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My steelman of what you're saying is that "this time it's different" because this will be a much bigger change than the normal yearly loss of 2-4% of all jobs.

My steelman of what you're saying is that "this time it's different" because this will be a much bigger change than the normal yearly loss of 2-4% of all jobs. I'd add that it's different in that it will hit us college educated professionals who are not at all used to this, instead of the usual blue collar industries. We as a group are not ready and will scream very very loudly if/when this happens :) It's important to remember that a society consumes as much as it produces. This is how "rich" it is in aggregate. And job losses like this come from being able to produce as much as before with fewer people. So even if no one finds a new job, the society is as rich as before. All experience is that those losing their jobs find/create new ones after an adjustment period. Maybe this adjustment period will be longer, but it will clear in time. Unless, of course, Eliezer is right and AI kills us all.

PeterisP 4y ago
I think that the visible impact will also be different because it not only matters how many people suffer but what types of people suffer. When the bad stuff happens to mostly disenfranchised poor people, they can (and will) push for change by e.g. protest votes for populists that promise to break the status quo and turn back time (and, to be clear, I'm not talking about the USA here - this is a global phenomenon), but that won't effectively advance their interests, as that simply can't be done even if the populists both get power and try to keep their promises. On the other hand, when/if the same suffering happens to "semi-elites" with social capital and connections, they will raise noise in media and try to use the government establishment to "do something", and while it also might be ineffective, at least the appearance of governments needing to take action and help the adjustment will be much more significant than for the blue collar troubles.

PeterisP 4y ago

I think that the visible impact will also be different because it not only matters how many people suffer but what types of people suffer. When the bad stuff happens to mostly disenfranchised poor people, they can (and will) push for change by e.g. protest votes for populists that promise to break the status quo and turn back time (and, to be clear, I'm not talking about the USA here - this is a global phenomenon), but that won't effectively advance their interests, as that simply can't be done even if the populists both get power and try to keep their promises. On the other hand, when/if the same suffering happens to "semi-elites" with social capital and connections, they will raise noise in media and try to use the government establishment to "do something", and while it also might be ineffective, at least the appearance of governments needing to take action and help the adjustment will be much more significant than for the blue collar troubles.