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>surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support As is the standard playbook of dictator/authoritarian apologism, you completely reverse

by xoa 4y ago

>surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support As is the standard playbook of dictator/authoritarian apologism, you completely reverse causality here and deny non-authoritarian countries self-determination. The US isn't "executing a strategy" or "surrounding [Russia/China]", it's that Russia and China are engaging in terrifying behavior, attacking and undermining their surrounding countries, promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative, making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty with their "spheres of influence" and China's ludicrous ocean claims, and on and on. And as a direct result their neighbors are banging on the door to get into Western security agreements they see as being able to defend them! NATO was falling apart. European military capability has massively decayed. Much of Europe was completely content to make occasional noises but otherwise pursue economic integration above all else. What has changed everything has been Russia and China's actions. Taking that and reversing it into a "woe is me why is everyone so mean" story is gross. >While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that situation from the perspective of a hypothetical Chinese military planner. A destabilised Russia would potentially have a colour revolution leading to a US encirclement on 3 compass points. China would therefore have no choice but to support the war effort against Ukraine. Here's an alternative thought: Russia just fucking LEAVES UKRAINE. Stops committing mass murder, rape, genocide, child abduction, theft, purposeful destruction of civilian infrastructure, and war crimes in general. That China NOT invade an independent democratic country like Taiwan. That they stick to international treaties and norms and focus on making themselves rich and happy. That ever occur to you? Apparently not. Hopefully "Chinese military planners" aren't quite so evil and blind but of course in dictatorships that tends to not be the case.

DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
> it's that Russia and China are engaging in terrifying behavior, attacking and undermining their surrounding countries, promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative, making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty with their "spheres of influence" and China's ludicrous ocean claims, and on and on You're giving an extremely dramatized version of what China has actually been doing. > attacking and undermining their surrounding countries China hasn't fought a foreign war in over 40 years. That's actually pretty incredible, when you think of the fact that most major powers have fought many wars in that same timespan. > promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative I have never seen China promote a "might-makes-right" narrative. China consistently states that the United Nations framework is the basis for international relations. That's why, for example, China has never recognized Russia's occupation of Crimea - it's contrary to the UN Charter. > making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty China's territorial claims haven't expanded in many decades - since its founding. In fact, the PRC has reduced its claims over time. It inherited a bunch of border disputes from the previous government (the ROC), some of which is has resolved through negotiation (for example, with Mongolia, Vietnam and the USSR/Russia). If you look at the South China Sea dispute, for example, you might be surprised to learn that Taiwan (a.k.a., the ROC) has nearly identical territorial claims as the PRC. I say "nearly" identical, because the PRC has settled some aspects of the dispute with Vietnam through negotiation. Taiwan actually occupies the largest, most valuable island in the South China Sea.[0] The reason why China has been pouring cement on reefs is because it is a latecomer to the scramble for the South China Sea islands, and all the largest islands and reefs are already occupied by other countries, as you can see from this list: [1]. All of the countries bordering the South China Sea have extensive, overlapping claims. The US strategy is fairly successful because it comes in and offers to help various countries enforce their claims versus China. The downside for these countries is that they risk worsening their relationship with China, which is the most important economic partner for every country in the region, and that they might get dragged into a military conflict between the US and China. That's why countries in the region have gone back and forth between cozying up to the US and China. 0. Taiping Island: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_maritime_features_in_the_Spratly_Islands#Features_by_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_maritime_features_in_t...
mistermann 4y ago
When one is designing theories, it can often be useful to keep in mind that they are theories. For example: > As is the standard playbook of dictator/authoritarian apologism, you completely reverse causality here... You don't actually know the causality, because it cannot be known, it can only be predicted and believed. I think it may also not be possible to not do this, depending on the individual and their cultural/educational background. > Stop committing mass murder, rape, genocide, child abduction, theft, purposeful destruction of civilian infrastructure, and war crimes in general. You first lamow. It's usually fairly easy and non-controversial to stay grounded when one is working with computer systems (or similar), but when working with large biological systems it can be much harder to remember, which is kind of counterintuitive considering the complexity of the systems is infinitely larger. I think if one is embedded within a system, that might be the differentiating psychological factor?

by xoa 4y ago

DiogenesKynikos 4y ago

> it's that Russia and China are engaging in terrifying behavior, attacking and undermining their surrounding countries, promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative, making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty with their "spheres of influence" and China's ludicrous ocean claims, and on and on You're giving an extremely dramatized version of what China has actually been doing. > attacking and undermining their surrounding countries China hasn't fought a foreign war in over 40 years. That's actually pretty incredible, when you think of the fact that most major powers have fought many wars in that same timespan. > promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative I have never seen China promote a "might-makes-right" narrative. China consistently states that the United Nations framework is the basis for international relations. That's why, for example, China has never recognized Russia's occupation of Crimea - it's contrary to the UN Charter. > making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty China's territorial claims haven't expanded in many decades - since its founding. In fact, the PRC has reduced its claims over time. It inherited a bunch of border disputes from the previous government (the ROC), some of which is has resolved through negotiation (for example, with Mongolia, Vietnam and the USSR/Russia). If you look at the South China Sea dispute, for example, you might be surprised to learn that Taiwan (a.k.a., the ROC) has nearly identical territorial claims as the PRC. I say "nearly" identical, because the PRC has settled some aspects of the dispute with Vietnam through negotiation. Taiwan actually occupies the largest, most valuable island in the South China Sea.[0] The reason why China has been pouring cement on reefs is because it is a latecomer to the scramble for the South China Sea islands, and all the largest islands and reefs are already occupied by other countries, as you can see from this list: [1]. All of the countries bordering the South China Sea have extensive, overlapping claims. The US strategy is fairly successful because it comes in and offers to help various countries enforce their claims versus China. The downside for these countries is that they risk worsening their relationship with China, which is the most important economic partner for every country in the region, and that they might get dragged into a military conflict between the US and China. That's why countries in the region have gone back and forth between cozying up to the US and China. 0. Taiping Island: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_maritime_features_in_the_Spratly_Islands#Features_by_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_maritime_features_in_t...

mistermann 4y ago

When one is designing theories, it can often be useful to keep in mind that they are theories. For example: > As is the standard playbook of dictator/authoritarian apologism, you completely reverse causality here... You don't actually know the causality, because it cannot be known, it can only be predicted and believed. I think it may also not be possible to not do this, depending on the individual and their cultural/educational background. > Stop committing mass murder, rape, genocide, child abduction, theft, purposeful destruction of civilian infrastructure, and war crimes in general. You first lamow. It's usually fairly easy and non-controversial to stay grounded when one is working with computer systems (or similar), but when working with large biological systems it can be much harder to remember, which is kind of counterintuitive considering the complexity of the systems is infinitely larger. I think if one is embedded within a system, that might be the differentiating psychological factor?