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Look again at NY and see when the preponderance of deaths happened. Right when the pandemic broke out, U.S. citizens were forced to come home from abroad, and m
by mbgerring 4y ago
Look again at NY and see when the preponderance of deaths happened. Right when the pandemic broke out, U.S. citizens were forced to come home from abroad, and many of them transited through airports in New York. If you recall the images from those airports at the time, people, many of whom were probably infected, were packed shoulder to shoulder. New York’s shelter in place restrictions weren’t in place at that point. New York City was slammed with a wave of sickness and death unparalleled anywhere else shortly afterwards.
New York has been an outlier in the data the entire length of the pandemic for this reason. If you look at the totality of per-capita hospitalizations and deaths over the last several years, its obvious that shelter-in-place restrictions absolutely made a difference.
- mbgerring 4y agoIt’s wild how you can clearly see what I described here on a chart, but people are downvoting this comment.
- thunky 4y agoI didn't downvote, but I think your comment doesn't object to the idea that it's just not simple to determine what policies worked. You could probably find an asterisk to put next to any state (based on age, density, data quality, etc, etc). And that's before you even try to measure the negative effects of lockdown against the positives in your analysis. I think it's important that every new policy is looked at critically, even if it was created under duress and with good intentions.