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> Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. > We know inflation should start decreasing wi
by endisneigh 4y ago
> Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass.
> We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so
Indeed
- mkl95 4y agoI sort of trust the ECB, but I won't be shocked if they miss their targets.
- eftychis 4y agoI trust the ECB to miss their targets. It is part of the job description setup. You are trying to control a chaotic system with one knob and you have to follow a manual that gets rewritten with past learnings: a) if the issue reoccurs, the learnings are ineffective b) if the issue is new, how can you tell how to move the knob without pissing a lot of people and losing your job. It is a lose-lose game.
- WeylandYutani 4y agoThe ECB problem is that they have to run a collective of wildly varying economies. What's good for the Netherlands would destroy Italy. The genius solution that they came up with is transfering billions of taxpayer money from the North to the South- which is not very popular among voters.
- drexlspivey 4y agoThey have two knobs, setting interest rates and their balance sheet
- eftychis 4y agohttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/art01_eb201504.en.pd https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/art01_eb201504.en.pd The balance sheet is used to direct effective interest rates intramarket -- not a separate knob.
- midasuni 4y agoInflation is looking at the previous 12 months. We know that inflation in the last few months was lower than that nearly a year ago, thus for inflation not to fall would require it to balloon in the next few months, which seems very unlikely.