My prediction is that governments are going to figure out that they have a stark choice ahead of them, because most people simply don't want to have a lot of ki

My prediction is that governments are going to figure out that they have a stark choice ahead of them, because most people simply don't want to have a lot of kids, and because of this, there is simply no way to get the birthrate to replacement level by offering tax breaks and other such incentives. Couples will simply take the tax breaks for 1-2 kids (sometimes 3, in rare cases) when they can, and that's it. When averaged across the whole society, which includes couples who don't have kids (because they can't, or don't want to), and people who never find a partner they want to have kids with, the birthrate will simply be too low. So governments will find themselves faced with a choice: either force people to have more children, or do something different. Forcing citizens to have kids isn't going to work, even in places like China, much less democracies. So the solution will be to outsource reproduction to government-run factories, where children will be artificially conceived, and then raised in institutions.