This argument can be backtested, sort of. AI is novel technology, but information technology in general has been on a wild run for now 2~3 decades. One would ex

This argument can be backtested, sort of. AI is novel technology, but information technology in general has been on a wild run for now 2~3 decades. One would expect the advances in information technology to result in significant productivity increases that would affect the entire economy and likely result in unemployment. None of that has happened. Productivity increases from digital technology growth are really hard to detect. In fact the same period that featured the most significant growth in digital technology is also the period where productivity increases in developed economies stagnated. Pmarca's explanation predicts that - if large and growing parts of the economy are blocked to technological improvements then no matter how much technology improvements we develop it won't affect the economy in the aggregate. This was true for the last three decades. Hard to see why it wouldn't be true also going forward.