4 ms·

The ever centralisation around one man is incredibly short sighted. The Chinese system used to be much more sophisticated, having both a very capitalistic view

The ever centralisation around one man is incredibly short sighted. The Chinese system used to be much more sophisticated, having both a very capitalistic view of the world and a very communistic view. They have completely lost half of that and even the communism will disappear if things start going wrong - all that will be left is maintaining the dictatorship at all costs.

jacquesm 4y ago
There is a fair chance of that happening. But: The cult of the individual leader has always been a strong component in China historically. So it wouldn't be a new thing, more a regression to the norm.
- anonymouskimmer 4y ago
  It's been a strong component the world over. Even in the US we've got exemplars such as George Washington, FDR, and the Adams and Bush dynasties. Democracies as political-individual-leader absent as Switzerland are the exception, not the rule. And the less so for other forms of government.
  - cafard 4y ago
    The Adams dynasty? The first two incumbent presidents to lose an election?
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    I see significant differences between those. Xi is a dictator in all but name now, that does not hold for the others listed in your comment.
    - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
      Oh sure. The US governmental structure doesn't easily allow dictators. And it's much easier for an FDR-like fellow to rewrite the Chinese constitution to allow a dictator than to so rewrite the US one. FDR was probably as close as we got to a Xi like figure, who was able to bend the Supreme court to his will by realistically threatening to pack it.
chaostheory 4y ago
Deng Xiaoping created the seeds of destruction for his reforms when he crushed the peaceful democracy protesters in Tiananmen. This has led to mess after mess with Jiang Zemin, leading eventually to the biggest disaster of them all: Xi In an alternate timeline, one can imagine what a democratic China would look like: - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen - Chinese media would have been a strong rival to South Korea’s - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war
- anonymouskimmer 4y ago
  > - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. If mainland democratization happened early enough, maybe, but I don't see what a small country in Taiwan's position has to gain by merger with a larger one. > - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? Silicon Valley is kind of unique even in the USA. I've read this is because of particularly startup-friendly California laws. Is there reason to believe these startup-friendly laws would have been duplicated in Shenzhen? Or some other reason to believe Shenzhen would have turned into a Silicon Valley rival otherwise? > - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too.
  - chaostheory 4y ago
    > From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. That was cemented once Xi started being reckless, leading to the end of the one China two systems policy. Prior to Xi, it wasn’t as black and white. > To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? You just answered your own question. Under authoritarianism, the government can abruptly shutdown the party at any moment for any arbitrary reason. There’s no rule of law that comes with a democracy. Also innovation needs freedom of speech. There is a cost to society and business when you’re constantly having to self censor yourself > Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too. Sure, the EU has a lot of protectionist laws, but they don’t even come close to CCP’s draconian version
dirtyid 4y ago
>incredibly short sighted It's incredibly pragmatic, Chinese system was shit show in the 80s-10s going after easy gains while building up onerous contradictions. A lot of toes needed to be stepped on to do something as basic as military modernization, meanwhile Xi hasn't even aggregated enough political power to pass wide scale property tax. The issue isn't Xi centralizing power, but power was never sufficiently centralized, and in many ways, still isn't.

jacquesm 4y ago

There is a fair chance of that happening. But: The cult of the individual leader has always been a strong component in China historically. So it wouldn't be a new thing, more a regression to the norm.

anonymouskimmer 4y ago
It's been a strong component the world over. Even in the US we've got exemplars such as George Washington, FDR, and the Adams and Bush dynasties. Democracies as political-individual-leader absent as Switzerland are the exception, not the rule. And the less so for other forms of government.
- cafard 4y ago
  The Adams dynasty? The first two incumbent presidents to lose an election?
- jacquesm 4y ago
  I see significant differences between those. Xi is a dictator in all but name now, that does not hold for the others listed in your comment.
  - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
    Oh sure. The US governmental structure doesn't easily allow dictators. And it's much easier for an FDR-like fellow to rewrite the Chinese constitution to allow a dictator than to so rewrite the US one. FDR was probably as close as we got to a Xi like figure, who was able to bend the Supreme court to his will by realistically threatening to pack it.

chaostheory 4y ago

Deng Xiaoping created the seeds of destruction for his reforms when he crushed the peaceful democracy protesters in Tiananmen. This has led to mess after mess with Jiang Zemin, leading eventually to the biggest disaster of them all: Xi In an alternate timeline, one can imagine what a democratic China would look like: - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen - Chinese media would have been a strong rival to South Korea’s - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war

anonymouskimmer 4y ago
> - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. If mainland democratization happened early enough, maybe, but I don't see what a small country in Taiwan's position has to gain by merger with a larger one. > - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? Silicon Valley is kind of unique even in the USA. I've read this is because of particularly startup-friendly California laws. Is there reason to believe these startup-friendly laws would have been duplicated in Shenzhen? Or some other reason to believe Shenzhen would have turned into a Silicon Valley rival otherwise? > - the Chinese domestic market would have been opened up to the world long ago Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too.
- chaostheory 4y ago
  > From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. That was cemented once Xi started being reckless, leading to the end of the one China two systems policy. Prior to Xi, it wasn’t as black and white. > To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway? You just answered your own question. Under authoritarianism, the government can abruptly shutdown the party at any moment for any arbitrary reason. There’s no rule of law that comes with a democracy. Also innovation needs freedom of speech. There is a cost to society and business when you’re constantly having to self censor yourself > Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too. Sure, the EU has a lot of protectionist laws, but they don’t even come close to CCP’s draconian version

dirtyid 4y ago

>incredibly short sighted It's incredibly pragmatic, Chinese system was shit show in the 80s-10s going after easy gains while building up onerous contradictions. A lot of toes needed to be stepped on to do something as basic as military modernization, meanwhile Xi hasn't even aggregated enough political power to pass wide scale property tax. The issue isn't Xi centralizing power, but power was never sufficiently centralized, and in many ways, still isn't.