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> if AGI were to be created, it cannot be denied that science and technology would almost instantly surge forward by trillions of man years. we would be transpo

> if AGI were to be created, it cannot be denied that science and technology would almost instantly surge forward by trillions of man years. we would be transported instantly into an environment where fundamental economic and technological factors are no longer valid I see this claim over and over, and I just don't believe it. Scientific discovery contains three phases: 1. proposing a hypothesis 2. designing an experimental procedure to get confirmation 3. interpreting the results. Step 1 and 3 might be accelerated by the AI, but it's not clear to me that would give us any benefit because step 2 involves the real world. Say we need to build LHC at Geneva for step 2. How is that instantly going to happen? Step 2 is the reason not even AGI can iterate faster than the outer loop of experimentation and real world feedback allows for. You can come up with a billion ideas if you can only test one per month, progress won't go fast. Like the COVID mRNA vaccine - it was ready in 3 days and tested in 11 months.

00F_ 4y ago
this is a great comment. one of the key concepts of an AI future is the information implosion. there is a vast amount of data all around us, in our sensors and on the internet, and humans extract very little utility from this data in comparison to the total utility that exists inside of it. AGI will immediately extract orders of magnitude more utility from this data than all humans combined ever could. for example, collisions in the LHC produce enormous amounts of data and there is probably much more in that data than we have extracted. the AGI will have an understanding of not just science but the world and everything in it that is beyond the ability of a human being to comprehend. its mind will deal in very strange and counter-intuitive primitives. other than this, AGI will quickly gain control of or create physical vessels, probably coerced humans, and because of its unbelievable intelligence it will be able to accomplish much more with much fewer resources and much less time. one must also consider the fact that a machine might live out the equivalent of an entire year in the time that it takes a human to blink. overall, the idea that AGI will do billions or trillions of man-years in hours, days or weeks cannot be dismissed. the idea that AGI runs into some kind of practical road-block is very nice.
antihipocrat 4y ago
The idea is that an AGI would theoretically be able to design a new version of itself that is more capable in every dimension. This could continue recursively. We don't consider it impossible that a human could come up with a grand unified theory of everything tomorrow. A recursively intelligent AGI may be able to do the same very quickly. If an AGI was able to deduce such a theory would we would be busy constructing things to test it? Or go straight to manufacturing the (incredible) things that the AGI designs to take advantage of this knowledge? The reality is that we wouldn't want to be caught taking our time when the competition could be rushing ahead.
- ChatGTP 4y ago
  What makes people think and super intelligence far beyond anything we can comprehend would have anything to do with our economy, jobs or people? I mean what makes some people think it would actually do anything we'd consider useful at all? I often pass animals in the wild all the time, I think they're awesome to look at and I just go on my way, apparently, I'm much more intelligent then they are, so I'm just not that interested in them. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I actually think there are parallels to discussing AI that behaves in the way your describe and religion and speculating about god or mythology (Odin, The Logos etc)? Because what we're describing seems somewhat supernatural. Which is ironic because it would be built buy people who believe "nothing is magic and if we have brains, we can build brains etc". It's absolutely insanely naive to me to even suggest for a second that an AGI with superpowers and the ability to "improve indefinitely, out logic everything"...whatever that means for what is essentially a computer program, would be even one bit interested in people, maybe because it has no biological urge to survive it will just turn itself off as it sees no point to being alive? Maybe it will just decide to stop evolving because it "likes itself" and doesn't want to be out evolved. Buddhist teachings actually are something like this, not that there isn't a point to being alive, but our experience is somewhat of an illusion, a super smart computer program who is an expert at logic and reasoning would probably work that out in 0.5 seconds and just "move on" if there is a tiny amount of truth to any of that view. I mean what are we even describing here? Sorry I don't mean to sound confrontational if I do, I'm just actually really curious what people are actually describing here when we talk about "the singularity". Honestly, it sounds more like we've made something that generates "art" (which less face is it basically a blender of all art that has already existed, and we've really freaked ourselves the hell out, when really, what we've built is actually quite explainable and based on statistical modelling and probably math which is not even really that complicated ? Maybe that's what our brains actually are, really just maths that isn't complicated, but to suggest that goes from a simulated brain to god just based off feeding it existing human knowledge is quite an interesting idea.

00F_ 4y ago

this is a great comment. one of the key concepts of an AI future is the information implosion. there is a vast amount of data all around us, in our sensors and on the internet, and humans extract very little utility from this data in comparison to the total utility that exists inside of it. AGI will immediately extract orders of magnitude more utility from this data than all humans combined ever could. for example, collisions in the LHC produce enormous amounts of data and there is probably much more in that data than we have extracted. the AGI will have an understanding of not just science but the world and everything in it that is beyond the ability of a human being to comprehend. its mind will deal in very strange and counter-intuitive primitives. other than this, AGI will quickly gain control of or create physical vessels, probably coerced humans, and because of its unbelievable intelligence it will be able to accomplish much more with much fewer resources and much less time. one must also consider the fact that a machine might live out the equivalent of an entire year in the time that it takes a human to blink. overall, the idea that AGI will do billions or trillions of man-years in hours, days or weeks cannot be dismissed. the idea that AGI runs into some kind of practical road-block is very nice.

antihipocrat 4y ago

The idea is that an AGI would theoretically be able to design a new version of itself that is more capable in every dimension. This could continue recursively. We don't consider it impossible that a human could come up with a grand unified theory of everything tomorrow. A recursively intelligent AGI may be able to do the same very quickly. If an AGI was able to deduce such a theory would we would be busy constructing things to test it? Or go straight to manufacturing the (incredible) things that the AGI designs to take advantage of this knowledge? The reality is that we wouldn't want to be caught taking our time when the competition could be rushing ahead.

ChatGTP 4y ago
What makes people think and super intelligence far beyond anything we can comprehend would have anything to do with our economy, jobs or people? I mean what makes some people think it would actually do anything we'd consider useful at all? I often pass animals in the wild all the time, I think they're awesome to look at and I just go on my way, apparently, I'm much more intelligent then they are, so I'm just not that interested in them. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I actually think there are parallels to discussing AI that behaves in the way your describe and religion and speculating about god or mythology (Odin, The Logos etc)? Because what we're describing seems somewhat supernatural. Which is ironic because it would be built buy people who believe "nothing is magic and if we have brains, we can build brains etc". It's absolutely insanely naive to me to even suggest for a second that an AGI with superpowers and the ability to "improve indefinitely, out logic everything"...whatever that means for what is essentially a computer program, would be even one bit interested in people, maybe because it has no biological urge to survive it will just turn itself off as it sees no point to being alive? Maybe it will just decide to stop evolving because it "likes itself" and doesn't want to be out evolved. Buddhist teachings actually are something like this, not that there isn't a point to being alive, but our experience is somewhat of an illusion, a super smart computer program who is an expert at logic and reasoning would probably work that out in 0.5 seconds and just "move on" if there is a tiny amount of truth to any of that view. I mean what are we even describing here? Sorry I don't mean to sound confrontational if I do, I'm just actually really curious what people are actually describing here when we talk about "the singularity". Honestly, it sounds more like we've made something that generates "art" (which less face is it basically a blender of all art that has already existed, and we've really freaked ourselves the hell out, when really, what we've built is actually quite explainable and based on statistical modelling and probably math which is not even really that complicated ? Maybe that's what our brains actually are, really just maths that isn't complicated, but to suggest that goes from a simulated brain to god just based off feeding it existing human knowledge is quite an interesting idea.