4 ms·

Deng Xiaoping created the seeds of destruction for his reforms when he crushed the peaceful democracy protesters in Tiananmen. This has led to mess after mess w

Deng Xiaoping created the seeds of destruction for his reforms when he crushed the peaceful democracy protesters in Tiananmen. This has led to mess after mess with Jiang Zemin, leading eventually to the biggest disaster of them all: Xi In an alternate timeline, one can imagine what a democratic China would look like: - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen - Chinese media would have been a strong rival to South Korea’s - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war

anonymouskimmer 4y ago
> - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. If mainland democratization happened early enough, maybe, but I don't see what a small country in Taiwan's position has to gain by merger with a larger one. > - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? Silicon Valley is kind of unique even in the USA. I've read this is because of particularly startup-friendly California laws. Is there reason to believe these startup-friendly laws would have been duplicated in Shenzhen? Or some other reason to believe Shenzhen would have turned into a Silicon Valley rival otherwise? > - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too.
- chaostheory 4y ago
  > From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. That was cemented once Xi started being reckless, leading to the end of the one China two systems policy. Prior to Xi, it wasn’t as black and white. > To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? You just answered your own question. Under authoritarianism, the government can abruptly shutdown the party at any moment for any arbitrary reason. There’s no rule of law that comes with a democracy. Also innovation needs freedom of speech. There is a cost to society and business when you’re constantly having to self censor yourself > Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too. Sure, the EU has a lot of protectionist laws, but they don’t even come close to CCP’s draconian version
fauigerzigerk 4y ago
I hesitate to say this because I'm certainly not in favour of crushing any democracy movements. But it is hard not to think that a different alternate timeline could resemble what has happened in Russia after Gorbachev did not crush the democracy movement.
geysersam 4y ago
What a shame that world didn't realize. Maybe in the next fourth years.
baybal2 4y ago
[dead]
fmajid 4y ago
Jiang was actually very pragmatic and good for the economy, building on Deng's legacy, as was Hu.
- chaostheory 4y ago
  Jiang was very pragmatic, and the world likely wouldn’t be in this mess if he was able to hold onto more power longer. However, Jiang was also extremely corrupt, and he wanted to hold onto power longer than the terms set by Deng. The man would constantly try to assassinate rivals like Hu and even Xi, which is what led to Xi’s ascension. Hu was much better, but he was also instrumental in Xi’s rise. Jiang’s Shanghai faction also took the lion’s share of funding, more of which could have gone to the inland provinces None of this would likely happen if China transitioned to a democracy.

anonymouskimmer 4y ago

> - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. If mainland democratization happened early enough, maybe, but I don't see what a small country in Taiwan's position has to gain by merger with a larger one. > - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? Silicon Valley is kind of unique even in the USA. I've read this is because of particularly startup-friendly California laws. Is there reason to believe these startup-friendly laws would have been duplicated in Shenzhen? Or some other reason to believe Shenzhen would have turned into a Silicon Valley rival otherwise? > - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too.

chaostheory 4y ago
> From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. That was cemented once Xi started being reckless, leading to the end of the one China two systems policy. Prior to Xi, it wasn’t as black and white. > To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? You just answered your own question. Under authoritarianism, the government can abruptly shutdown the party at any moment for any arbitrary reason. There’s no rule of law that comes with a democracy. Also innovation needs freedom of speech. There is a cost to society and business when you’re constantly having to self censor yourself > Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too. Sure, the EU has a lot of protectionist laws, but they don’t even come close to CCP’s draconian version

fauigerzigerk 4y ago

I hesitate to say this because I'm certainly not in favour of crushing any democracy movements. But it is hard not to think that a different alternate timeline could resemble what has happened in Russia after Gorbachev did not crush the democracy movement.

geysersam 4y ago

What a shame that world didn't realize. Maybe in the next fourth years.

baybal2 4y ago

[dead]

fmajid 4y ago

Jiang was actually very pragmatic and good for the economy, building on Deng's legacy, as was Hu.

chaostheory 4y ago
Jiang was very pragmatic, and the world likely wouldn’t be in this mess if he was able to hold onto more power longer. However, Jiang was also extremely corrupt, and he wanted to hold onto power longer than the terms set by Deng. The man would constantly try to assassinate rivals like Hu and even Xi, which is what led to Xi’s ascension. Hu was much better, but he was also instrumental in Xi’s rise. Jiang’s Shanghai faction also took the lion’s share of funding, more of which could have gone to the inland provinces None of this would likely happen if China transitioned to a democracy.