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I agree with most of this, but birth rates are not relevant. Note that Japan has had a very low fertility rate for years but still has folks for all those make-

I agree with most of this, but birth rates are not relevant. Note that Japan has had a very low fertility rate for years but still has folks for all those make-work jobs. In the U.S. what changed over the past 5 years is legal immigration: it was drastically cut and has not been restored. So as citizens and existing long-term residents pursue better jobs or time at home, there are far fewer new residents eager for lower paying jobs. If you talk to businesses that have traditionally employed these newly arrived folks—food service, agriculture, construction, childcare, etc—they will be crystal clear about the impact they are seeing. Places with desirable standards of living don’t need replacement level births. They just need the right levels of immigration. People will come, ready to work on day one.

ralph84 4y ago
The decline in legal immigration is almost entirely due to USCIS’s drastically decreased productivity during covid. Illegal immigration is still at all-time highs in the US. Why only consider legal immigration? Those industries you mentioned are all big employers of illegal immigrants.
gadders 4y ago
Immigration is a method of wage suppression. The issue is that the businesses don't want to cut into their profits to raise wages to attract native/local workers.
- red-iron-pine 4y ago
  Which is why most of your contractors, or kitchen staffs, in the US are Hispanic.
- SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
  The government can of course "attract native/local workers" and curb this immigration via means such as raising the minimum wage. When the state doesn't want to, it means that the state and business are working together on this against such native workers. It's of course never as simple as "Immigration is this". You might as well say that "low minimum wage" is the sole root cause.
- snowwrestler 4y ago
  Immigration can be used to suppress wages, if there are way more workers than jobs. The other end of that balance produces high inflation, as employers have to continuously raise wages to recruit from competitors, and continuously raise prices to cover increasing wage expense.
  - gadders 4y ago
    Maybe a rule that says "Companies can only hire non-native workers if their profit is below XX%." (I realise this is a game-able statistic so would need to be a bit more complicated than that). Of course, the other option that companies can take is to increase productivity by investing in automation, training etc so each worker provides more output to justify their higher cost.
- HDThoreaun 4y ago
  The issue is people aren't willing to pay for services when they have to employ native workers with high salary expectations. If childcare can't find cheap workers the price will go up and many people will decide to quit and raise their kids themselves.
ChatGTP 4y ago
Yes, but in Japan a lot of people doing the pointless jobs are old. As they pass away, there will be less need for the pointless jobs but there is no one to replace the old people who are also doing the important jobs like farming, which is not highly automated, so there is little chance Japan is on the brink of any real employment crisis. If anything more and more jobs are coming online everyday, with less people to fill them. Sometimes I know we worry about AI taking our jobs but I’m wondering if we will be able to survive without it ?

ralph84 4y ago

The decline in legal immigration is almost entirely due to USCIS’s drastically decreased productivity during covid. Illegal immigration is still at all-time highs in the US. Why only consider legal immigration? Those industries you mentioned are all big employers of illegal immigrants.

gadders 4y ago

Immigration is a method of wage suppression. The issue is that the businesses don't want to cut into their profits to raise wages to attract native/local workers.

red-iron-pine 4y ago
Which is why most of your contractors, or kitchen staffs, in the US are Hispanic.
SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
The government can of course "attract native/local workers" and curb this immigration via means such as raising the minimum wage. When the state doesn't want to, it means that the state and business are working together on this against such native workers. It's of course never as simple as "Immigration is this". You might as well say that "low minimum wage" is the sole root cause.
snowwrestler 4y ago
Immigration can be used to suppress wages, if there are way more workers than jobs. The other end of that balance produces high inflation, as employers have to continuously raise wages to recruit from competitors, and continuously raise prices to cover increasing wage expense.
- gadders 4y ago
  Maybe a rule that says "Companies can only hire non-native workers if their profit is below XX%." (I realise this is a game-able statistic so would need to be a bit more complicated than that). Of course, the other option that companies can take is to increase productivity by investing in automation, training etc so each worker provides more output to justify their higher cost.
HDThoreaun 4y ago
The issue is people aren't willing to pay for services when they have to employ native workers with high salary expectations. If childcare can't find cheap workers the price will go up and many people will decide to quit and raise their kids themselves.

ChatGTP 4y ago

Yes, but in Japan a lot of people doing the pointless jobs are old. As they pass away, there will be less need for the pointless jobs but there is no one to replace the old people who are also doing the important jobs like farming, which is not highly automated, so there is little chance Japan is on the brink of any real employment crisis. If anything more and more jobs are coming online everyday, with less people to fill them. Sometimes I know we worry about AI taking our jobs but I’m wondering if we will be able to survive without it ?