3 ms·
> we have a very good chance of avoiding a recession Not sure that's the case, I work in RV, which is a leading indicator for recession and recovery. RV volume
by lordfrito 4y ago
> we have a very good chance of avoiding a recession
Not sure that's the case, I work in RV, which is a leading indicator for recession and recovery. RV volumes have been getting hammered for the last 8 months. OEM mfg numbers are down over 50% year on year. [1] Sure it's just one small segment of the overall economy, but things are getting strange out there.
[1] https://rv-pro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Shipments2.png https://rv-pro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Shipments2.png
- tracerbulletx 4y agoYou really think that it's not just that the RV surge was another COVID phenomenon? The same thing is happening with the bike market.
- lordfrito 4y agoYou are correct that COVID was responsible for a huge boom in RV. In fact, 2021 was biggest year ever for RV. The numbers speak for themselves. [1] However volumes this year are projected to be in the low 300k range. [2] Also these projections seem to be getting revised lower every month. These are numbers the industry hasn't seen since 2014. So we're not returning to pre-COVID levels (record shipments in 500k range in 2017 and 2018). The industry is being cut in half (at least) right now. And the drop is predicted to be long (we're already 6 months in, and the articles are saying this will last until at least the end of 2023). There's something deeper going on here. I think that something deeper is a recession. Not saying I have all the answers. But from the angle I'm sitting at this looks a lot like the decline seen after the housing bubble and 2008 crisis. YMMV [1] https://www.rvia.org/historical-rv-data https://www.rvia.org/historical-rv-data [2] https://www.rvia.org/rv-roadsigns-quarterly-forecast https://www.rvia.org/rv-roadsigns-quarterly-forecast