4 ms·

As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID. Casualization != correlation. People banged a lot back then as they were stuck in home with money

As a reference, in the West, child births exploded in COVID. Casualization != correlation. People banged a lot back then as they were stuck in home with money in their pockets and nothing to do outside, and getting cheap loans for real estate was not a problem, so having kids didn't seem like a bad decision, not because they had more confidence in their government. Though during covid and lockdowns a lot of couples also broke up. This trend has rapidly came to a halt in 2022 to 2203, with the war in Ukraine, inflation, high mortgage rates, insane energy bills, high food prices, exploding costs of rents and buying real estate, unavailable housing, longer waiting times in the healthcare system and a shortage of staff, layoffs, hiring freezes or stagnating wages in the private sector, etc. With the way things happened last in the last 12 months, average people really lost hope in the government, the economy and in the future and aren't rushing to have kids at all. Though I'm only talking about Europe, not "the west". Maybe things might be different elsewhere like US, Canada or Australia.

NicoJuicy 4y ago
Most people didn't bang with strangers in COVID because of restrictions, i remember just after COVID very well what the consequence was :p Couples decided in COVID to go for the first kid ( or subsequent). The ones that banged for boredom still use protection... Having a kid is a choice here, not something that just happens. People have protection ;) You're just affirming my statement. Since the war in Ukraine ( after COVID) it dropped, it comes from insecurity. So, those in China are insecure too, for the reason I stated. Note : i didn't verify numbers, just explained the sentiment.
- onetokeoverthe 4y ago
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- t0bia_s 4y ago
  Fertility rate dropped because its long trend, at least in EU. Ukraine is not a problem (if you dont read news), inflation cause worries for families much more. https://www.humanfertility.org/Data/STFF https://www.humanfertility.org/Data/STFF Also, something else caused overall fertility drop rate in 2022, but that is another topic. https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/more-natality-data-from-other-countries https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/more-natality-data-from-o...
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago
    A child boom != fertility rate.
- dylanzhangdev 4y ago
  China's birth rate has experienced a serious decline, but as the economy recovers, people may become more confident in a few years. The government is also encouraging childbearing, but I think the main problem is that the cost of getting married (house, car) and raising children is too high. As a 1980-1990 generation, the general idea is to have multiple children, especially in countryside and small towns. Most of my elementary school and high school classmates in my hometown have 2 children, and a few have 3 children. But personally, my wife and I have absolutely no intention of having a second child.
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago
    Thanks for the info. I was aware of the raised limit ( one - child policy -> 2 and now 3), fyi. I would guess that their last child wasn't born in the last years, but eg. Before or at the start of COVID? ( Raw guess)
    - dylanzhangdev 4y ago
      There will be a lot less during the pandemic, and there is only one example next to me. But I estimate that it will increase later. As for how many children a family has, it is not too related to economic conditions, but more to the perception of both husband and wife, pressure from parents, or the influence of people around you (if your friends and colleagues around you have two children, and everyone advises you to have another one, you are likely to change your mind, especially in villages and small towns). In big cities, relationships are a little simpler. ）
      - NicoJuicy 4y ago
        Yes, not according to what I'm aware of, population is moving more and more to big cities. If I'm understanding it correctly, it means that the social pressure decreased too?

NicoJuicy 4y ago

Most people didn't bang with strangers in COVID because of restrictions, i remember just after COVID very well what the consequence was :p Couples decided in COVID to go for the first kid ( or subsequent). The ones that banged for boredom still use protection... Having a kid is a choice here, not something that just happens. People have protection ;) You're just affirming my statement. Since the war in Ukraine ( after COVID) it dropped, it comes from insecurity. So, those in China are insecure too, for the reason I stated. Note : i didn't verify numbers, just explained the sentiment.

onetokeoverthe 4y ago
[dead]
t0bia_s 4y ago
Fertility rate dropped because its long trend, at least in EU. Ukraine is not a problem (if you dont read news), inflation cause worries for families much more. https://www.humanfertility.org/Data/STFF https://www.humanfertility.org/Data/STFF Also, something else caused overall fertility drop rate in 2022, but that is another topic. https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/more-natality-data-from-other-countries https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/more-natality-data-from-o...
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  A child boom != fertility rate.
dylanzhangdev 4y ago
China's birth rate has experienced a serious decline, but as the economy recovers, people may become more confident in a few years. The government is also encouraging childbearing, but I think the main problem is that the cost of getting married (house, car) and raising children is too high. As a 1980-1990 generation, the general idea is to have multiple children, especially in countryside and small towns. Most of my elementary school and high school classmates in my hometown have 2 children, and a few have 3 children. But personally, my wife and I have absolutely no intention of having a second child.
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  Thanks for the info. I was aware of the raised limit ( one - child policy -> 2 and now 3), fyi. I would guess that their last child wasn't born in the last years, but eg. Before or at the start of COVID? ( Raw guess)
  - dylanzhangdev 4y ago
    There will be a lot less during the pandemic, and there is only one example next to me. But I estimate that it will increase later. As for how many children a family has, it is not too related to economic conditions, but more to the perception of both husband and wife, pressure from parents, or the influence of people around you (if your friends and colleagues around you have two children, and everyone advises you to have another one, you are likely to change your mind, especially in villages and small towns). In big cities, relationships are a little simpler. ）
    - NicoJuicy 4y ago
      Yes, not according to what I'm aware of, population is moving more and more to big cities. If I'm understanding it correctly, it means that the social pressure decreased too?