3 ms·
The reason technology doesn't net destroy jobs is that things that destroy jobs lower costs, which leaves people with more money in their pockets, which creates
by onion2k 4y ago
The reason technology doesn't net destroy jobs is that things that destroy jobs lower costs, which leaves people with more money in their pockets, which creates jobs.
This is true so long as two other things are also true;
- There needs to be something else for people to do instead. In the case of the industrial revolution power looms in factories replaced home weavers, but the factories were huge and could employ all the weavers and more. The factories created more jobs than they destroyed. In the case of AI that isn't immediately true, nor is it obvious that it's going to be true in the short term. So far we can only envisage the destruction of jobs.
- Secondly, the lowering of costs only puts money in people's pockets if the very wealthy don't hoard it for themselves. There are trillions sitting around doing nothing for the economy according to leaks like the Panama Papers. AI could potentially just make those numbers a bit bigger while everyone else starves.
In the long term I'm reasonably optimistic. I think society will organize around AI to let computers do things and we'll settle on an alternative model to 'time worked = money', whether that's something like UBI or artistic patronage or whatever really. I think that's 50 years away. We'll only get to that because in the short term it's going to be painful though.
- AnthonyMouse 4y ago> There needs to be something else for people to do instead. This is trivially the case. We still need people to build housing and fell trees for lumber and grow food. But let's suppose AI could do all that. Then those things would be available at trivial cost because they require no labor. You could work for one day at minimum wage and cover your food and housing costs for a year. > Secondly, the lowering of costs only puts money in people's pockets if the very wealthy don't hoard it for themselves. Hoarding money isn't the root of the problem because money isn't resources, it's just paper or bits. If you print a trillion dollars and give it to Bill Gates to stuff in his nefarious mattress, not that much changes. The true evil is artificial scarcity. But that's an entirely separate problem which is already happening independent of automation. Suppose there is plenty of labor available to build new housing but you have a law against building new housing. Then people have neither jobs nor housing and get screwed. The thing screwing them is the law, not the AI.