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Every time I see this I have to laugh. If you live in Tokyo, I'd love to hear your anecdotal experience. I have stayed and visited japan for the last 35 years,

by kurthr 4y ago

Every time I see this I have to laugh. If you live in Tokyo, I'd love to hear your anecdotal experience. I have stayed and visited japan for the last 35 years, and find all of the "Tokyo is so affordable and buildable" is hilarious. The breathless articles I read about it leave out fundamental aspects (the incredible density, the absolute destruction 70 years ago, the corruption [especially in Shinjuku], the size of the "livable apartments", the need to rebuild anything from before 1980 for earthquake safety, that youth population falling by half, the stagnation of wages), and the fact that most people who can leave Tokyo to raise children do (even if it means commuting 2hrs each way every day on a train). This just doesn't match anywhere in the US or frankly almost anywhere else in the world. I know 2 people who actually still live in Tokyo. One is a 28 year old single foreigner, and the other is stuck in a 100 year mortgage with their extended family. All the rest moved.

arcticbull 4y ago
> and the fact that most people who can leave Tokyo to raise children do (even if it means commuting 2hrs each way every day on a train). Is that why the population is 14M - 34M in the metro? Bigger than every American city and about the size of all of Canada combined? They just can't get out to where it should by all accounts be cheaper? Is there a fence or something?
- kurthr 4y ago
  It takes too long to get there by train. Shinkansen is too expensive for daily commuting (for normal people). Two hours each way sleeping on a commuter train is about the limit of what people can tolerate. I love Tokyo and the rest of Japan. It's amazing, but if you put any other culture in Tokyo, it would be unlivable.
goosedragons 4y ago
So why is the population of Tokyo steadily increasing while the population of Japan overall is decreasing? Is it all just foreigners explaining 2+% growth rate in recent years despite them making up less than 3% of the cities total population? Or are the people stuck in 100 year mortgages just having lots more kids than everybody else?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- kurthr 4y ago
  The pricing is set by the marginal housing. Marginal housing is older tiny apartments that would be considered deathtraps in the US or Europe. Those older 7 story buildings are torn down and replaced with 30+ story apartments (in less corrupt ways than in the past at densities that most other countries would consider too high) which are unaffordable to the people who are forced to leave and commute long distances to newer/safer, but similarly high density housing. Because ALL of the jobs are in Tokyo (or Osaka, or Fukuoka). Note that Chiba city is growing faster than Tokyo and it's a suburb (same with Tsukuba)! Shin-Yokohama is getting too expensive.
  - goosedragons 4y ago
    Meanwhile in western countries the prices go up for no reason! That 30 year old house? It's worth double what it was 10 years ago! And now it's a 30 year old house instead of a 20 year old house. This is reality where I grew up. Most of my peers are priced out too. And I grew up out of the city centre...
    - kurthr 4y ago
      And interest rates went from 20% in 1980 to 2% in 2021. Like fashion bags and NFTs they were financialized. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Seen China and the massive building there, but it didn't lower prices... they're higher than SF or NY! It's not just housing. Look at bare land or abandoned buildings in CA. Those also grew by similar amounts or even more! Why develop it when it goes up in value? Why not own multiple empty homes when they "only" go up in price. Well, welcome to higher interest rates and likely a less deflationary world (deglobalization) with non-wage inflation that prevents the Fed put.
      - arcticbull 4y ago
        Interest rates don’t really matter to housing prices when supply and demand are at equilibrium. It may shift that equilibrium point but Japan has had the same exact interest rate policy as the US over the same time period but the price of a house in Japan hasn’t increased in nominal terms since 1990. Everything you point out isn’t driven by interest rates but instead by artificial supply constraints on housing.
cjmb 4y ago
Agreed. Don't forget the massive implosion of the real estate market 30 years ago that turned a whole generation off of buying property and bankrupted vast swathes of the population. Said "breathless articles" usually just grab some "rate of price increase" chart benchmarked to the most severe recession in recent decades and start celebrating just because Tokyo also has good housing policy. But in trying to advocate for good policy elsewhere, they just end up championing national recession, international stagnation, depressed wage growth, and more. see charts & data etc here: https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/japans-housing-crisis-what-the-yimbys-dont-understand https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/japans-housing-crisis-...
thequadehunter 4y ago
So Tokyo isn't affordable and livable because it's dense? I lived in Japan so I understand where you're coming from...but the fact that "fleeters" are even a thing should tell you they are doing something right with housing prices. Can you imagine an American person in Seattle deciding to just work 30 hours at a conbini and being able to rent a studio? A couple things: 1. Sure, Tokyo is dense and can be kinda soul crushing...but the option of having a roof even at incredibly low income is better than none. 2. Zoning to allow residential to be on top of business, and allowing smaller apartments and 2 very obvious things that make it literally "easier to build" in Japan than the US. This isn't even just a Tokyo thing. When I lived in a pretty nice suburb in Okinawa a lot of my friends were paying like 300-400$ usd for rent, and I rarely ever saw homeless people. I live in Honolulu now and there's homeless everywhere and good luck finding any studio under $1300. There's a pretty obvious difference.
- kurthr 4y ago
  I agree that there's gotta be a place to live (that doesn't require a 1hr car drive or a multi-hour commute) to support city living at reasonable working wage and that is not possible in most rapidly urbanizing/gentrifying areas of the US (it is possible in Detroit or even NY to some extent). That probably means something of a couple hundred ft2, not 1000. However, the reasons for homelessness in Hawaii vs Tokyo (I've actually seen some in the last 5 years!) has a lot to do with weather, social acceptance, and income from panhandling (which doesn't happen in Tokyo). Also, a lot of the homeless I see outside (not the hidden homeless who have one or more jobs) in the US have problems that would lead to incarceration in Japan (drug use, untreated mental illness). At the same time I've known older people in Japan who would be in memory care in the US who were helped by the community to remain living in their houses in Japan. It is much safer in Japan, but at the same time any activity that makes it feel less safe is much more likely to be "policed".
simonebrunozzi 4y ago
As a side note, I'd love to read anything you've written about Tokyo, or Japan in general. Could you share blog posts or such, if there's any? Otherwise, simone.brunozzi at gmail if you're willing to :)

by kurthr 4y ago

arcticbull 4y ago

> and the fact that most people who can leave Tokyo to raise children do (even if it means commuting 2hrs each way every day on a train). Is that why the population is 14M - 34M in the metro? Bigger than every American city and about the size of all of Canada combined? They just can't get out to where it should by all accounts be cheaper? Is there a fence or something?

kurthr 4y ago
It takes too long to get there by train. Shinkansen is too expensive for daily commuting (for normal people). Two hours each way sleeping on a commuter train is about the limit of what people can tolerate. I love Tokyo and the rest of Japan. It's amazing, but if you put any other culture in Tokyo, it would be unlivable.

goosedragons 4y ago

So why is the population of Tokyo steadily increasing while the population of Japan overall is decreasing? Is it all just foreigners explaining 2+% growth rate in recent years despite them making up less than 3% of the cities total population? Or are the people stuck in 100 year mortgages just having lots more kids than everybody else?

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
kurthr 4y ago
The pricing is set by the marginal housing. Marginal housing is older tiny apartments that would be considered deathtraps in the US or Europe. Those older 7 story buildings are torn down and replaced with 30+ story apartments (in less corrupt ways than in the past at densities that most other countries would consider too high) which are unaffordable to the people who are forced to leave and commute long distances to newer/safer, but similarly high density housing. Because ALL of the jobs are in Tokyo (or Osaka, or Fukuoka). Note that Chiba city is growing faster than Tokyo and it's a suburb (same with Tsukuba)! Shin-Yokohama is getting too expensive.
- goosedragons 4y ago
  Meanwhile in western countries the prices go up for no reason! That 30 year old house? It's worth double what it was 10 years ago! And now it's a 30 year old house instead of a 20 year old house. This is reality where I grew up. Most of my peers are priced out too. And I grew up out of the city centre...
  - kurthr 4y ago
    And interest rates went from 20% in 1980 to 2% in 2021. Like fashion bags and NFTs they were financialized. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Seen China and the massive building there, but it didn't lower prices... they're higher than SF or NY! It's not just housing. Look at bare land or abandoned buildings in CA. Those also grew by similar amounts or even more! Why develop it when it goes up in value? Why not own multiple empty homes when they "only" go up in price. Well, welcome to higher interest rates and likely a less deflationary world (deglobalization) with non-wage inflation that prevents the Fed put.
    - arcticbull 4y ago
      Interest rates don’t really matter to housing prices when supply and demand are at equilibrium. It may shift that equilibrium point but Japan has had the same exact interest rate policy as the US over the same time period but the price of a house in Japan hasn’t increased in nominal terms since 1990. Everything you point out isn’t driven by interest rates but instead by artificial supply constraints on housing.

cjmb 4y ago

Agreed. Don't forget the massive implosion of the real estate market 30 years ago that turned a whole generation off of buying property and bankrupted vast swathes of the population. Said "breathless articles" usually just grab some "rate of price increase" chart benchmarked to the most severe recession in recent decades and start celebrating just because Tokyo also has good housing policy. But in trying to advocate for good policy elsewhere, they just end up championing national recession, international stagnation, depressed wage growth, and more. see charts & data etc here: https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/japans-housing-crisis-what-the-yimbys-dont-understand https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/japans-housing-crisis-...

thequadehunter 4y ago

So Tokyo isn't affordable and livable because it's dense? I lived in Japan so I understand where you're coming from...but the fact that "fleeters" are even a thing should tell you they are doing something right with housing prices. Can you imagine an American person in Seattle deciding to just work 30 hours at a conbini and being able to rent a studio? A couple things: 1. Sure, Tokyo is dense and can be kinda soul crushing...but the option of having a roof even at incredibly low income is better than none. 2. Zoning to allow residential to be on top of business, and allowing smaller apartments and 2 very obvious things that make it literally "easier to build" in Japan than the US. This isn't even just a Tokyo thing. When I lived in a pretty nice suburb in Okinawa a lot of my friends were paying like 300-400$ usd for rent, and I rarely ever saw homeless people. I live in Honolulu now and there's homeless everywhere and good luck finding any studio under $1300. There's a pretty obvious difference.

kurthr 4y ago
I agree that there's gotta be a place to live (that doesn't require a 1hr car drive or a multi-hour commute) to support city living at reasonable working wage and that is not possible in most rapidly urbanizing/gentrifying areas of the US (it is possible in Detroit or even NY to some extent). That probably means something of a couple hundred ft2, not 1000. However, the reasons for homelessness in Hawaii vs Tokyo (I've actually seen some in the last 5 years!) has a lot to do with weather, social acceptance, and income from panhandling (which doesn't happen in Tokyo). Also, a lot of the homeless I see outside (not the hidden homeless who have one or more jobs) in the US have problems that would lead to incarceration in Japan (drug use, untreated mental illness). At the same time I've known older people in Japan who would be in memory care in the US who were helped by the community to remain living in their houses in Japan. It is much safer in Japan, but at the same time any activity that makes it feel less safe is much more likely to be "policed".

simonebrunozzi 4y ago

As a side note, I'd love to read anything you've written about Tokyo, or Japan in general. Could you share blog posts or such, if there's any? Otherwise, simone.brunozzi at gmail if you're willing to :)