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The CCP will not go to war in Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe ever. Younger Chinese are absolutely against it, the invasion of Ukraine has undermined everything Chin

The CCP will not go to war in Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe ever. Younger Chinese are absolutely against it, the invasion of Ukraine has undermined everything China has ever said about invasion. To mount an invasion of Taiwan would be significantly more difficult than Ukraine, and is not feasible anytime soon. In short, China cannot afford it, monetarily and they cannot afford the potential blowback in trade and investment. The only people who want to take back Taiwan are older Chinese government, and military hardliners. They are rapidly losing that battle as time goes on.

chaostheory 4y ago
Well, then it’s too bad that younger Chinese have no power at all in a dictatorship. The problem with your argument is that you’re assuming that whoever is leading China right now is rational. You would be right before Xi, but Xi is neither patient or rational. The end of the one China, two systems was totally unnecessary and reckless. I’m sure others can come up with more examples
- yellow_lead 4y ago
  A few months ago, there were widespread protests on the handling of covid in China. Since then, many covid restrictions have been eased and Hong Kong's mask policy was even recently lifted. So protesting works, and Chinese people (young/old) do have power. (A fair amount of covid protests were held by university students btw)
  - chaostheory 4y ago
    They don’t have as much power as people who can vote. Also the COVID tracking apps have been very effective at neutralizing protests like the ones over provincial bank failures. Let’s also not forget what happened to the student protesters at Tiananmen. All they have to do is get multiple army regiments from neighboring provinces, and they’ll have no qualms with massacring civilians. Because as we all know, people outside your own province and state aren’t real people /s All they have to do is declare martial law Still, I hope you’re right and that I’m very wrong
yellow_lead 4y ago
Aside from these reasons, another signal is KMT officials meeting with China on the mainland recently. It seems china would prefer to do things politically
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- everybodyknows 4y ago
  Of course politically is better -- "win without fighting". So a fifth column willing to hand over the island would be ideal. Men like certain officials of Kherson Oblast just last year, who complied with specific requests from the Kremlin.
rasz 4y ago
At least at the start of 2022 invasion Chinese internet propaganda and censorship machine was set to full russian bias. They even had official Chinese TV journalists embedded with ru forces documenting all the territorial gains. Last time I saw any mention of Chinese journalists was around July when one witnessed first hand a rather good T-72 entry into turret orbital tossing contest on theoretically secured back road around Mariupol. Up to that point all ru critical voices on Chinese internet were being actively muted, but that might have changed with Ukrainian August counter offensive. All in all its really hard to know what young Chinese people think, you can only know what government allows to publish at particular moment.
- andy_ppp 4y ago
  For all the disagreements here and possible flame wars from people on both sides, the very fact we’re allowed to discuss both sides of a conflict like this openly is a strength of our society and a weakness of theirs.
fomine3 4y ago
I sometimes see news that ultrarights on Chinese internet supports invading Taiwan and other offensive actions

chaostheory 4y ago

Well, then it’s too bad that younger Chinese have no power at all in a dictatorship. The problem with your argument is that you’re assuming that whoever is leading China right now is rational. You would be right before Xi, but Xi is neither patient or rational. The end of the one China, two systems was totally unnecessary and reckless. I’m sure others can come up with more examples

yellow_lead 4y ago
A few months ago, there were widespread protests on the handling of covid in China. Since then, many covid restrictions have been eased and Hong Kong's mask policy was even recently lifted. So protesting works, and Chinese people (young/old) do have power. (A fair amount of covid protests were held by university students btw)
- chaostheory 4y ago
  They don’t have as much power as people who can vote. Also the COVID tracking apps have been very effective at neutralizing protests like the ones over provincial bank failures. Let’s also not forget what happened to the student protesters at Tiananmen. All they have to do is get multiple army regiments from neighboring provinces, and they’ll have no qualms with massacring civilians. Because as we all know, people outside your own province and state aren’t real people /s All they have to do is declare martial law Still, I hope you’re right and that I’m very wrong

yellow_lead 4y ago

Aside from these reasons, another signal is KMT officials meeting with China on the mainland recently. It seems china would prefer to do things politically

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
everybodyknows 4y ago
Of course politically is better -- "win without fighting". So a fifth column willing to hand over the island would be ideal. Men like certain officials of Kherson Oblast just last year, who complied with specific requests from the Kremlin.

rasz 4y ago

At least at the start of 2022 invasion Chinese internet propaganda and censorship machine was set to full russian bias. They even had official Chinese TV journalists embedded with ru forces documenting all the territorial gains. Last time I saw any mention of Chinese journalists was around July when one witnessed first hand a rather good T-72 entry into turret orbital tossing contest on theoretically secured back road around Mariupol. Up to that point all ru critical voices on Chinese internet were being actively muted, but that might have changed with Ukrainian August counter offensive. All in all its really hard to know what young Chinese people think, you can only know what government allows to publish at particular moment.

andy_ppp 4y ago
For all the disagreements here and possible flame wars from people on both sides, the very fact we’re allowed to discuss both sides of a conflict like this openly is a strength of our society and a weakness of theirs.

fomine3 4y ago

I sometimes see news that ultrarights on Chinese internet supports invading Taiwan and other offensive actions