’s not an acre of open land between San Jose and SF that doesn’t have a building structure on it. Fortunately we have the technology to tear down crappy post-war single family homes and replace them with multi-unit buildings.
- tekknik 4y ago
  not everybody wants to live in a multi-tenant structure. some of us want miles between us and our neighbors.
  - 8note 4y ago
    Taxes should generally handle that to make sure people don't stay in such places where lots of people want to live. If you're wanting that much space between neighbors in a high populations spot, that should be like $1M/y in property taxes
    - tekknik 4y ago
      > should be like $1M/y in property taxes why? because you want to be a dictator and force people to live how you want / like to live?
      - benja810 4y ago
        I believe GP was describing the [Land Value Tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax). The idea being that a government invests in the infrastructure that improves the value of the land and because it's _public_ money funding those improvements, the property taxes should reflect the value provided. No one would be forcing people to live a certain way, just forcing them to either pay for the privilege of living in an area that was granted public funding for improved infrastructure, or live somewhere else that received less public investment. As a thought experiment, I find it easiest to understand the arguments for the Land Value Tax if you imagine a local government building a new subway line. Obviously, the existing homes around the new stops would have their property values increased. After all, many commute times were just cut in half! The local government is interested in more people living near those lines, more people == more tax revenue after all. If the local government had a Land Value Tax implemented, the infrastructure improvements they made to the area would automatically be included in the calculation for the taxes owed by the existing homeowners near the new subway stops. $1M/yr may sound insane, and it would be for a single-family home, but because of the new subway line, local developers are lining up to purchase the homes around that line in order to build new higher-density homes. The existing homeowners can either choose to pay the high tax and enjoy their short commute paid for by other taxpayers, or sell at a nice profit to developers. New higher-density homes get built, more taxpayers move in, the city can now build more infrastructure to improve the city!
jacob171714 4y ago
You are correct that all the easily buildable land is filled in, however it is mostly with suburb. San Jose is like 94% single family homes although that likely has decreased slightly since that statistic came out.
danielmarkbruce 4y ago
If you go east there is a lot of open land.
- wyclif 4y ago
  I have a question that is tangentially related to the OP, but not based on the irrationality of the housing market. What I want to know is: given the way things are today, how do you identify and locate neighbourhoods, towns, and cities where housing will appreciate in value the most? IOW, what is the data you need to make a good "buy low, sell high" decision?
  - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
    Demand: Interest rates(good luck predicting that) Median income(predictable) School districts (good schools attract people who care about that... as you can imagine that's a spiral one way or the other) Supply: Current inventory Potential inventory
    - nemonemo 4y ago
      One more factor in the demand side: population. IMO it is hard to predict.
      - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
        For a given area, population isn't really a demand side thing - it's the intersection of demand and supply.
- krferriter 4y ago
  There's also a lot of open area in the yards and air 10-30ft above single-family homes. There are lot of property owners who'd be willing to demolish the SFH on their lot and build a lowrise multi-unit building with 2-6 units, and the only thing stopping them is that it is illegal to do this.

bumby 4y ago

Tbf, SF is listed as the second highest population density among non-metro areas, behind NYC (according to Wikipedia)

jacob171714 4y ago
Sf is dense but SF is and has been for 70 years about 800k people. The bay area overall is around 7.7 million and the greater bay area is 10 million. Places like San Jose which take up a lot of the bay area are almost all suburb. That means even with long commutes to those high paying jobs houses are still 2+ million.
- dredmorbius 4y ago
  Not quite that many or long, though reasonably close. SF hit 5000k in the 1920 census (506,676), 634k in 1930 and 1940, 775k in 1950k, which was its peak until the 2000 census, at 776k. The first census besting 800k was 2010, and as of 2020, 873k. Wikipedia shows the 2021 population as 815,201, a loss of 58,764 (6.72%). I'd heard the population had dropped, but that's a pretty significant town's worth of exits. The city of San Rafael in Marin Country, for example had 61,271 residents --- SF lost very nearly that. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco>

aosmith 4y ago

You are correct but the NIMBYs will stop at nothing to prevent new housing because they think it will make their homes go down in value. The market for SFHs is completely different from the market for MFHs / apartments.